The Potential for Minority Rule in U.S.
Congressional Elections
February 2005
More than a century ago, John Stuart Mill explained how it was misleading to
describe a winner-take-all election system as "majoritarian" because
"a majority of a majority is not the same as a majority of the whole."
Here's what he meant. Suppose each representative has been elected by a
majority in a single-member district. Suppose a very controversial bill passes
by a margin of just one vote in the legislature (for example, 218-217 in the
U.S. House). This legislation theoretically could have the support only of those
voters who had elected the representatives supporting the legislation. If that
were true, all the voters who did not help elect one of these representatives -
perhaps 75% or more - would be denied their policy preference. That does not
even reflect the fact of non-voters who did not participate at all.
Such a polarized breakdown of voters is unlikely, but the broader point is a
powerful one: that winner-take-all elections in no way ensure passage of
policy supported by the majority. This potential is exacerbated in the United
States by three particular trends: 1) voter turnout is extremely low, with far
less than half of American adults voting in congressional races in
off-presidential years; 2) most general elections are not competitive due to
partisan imbalance and to how single-member districts are shaped in
redistricting, which in turn makes the even-lower-turnout party primary the most
important election in most districts; 3) more races are being won without a
majority of the vote, particularly in primaries. Minority rule is even more likely
to occur in the U.S. Senate, given its great divergence from the
principle of one person, one vote because each state has two Senators,
regardless of population.
We received the analysis below from a long-time Internet democracy
activist who has compiled statistics on potential minority rule in the U.S.
House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate based on the November 2004
elections and, in the case of the U.S. Senate, elections in 2000 and 2002 as
well (one-third of the Senate and all House Members are elected every two
years). Note that even though his analysis does not factor in the problems
of our low turnout and non-competitive general elections, but it shows that
even with all Members voting, a particular bill could pass the U.S. House with
the support of only 26% of voters in 2004 and the U.S. Senate with the support
of only 10% of voters in 2000-2004.
His charts also have interesting information about popular vote totals. For
example, the total votes cast for the 96 Democratic candidates for the U.S.
Senate in 2000-2004 in fact is greater than the total votes cast for the 97
Republican candidates for Senate in that period ��� yet Republicans hold 55 of
100 Senate seats.
Related links:
��
Minority rule potential, November 2000 Elections
o
http://fairvote.org/library/geog/congress/minorityrules.htm
��
Dubious Democracy 2003
o
http://www.fairvote.org/dubdem/index.html
U.S. House Elections, November 2004:
Minority Rule Percentage (MRP)
The U.S. House of Representatives has 435 House Members, each elected
from a one-seat district for a two-year term. The chart below indicates that a
bill could receive a majority of 218 votes in the House from legislators who received
less than 27% of the votes from those at the polls in November 2004. A
bill could pass with the votes of 218 Republicans whose share of the vote
was barely 32%.
|
Votes
Received
|
% of Total
Votes Cast (122,848,090) *
|
428 Winners (199
D, 228 R, 1 I)
|
75,898,072
|
61.8%
|
218 Low-Vote
Winners (120 D, 98 R)
|
32,385,270
|
26.4% (MRP)
|
218 Low-Vote
Majority Party (Republican)
|
34,180,388
|
32.3% (MRP)
|
* Total votes is based on the total valid votes
cast in the presidential race in November 2004 (see chart below).
Chart on Votes Cast
in November 2004 House Races
|
Voters (2004)
|
Percent
|
396 Democratic House Candidates
|
52,972,714
|
43.1%
|
402 Republican House Candidates
|
55,955,575
|
45.5%
|
All Other House Candidates
|
2,694,454
|
2.2%
|
Non-Votes in House Races*
|
11,225,347
|
9.1%
|
Total Voters in Election 2004
|
122,848,090
|
100.0%
|
* "Non-votes" in U.S. House
races is determined by subtracting the number of votes cast in House races from
the number of votes cast in the Presidential race. It does not include the
people at the polls who did not cast a valid vote in the presidential
race (which was more than 1% of all votes).
U. S. Senate Elections,
2000-2004:
Minority Rule Percentage (MRP)
The U.S. Senate has
100 Members. Senators serve six-year terms, with one-third of the Senate elected
every two years. Two Senators are elected from each state, regardless
of that state's population. The chart below indicates that a bill
could receive a majority of 51 votes in the Senate from legislators
who received only 10% of all votes cast in U.S. Senate races in
2000, 2002 and 2004. A bill could pass with the votes of 51 Republicans
whose share of that total vote was less than 20%.
|
Votes Received
|
Percent of
Total
Senate Votes*
|
|
100 Winners (44 D, 56 R)
|
120,265,243
|
56.8%
|
|
51 Low-Vote Winners (20 D, 31 R)
|
21,246,326
|
10.0% (MRP)
|
|
51 Low-Vote Republicans
|
41,601,627
|
19.7% (MRP)
|
|
* Total U.S. Senate votes is based on adding all votes cast in the 100
U.S. Senate races from 2000 to 2004. It does not include the votes of anyone at
the polls who did not cast a valid vote in the U.S. Senate race. See chart
below.
**
Vermont Senator Jim Jeffords was elected as a Republican in November 2000 and is
counted as one in this chart. He has since become an independent.
Chart on Votes Cast
in U.S. Senate Races, 2000-2004
|
Votes Received
|
Percent
|
96 Democratic Candidates, 2000-2004
|
99,670,071
|
47.1%
|
99 Republican Candidates, 2000-2004
|
97,300,545
|
46%
|
Other Candidates, 2000-2004
|
6,843,494
|
3.2%
|
Non-votes in Senate races*
|
7,795,614
|
3.7%
|
Total Senate Votes, 1996-2004
|
211,609,724
|
100.0
|
* "Non-votes" in
U.S. Senate races is determined by subtracting the number of votes cast in
Senate races from the sum of all votes cast in the presidential races in 2000
and 2004 and all votes cast in Senates races in 2002. It does not include
the people at the polls who did not cast a valid vote in the
presidential race (which was more than 2% of all votes in 2000 and
more than 1% of all votes in 2004).
|