Debbie Stabenow became the first to defeat a House incumbent in a
Michigan general election since 1984, while Carolyn Kilpatrick was one of two challengers
around the nation to defeat an incumbent in a primary in 1996 -- three of five incumbents
defeated in primaries in 1994-1996 were black. The state trended Democratic in 1996, but
four Democrats may face tough competition in 1998. Three-quarters of the delegation should
win comfortably.
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| PREDICTION: Uncontested Win (2: 2R) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996: | 1994: | 1992: | Clinton: | First: | |
| 2. Peter Hoekstra (R)* | 65% | 75% | 63% | 41% (-8, up 1) | 1992 |
| 4. Dave Camp (R)* | 65% | 73% | 63% | 47% (-2, up 3) | 1990 |
| PREDICTION: Landslide Win (7: 2R, 5D) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996: | 1994: | 1992: | Clinton: | First: | |
| {3. Vern Ehlers (R)}* | 69% | 74% | - | 39% (-10, down 1) | 1993 |
| 5. James Barcia (D)* | 70% | 65% | 60% | 53% (+4, up 2) | 1992 |
| 6. Fred Upton (R)* | 68% | 73% | 62% | 46% (-3, 0) | 1986 |
| 13. Lynn Rivers (D)* | 57% | 52% | - | 57% (+8, up 2) | 1994 |
| 14. John Conyers (D)* | 86% | 82% | 82% | 86% (+37, up 1) | 1964 |
| 15. Carolyn Kilpatrick (D) | 88% | - | - | 86% (+37, down 3) | 1996 |
| 16. John Dingell (D)* | 62% | 59% | 65% | 54% (+5, down 4) | 1955 |
| PREDICTION: Comfortable Win (3: 2R, 1D) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996: | 1994: | 1992: | Clinton: | First: | |
| 1. Bart Stupak (D)* | 71% | 57% | 54% | 47% (-2, down 1) | 1992 |
| 7. Nick Smith (R)* | 55% | 65% | 88% (U) | 45% (-4, up 1) | 1992 |
| 11. Joe Knollenberg (R)* | 61% | 68% | 58% | 46% (-3, up 3) | 1992 |
| PREDICTION: Win (3: 3D) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996: | 1994: | 1992: | Clinton: | First: | |
| 9. Dale Kildee (D)* | 59% (L) | 51% | 54% | 52% (+3, up 2) | 1976 |
| 10. David Bonior (D)* | 54% (C) | 62% | 53% | 48% (-1, up 6) | 1976 |
| 12. Sander Levin (D)* | 57% | 52% | 53% | 53% (+4, up 5) | 1982 |
| PREDICTION: Vulnerable (1: 1D) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996: | 1994: | 1992: | Clinton: | First: | |
| 8. Debbie Stabenow (D) | 54% | - | - | 49% (0, up 2) | 1996 |
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