Accuracy of Predictions Made in Monopoly Politics 2000April 2001 In August 2000, the Center for Voting and Democracy predicted the winning party and winning percentage in 368 of the 435 Congressional races in the Monopoly Politics 2000 report. We correctly predicted the winner in over 99% of the races and the winning margin in over 98% of the races, all without using any information about campaign financing, strength of opponent or any specifics about the race. |
|
Prediction |
|
Races |
Correct |
Percent |
Incorrect |
|
Landslide |
>20% |
235 |
235 |
100.0% |
|
|
Comfortable |
>10% |
89 |
88 |
98.9% |
UT-2, open seat in a Rep district won by a
Dem |
|
Win |
Win |
43 |
41 |
95.3% |
AR-4 loss by 2%; CT-2 loss by
1% |
| Total |
367 |
364 |
99.2% |
Accuracy of
Predicted Winning Margins
|
Prediction |
|
Races |
Correct |
Percent |
Incorrect |
|
Landslide |
>20% |
235 |
234 |
99.6% |
IL-18 won by only
18% |
|
Comfortable |
>10% |
89 |
86 |
95.6% |
CA-20 won by only 7%; MD-8 won by only 7%, UT-2
see above |
|
Win |
Win |
43 |
41 |
95.3% |
AR-4 see above; CT-2 see above |
| Total |
367 |
361 |
98.1% |
|
You can download a Microsoft Excel file listing the predictions and outcomes for all 50 states.
|
