Monopoly
Politics 2000
Revised April 2001
Introduction
In Monopoly
Politics 2000, we
provide a state-by-state, district-by-district
guide to U.S. House races. We show the history of
elections in each district in the 1990s -- chosen to
reflect a full cycle of redistricting -- and predict
winners and victory margins in the great majority of
House races. As in 1998, our predictions proved extremely
accurate.
Our
previous report, Monopoly
Politics 1998, is also on
our web site, including our predictions made
before the 1998 elections and a range of factsheets that
support our thesis about what determines the lion's
share of a candidate's percentage of the vote.
Of the 361 races where we predicted winners in
July 1997
-- 16 months before the election -- 358
(99%) won. Of these winners,
346 (96%) won by
comfortable margins of at least 10%. Of the three
predicted winners who lost, two were in open seat
elections; of
the 340
incumbents predicted to win in 1997 who ended up running
for re-election, 339 won.
Our
predictions are based on a straightforward idea, but one
that still can surprise some observers: most people are
grounded in their political views and consistent in
their voting patterns over time, particularly at any
given level of election. If one can find an accurate
measure of what we call "district
partisanship" -- the partisan leanings of voters in
a district -- then most districts tilt toward one major
party or the other. In the 1990's, the district
partisanship in U.S. House races can be measured with
remarkable accuracy, given the simplicity of the method.
(Please see "glossary
/ how we make predictions " for more
information.)
The
lesson for reformers -- along with participants in the
political horserace -- is that the landscape of
elections is extremely important. The landscape is the
voters. If you are with the right party in the right
district, you probably will win. Even if you are a
highly-qualified and well-funded candidate, you will
lose if running in a district that tilts too heavily
toward the other party. This report provides information
on the landscape of congressional elections in the
United States. By implication, it raises important
questions about reforms that must be addressed to give
voters more and better choices.
To see our predictions for the November 2000
elections and the electoral history of districts in a
given state, please use the links below.
Predictions
Frames
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