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The Western Mail
February 10,
2003
Summary:
Former Welsh Secretary states
that the Labour party needs to present an inspiring platform in
order to retain control of the Welsh Assembly.
The Western Mail
Ron Davies
warns Labour of Plaid victory
By Martin Shipton
February 10, 2003 FORMER Welsh Secretary Ron Davies has
dropped a bombshell by warning that unless Labour offers the people
of Wales a radical manifesto for change, the party could lose May's
Assembly election to Plaid Cymru. In an article for the
parliamentary House magazine, Mr Davies argues that Labour needs to
remotivate its core vote with "greater clarity about our economic
and social objectives", and he warns, "If we fail to inspire that
natural constituency of Labour support it will not only be a moral
defeat." Last night, Welsh Labour's policy co-ordinator, Carwyn
Jones, the Assembly's business manager, said, "We are very aware
that we need to promote a manifesto that will inspire people to vote
Labour. "I think we have a solid record of achievement over the
past four years that will convince people to support us and we are
confident of securing an overall majority." But Plaid Cymru
president Ieuan Wyn Jones said, "Ron Davies's analysis is spot on in
many areas - the lack of any real substantial achievements by the
Labour-led government in the Assembly, their poor performance in the
economic sphere and the downright scandalous waiting lists have
turned the voters away from them in droves." A senior Labour source
said, "If we fail to win an overall majority, Ron would envisage a
scenario where Rhodri resigns and he steps in to fill the breach."
Mr Davies is certainly increasing his profile in the run-up to the
Assembly elections. In December he called for the replacement of the
Barnett Formula that governs how much money the Assembly receives
and next Thursday he appears on BBC1's networked Question Time. His
article in the House magazine states, "Given Labour's historic
voting strength in Wales and our current hold on 34 of 40 of the
Westminster seats, this May's Assembly election should be something
of a formality. The Assembly's proportional representation system
and the dynamic introduced into voting patterns by a new, devolved
tier of government for the Welsh nation, ensure an outcome, however,
which is far from foregone. "The main challenge to Labour comes not
from the other political parties but from apathy. The 50% turnout
for the 1997 referendum and 46% turnout for the historic first
Assembly elections in 1999 could be seen as very authoritative
against what some commentators forecast may be a turnout of 35% this
year. "If we fail to better that, we will have lost. A turnout of
that order would mean a vote for Labour by something like one in
five or one in six Welsh electors. After four years running the
Assembly, we should have a solid record of achievement and a clear
and dynamic vision of the future to be sufficient to mobilise our
natural and strong base of support to give us a comfortable victory.
"But the vagaries of differential turnout could mean hitherto safe
Labour seats falling to the opposition, whose natural core of
supporters, either because of innate enthusiasm for their cause or
because of the driving force of political opportunism, have a
greater propensity to turn out and vote. "The IDS factor will be
sufficient to ensure not more than two, perhaps three seats will be
vulnerable to the Tories this time around, but our vulnerable flank
is against Plaid." "Of course issues of administrative competence
and public service delivery are important, but there are other
influences to come into play - a protest vote against the state
government perhaps, more likely the expression of local interests or
an assertion of regional or national identity where language, a
sense of history or a desire for greater self-determination can be a
dominant consideration." He added, "We have to defend against a
potential `double whammy'. On the one hand our natural traditional
supporters may consider the Assembly government's performance on
health and the economy provide less than compelling reasons to turn
out and vote. On health, for example, even though a record amount of
money has gone into the NHS, waiting lists have stubbornly refused
to respond and an overdue concentration on bureaucratic reform isn't
guaranteed to impress the electorate. "Similarly on the economy,
while employment has continued to rise in line with UK trends, the
handling of the Objective One programme has been less than
impressive and unrealistic targets for closing the GDP gap with the
rest of the UK have all the potential for a painful own goal. "On
the other hand, are we saying enough to motivate and inspire the
radical, politically aware of the electorate who, being more
conscious of national identity and anxious for the Assembly to
develop and succeed, are much more likely to vote? We shall have to
await the verdict, but a radical manifesto and clear election
strategy can do much to sway the jury our way." |
