In the governor's race this year,
independent Cornelius "Con" Hogan is poised to siphon off what may
be enough votes to keep either Republican State Treasurer Jim
Douglas or Democratic Lt. Gov. Doug Racine from achieving a clear
majority.
In an even closer
contest, for lieutenant governor, Democratic state Sen. Peter
Shumlin, Republican Brian Dubie and Progressive Anthony Pollina are
running neck and neck in the polls.
As a result, the
first votes that state senators and representatives cast when the
Legislature convenes in January could be to determine who will fill
either or both of Vermont's two top jobs.
About 70 times
since the state was founded, candidates for state officer positions
such as treasurer, auditor of accounts, governor and lieutenant
governor have been elected by legislators without receiving the
majority vote of at least "50 percent plus one" from Vermont voters.
It has played out
since the state's first democratic election in 1778, when the
lieutenant governor and treasurer candidates failed to capture a
majority, to as recently as 1998, with the lieutenant governor race
in 1998.
In interviews
conducted over the past few weeks, Windham County Senate and House
candidates revealed the factors that will guide their decision, if
called upon to elect the governor and lieutenant governor.
Of the county's
Senate hopefuls, most indicated they would vote for the candidate
who receives the most votes statewide.
Norman Wright, a
Westminster Republican, said while he was a legislator, in 1976, he
was called upon to chose between lieutenant governor candidates T.
Garry Buckley, a Republican, and John Alden, a Democrat, after
Alden, pulled in 48.4 percent over Buckley's 47.6 percent.
Wright said he
voted for Buckley, who was eventually elected.
But Wright said
that if the situation arises this year, he will vote for the
candidate who receives the statewide plurality. If the votes are
tied or too close to indicate a true popular vote, he continued, he
would look to the Windham County results to determine how to cast
his ballot.
"I'm not going to
vote in a way that solely reflects my own thinking unless these two
options aren't available," he added.
Democratic Senate
candidate Rod Gander of Brattleboro said he, too, would vote for the
candidate with the largest statewide numbers.
"I hope that these
votes don't go to the legislators, but I feel that the person who
gets the most votes statewide should be elected," said Gander.
Fellow Democrat
Jeanette White of Putney also said that the state plurality will be
her guideline.
"Even though I'm
representing Windham County, I think it's pretty clear that as
senators, we should honor the wishes of the entire state," she said.
Only Republican
Mike Hebert of Vernon said Windham County's voting results would
determine the name on his ballot, although he added that it would be
a matter that would require some careful consideration.
"You're elected by
Windham County, and that's who you're representing in Montpelier, so
I'd really have to debate with myself on that," Hebert said. "I've
never been a habitual party voter and I don't see any prohibition on
(voting with the county)."
Earlier in the
campaign, Hebert was quoted as saying he would not vote for Shumlin
"as a matter of conscience," even if Shumlin received the plurality.
"It's a real dilemma for me, I'd have to go to the next guy. I'd
vote for Anthony if he was the second guy," Hebert told one
newspaper.
On the subject of
the secret ballot, Hebert, Gander and White all said that they would
publicly reveal who they voted for. Wright said that any concerned
individual would be able to determine the nature of his vote by
looking at the statewide totals.
"I wouldn't
release my ballot, because I'm telling people now how I would vote,"
he said. "I have some problems with the process of secret ballot and
making it public. In 1976, (former Brattleboro Reformer managing
editor) Norman Runnion came up to me on the House floor and asked me
how I voted -- I told him it was none of his business. If this was
supposed to be a process of voice vote, then that's what the state
constitution would have said."
Responses from
incumbent and challenger House candidates on what factors would
influence their ballot brought a range of responses, from those who
said they would vote with their county constituents to those who
would vote for the candidate with the largest statewide result, and
those who said they would need to analyze the issue and speak with
district voters before casting a ballot.
No candidate
indicated that they would vote strictly along party lines.
Those who said
they would follow the district results were moderate Republican
Windham-6 candidate Roger Allbee, Democratic Windham-5 incumbent
Steve Darrow, Republican Windham-1 incumbent Patricia O'Donnell,
Democratic Windham-2 incumbent Bob Rusten, and Republican Windham-2
candidate Chris Richter.
Most said their
vote would reflect the wishes of their district's constituency.
"I would vote the
way the people in my district want me to vote," Richter said. "The
number one job of any representative is to represent his
constituents and to do what they want him to do. If the Legislature
should end up determining whom the next governor or lieutenant
governor should be, a representative is obligated to vote the way
the people in his district want him to vote."
"Unless my
district voted overwhelmingly for another candidate, I would vote
for the candidate who received the most votes statewide," Darrow
said.
"As a
representative of the voters in Windham-6, I would cast my vote
according to how the voters in the towns that I represent would vote
for the offices of governor and lieutenant governor," Allbee said.
"This is the purpose, I believe, of a representative democracy -- to
represent your constituents."
Half of the House
candidates who responded said that if no candidate achieves a
majority, they will vote for the candidate with the largest number
of statewide votes. Those candidates are Windham-4 Democrat Michael
Obuchowski, Windham-5 independent candidate Margaret O'Toole,
Democratic Windham-5 incumbent David Deen, Windham-6 independent
Larry Kraft, Windham-2 independent Donald Webster, Windham-3
Progressive/Democrat Sarah Edwards, Windham-6 Democratic candidate
Elizabeth Bolognani, Windham-2 independent Daryl Pillsbury, and
Windham-5 write-in candidate Democrat Paul Kane.
Obuchowski summed
up the comments of many candidates by stating that a vote for the
candidate with the largest statewide plurality is the best way to
honor "the will of the people."
"Anything else
would make voters feel like their vote didn't matter," Obuchowski
said. "People have problems with voting; whether their concerns are
real or unsubstantiated is a matter of debate because they often
feel their choice doesn't matter or their vote doesn't count. Not
voting the way the state voted would be thwarting democracy."
Webster agreed,
adding that the duty to elect the governor or lieutenant governor is
an obligation that legislators owe to the state, and not an
individual district or political party.
"I will vote for
the candidate with the most votes statewide, however small the
margin might be," Webster said. "The constitutional basis for a
legislative decision when there is no majority is a vestige of the
past, and I would support an amendment to replace it by any sensible
option, such as instant runoff voting or a run-off election between
the top two vote-getters."
Pillsbury said he
would vote for the candidate that receives a statewide plurality to
avoid the problems that resulted in Florida during the last
presidential election.
And many
candidates also echoed to the comments of Bolognani, who said a
legislative vote is a scenario that very few look forward to.
"I hope that a
candidate will get a clear majority," Bolognani said. "Let's hope we
don't have to (have a legislative vote)."
Several candidates
said they don't yet know how they will vote. Incumbent Democrat
Carolyn Partridge of Windham-4, Windham-1 Democratic challenger
Robert Stack, Republican Windham-4 candidate George Kuusela,
Windham-2 incumbent Democrat Gini Milkey, and
Windham-Bennington-Windsor Republican incumbent Richard Hube said
they will need some time to consider their decision if the need for
a legislative vote arises.
Partridge said her
initial inclination is to vote for the candidate with the largest
statewide vote, but she pointed out that lieutenant governor
candidates Pollina and Shumlin have somewhat similar platforms. Her
dilemma arises, she said, if Pollina and Shumlin were to each
receive 30 percent of the vote and Republican candidate Brian Dubie
received 35 percent. While Dubie would have a plurality, 60 percent
of the state's voters would have favored the Pollina-Shumlin stance
over the more conservative Dubie.
"We could be
looking at a situation where, if either Pollina or Shumlin wasn't in
the race, then voters would have selected the other candidate," she
said. "Does that really mean we should vote for Brian Dubie because
he got five more percentage points? I'm hoping we won't have to
(cast ballots), because this is really a tough one," Partridge said.
Another Democrat,
Stack, said that he would vote for the candidate whom he felt was
best for the state, adding that he wouldn't vote for a candidates
whose ideas and platforms he didn't support.
Milkey noted that
the decision will be difficult because it requires a representative
to balance the will of their constituency and the good of the state.
She said her decision would follow the will of either the district
or the state, not party lines or personal preference.
Among Republicans,
Hube said he would consider statewide results in the context of his
district's voting result and what he hears from his constituents.
Kuusela said his
vote would depend heavily on the spread of votes between candidates.
"It would make a difference what the spread was -- if it was only
100 votes or so, if there wasn't a clear mandate from the voters,"
he said. "There's no hanging chads here in Vermont, and I'm not
saying I would vote for (the candidate with the largest number of
votes statewide). I'm just saying I'd have to see what the spread
was first."
When asked if they
would make the content of their secret ballot public, the
overwhelming majority of House candidates said they would divulge
the name of the candidate they voted for. Only Kuusela, Deen and
Hube said they would not reveal their decision.
"The Vermont
constitution says it will be a secret ballot," Deen said. "The
Legislature does not have the authority to up and decide that they
are not going to follow the Vermont constitution. Without stating
definitively how I would vote, it is my inclination to vote for the
person who receives the largest number of votes statewide."
Hube and Kuusela
concurred, with Hube noting that the state constitution is clear on
the secret ballot process. "If we don't have faith in our officials
to make the right decision, we need to change officials," he said.
