Summary of Predictions: 1998 Elections to the U.S. House of Representatives
The Center for Voting and Democracy: Revised August 1998
Following is a list of U.S. House districts. The districts are grouped in states according to our predictions for the 1998 elections -- predictions are the same as when first released in July 1997 except for uncontested races, those races where a special election has been held and open seats. Groupings are by: "uncontested win" (no major party opposition); "landslide winner" (victory margin of at least 20%); "comfortable winner" (margin of at least 10%); "win;" "vulnerable"; and "underdog." Predictions are based almost entirely on the data provided here: the incumbent's performance in recent elections and Bill Clinton's relative performance in the district in his presidential races.
The key below is designed to interpret how the data is presented. It is important to stress that the presidential election data is not a measure of Bill Clinton's coattails. Rather, it is simply a reliable means to measure the partisan nature of districts and any changes -- usually small -- that took place
in this partisan nature between 1992 and 1996. Barring dramatic national developments, these predictions are subject to change only if an incumbent does not run or is involved in a major scandal.
click here to go to key to explain symbols
| Seats | Current Split GOP-Dem. | 1996 Results: Landslide (U*) | 1998 Prediction: Landslide/ Uncontested Win (R-D) | 1998 Prediction: Comfortable Win | 1998 Prediction: Win(R-D) | 1998 Prediction: Vulnerable/ Underdog (R-D) | |
| Alabama | 7 | 5 - 2 | 4 (4) | 4 (3 - 1) | 0 | 2 (2 - 0) | 1 (0 - 1) |
| Alaska | 1 | 1 - 0 | 1 (1) | 0 | 1 (1 - 0) | 0 | 0 |
| Arizona | 6 | 5 - 1 | 5 (4) | 4 (3 - 1) | 1 (1 - 0) | 0 | 1 (1 - 0) |
| Arkansas | 4 | 2 - 2 | 1 | 2 (1 - 1) | 0 | 1 (1 - 0) | 1 (0 - 1) |
| California | 52 | 23 - 29 | 38 (35) | 34 (14-20) | 6 (4 - 2) | 2 (2 - 0) | 10 (3 - 7) |
| Colorado | 6 | 4 - 2 | 3 (3) | 3 (2 - 1) | 2 (2 - 0) | 0 | 1 (0 - 1) |
| Connecticut | 6 | 2 - 4 | 3 (3) | 1 (0 - 1) | 1 (0 - 1) | 2 (1 - 1) | 2 (1 - 1) |
| Delaware | 1 | 1 - 0 | 1 (1) | 1 (1 - 0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida | 23 | 15 - 8 | 20 (16) | 20 (14-6) | 2 (0 - 2) | 1 (1 - 0) | 0 |
| Georgia | 11 | 8 - 3 | 5 (4) | 6 (5 - 1) | 2 (1 - 1) | 0 | 3 (2 - 1) |
| Hawaii | 2 | 0 - 2 | 1 (1) | 1 (0 - 1) | 0 | 1 (0 - 1) | 0 |
| Idaho | 2 | 2 - 0 | 1 (1) | 0 | 1 (1 - 0) | 1 (1 - 0) | 0 |
| Illinois | 20 | 10 - 10 | 14 (10) | 13 (6 - 7) | 3 (2 - 1) | 0 | 4 (2 - 2) |
| Indiana | 10 | 6 - 4 | 4 (2) | 5 (4 - 1) | 1 (1 - 0) | 0 | 4 (1 - 3) |
| Iowa | 5 | 4 - 1 | 1 (1) | 1 (1 - 0) | 0 | 0 | 4 (3 - 1) |
| Kansas | 4 | 4 - 0 | 1 (0) | 1 (1 - 0) | 0 | 1 (1 - 0) | 2 (2 - 0) |
| Kentucky | 6 | 5 - 1 | 2 (2) | 2 (2 - 0) | 1 (1 - 0) | 0 | 3 (2 - 1) |
| Louisiana | 7 | 5 - 2 | 5 (5) | 2 (1 - 1) | 5 (4 - 1) | 0 | 0 |
| Maine | 2 | 0 - 2 | 1 (0) | 0 | 2 (0 - 2) | 0 | 0 |
| Maryland | 8 | 4 - 4 | 6 (6) | 6 (3 - 3) | 2 (1 - 1) | 0 | 0 |
| Mass. | 10 | 0 - 10 | 6 (6) | 6 (0 - 6) | 2 (0 - 2) | 2 (0 - 2) | 0 |
| Michigan | 16 | 6 - 10 | 11 (7) | 9 (4 - 5) | 3 (2 - 1) | 3 (0 - 3) | 1 (0 - 1) |
| Minnesota | 8 | 2 - 6 | 5 (3) | 3 (1 - 2) | 3 (0 - 3) | 0 | 2 (1 - 1) |
| Mississippi | 5 | 3 - 2 | 4 (2) | 3 (2 - 1) | 0 | 2 (1 - 1) | 0 |
| Missouri | 9 | 4 - 5 | 7 (4) | 5 (2 - 3) | 3 (1 - 2) | 1 (1 - 0) | 0 |
| Montana | 1 | 1 - 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 (1 - 0) | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 3 | 3 - 0 | 2 (2) | 2 (2 - 0) | 1 (1 - 0) | 0 | 0 |
| Nevada | 2 | 2 - 0 | 1 (0) | 1 (1 - 0) | 0 | 0 | 1 (1 - 0) |
| New Hamp. | 2 | 2 - 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 (2 - 0) |
| New Jersey | 13 | 7 - 6 | 9 (9) | 8 (3 - 5) | 3 (2 - 1) | 1 (1 - 0) | 1 (1 - 0) |
| New Mexico | 3 | 3 - 0 | 1 (1) | 0 | 1 (1 - 0) | 1 (1 - 0) | 1 (1 - 0) |
| New York | 31 | 13 - 18 | 21 (18) | 16 (2 - 14) | 5 (2 - 3) | 8 (7 - 1) | 2 (2 - 0) |
| N.Carolina | 12 | 6 - 6 | 7 (5) | 2 (2 - 0) | 6 (4 - 2) | 3 (0 - 3) | 1 (0 - 1) |
| N.Dakota | 1 | 0 - 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 (0 - 1) |
| Ohio | 19 | 11 - 8 | 13 (11) | 12 (8 - 4) | 0 | 2 (1 - 1) | 5 (2 - 3) |
| Oklahoma | 6 | 6 - 0 | 3 (3) | 3 (3 - 0) | 2 (2 - 0) | 0 | 1 (1 - 0) |
| Oregon | 5 | 1 - 4 | 3 (2) | 2 (0 - 2) | 1 (1 - 0) | 0 | 2 (0 - 2) |
| Penn. | 21 | 10 - 11 | 15 (13) | 14 (7 - 7) | 3 (0 - 3) | 1 (1 - 0) | 4 (2 - 1) |
| Rhode Island | 2 | 0 - 2 | 2 (0) | 2 (0 - 2) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| S.Carolina | 6 | 4 - 2 | 5 (5) | 5 (4 - 1) | 0 | 0 | 1 (0 - 1) |
| S.Dakota | 1 | 1 - 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 (1 - 0) | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 9 | 5 - 4 | 6 (4) | 6 (3 - 3) | 2 (2 - 0) | 0 | 1 (0 - 1) |
| Texas | 30 | 13 - 17 | 18 (13) | 19 (10 - 9) | 4 (2 - 2) | 2 (0 - 2) | 5 (1 - 4) |
| Utah | 3 | 3 - 0 | 1 (1) | 2 (2 - 0) | 1 (1 - 0) | 0 | 0 |
| Vermont | 1 | 0 - 0 - 1** | 1 (0) | 0 | 0 | 1 (0 - 0 -1**) | 0 |
| Virginia | 11 | 5 - 6 | 11 (7) | 10 (5 - 5) | 1 (0 - 1) | 0 | 0 |
| Washington | 9 | 6 - 3 | 3 (2) | 3 (1 - 2) | 0 | 2 (2 - 0) | 4 (3 - 1) |
| W.Virginia | 3 | 0 - 3 | 3 (3) | 3 (0 - 3) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 9 | 4 - 5 | 3 (3) | 3 (2 - 1) | 0 | 2 (0 - 2) | 4 (2 - 2) |
| Wyoming | 1 | 1 - 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 (1 - 0) | 0 | 0 |
| USA | 435 | 228 - 206 - 1 | 279 (223) | 235 (124 - 111) | 82 (48 - 34) | 44 (20 - 23 - 1) | 74 (36 - 38) |
click here to go to key to explain symbols
*
U: "Untouchable" (a landslide winner -- victory marginof at least 20% -- in at least last two elections)** Bernie Sanders (VT) is an independent
Produced in July 1997 by
THE CENTER FOR VOTING AND DEMOCRACY
