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Eurasianet.org
May 22,
2003
Summary: Article written a
few days before the 2003 elections for parliament and for a
referendum on adopting a new constitution, discussing the parties
and the issues at stake. In 2002, Austria adopted a parallel system
for its legislature, which is a combination of full representation
and winner-take-all.
Coalition Government
Likely Outcome of May 25 Parliament Elections in
Armenia
By Haroutiun Khachatrian
May 22, 2003 Armenia’Äôs
parliamentary vote May 25 will likely reflect the divisions in
society that have opened since President Robert Kocharian’Äôs
controversial re-election just over two months ago. Opinion polls
show that no party will be able to win a parliamentary majority,
signaling the likelihood of a coalition government. Under changes
to the electoral code adopted in 2002, 75 of the 131 parliament
seats at stake in the election will be allotted according to a
proportional voting system. To qualify for proportional
representation political parties must receive at least 5 percent of
the vote. The remaining 56 deputies will be elected in local
districts on a first-past-the-post basis. Heading into the
campaign’Äôs final days, polls show pro-presidential and opposition
support to be roughly equal. According to the Armenian Sociological
Association (ASA), the Ardarutiun (Justice) opposition bloc stands
to receive upwards of 12 percent of the vote. Ardarutiun is led by
Stepan Demirchian, who was defeated by Kocharian in the
controversial March 5 presidential run-off. [For background see the
Eurasia Insight archive.] The populist, pro-presidential party,
Orinats Yerkir (Land of Law) also will receive roughly 12 percent of
the vote, the ASA predicts. Behind the two front-runners, the
pro-presidential Republican Party, led by Prime Minister Andranik
Margarian, shares third place with National Unity, led by opposition
presidential candidate, Artashes Geghamian. Both parties are
expected to garner up to 9 percent of the vote. Gevorg Poghosian,
head of the Armenian Sociological Association, said Dashnaktsutiun
(the Armenian Revolutionary Federation), a nationalist party that
has supported Kocharian in the past, also appeared likely to clear
the 5 percent hurdle to obtain parliament seats under the
proportional system. Among the 272 candidates in
first-past-the-post contests, observers expect prominent businessmen
with unclear party loyalties to carry most seats. Polls show that 35
percent of voters, and 13 percent of voters in Yerevan, were
undecided as of May 15. In admitting the likelihood that the
elections would produce a coalition, Kocharian expressed confidence
that he will be able to work with the next government. ’ÄúI think that
we can find points of contact with the political parties that
support me,’Äù the Mediamax news agency quoted the president as saying
May 21. In the event that an opposition-dominated coalition arises
from the parliament vote, Defense Minister Serge Sargisian, who
served as Kocharian’Äôs campaign manager in the presidential election,
has indicated he will resign. A key question looming in the
parliament vote concerns possible electoral fraud. Allegations of
voting irregularities marred the presidential campaign and election
process. [For background, see the Eurasia Insight archive.]
Political experts suggest the chances of ballot stuffing are reduced
in the parliament vote by the fact that pro-presidential parties are
now vying against each other. Moreover, a ’Äúclean’Äù election seems
likely to produce a legislature that, in its fragmentation, will
enhance presidential influence. A fractious legislature would serve
pro-presidential parties more effectively than tampering with the
polls would, some observers say. In an interview published May 21
by the Ayots Ashkar daily, the chief of the OSCE Monitoring Mission,
Robert Barry, said the parliament election campaign ’Äúwas mainly
proceeding in a calm atmosphere’Äù adding that ’Äúthere was less tension
compared to the presidential election.’Äù A separate constitutional
referendum will take place on the same day as the parliament vote.
In mid April, when he announced the referendum, Kocharian said a
reworked constitution was needed to provide a better balance of
power between Armenia’Äôs executive and legislative branches of
government. Opposition leaders said that the constitutional changes
would enhance presidential authority. [For additional information
see the Eurasia Insight archive.] Most voters only received the
opportunity May 16 to review the constitutional changes, which were
presented as an entirely ’Äúnew edition of the constitution.’Äù Little
effort has been made to highlight the proposed changes to
constitution. The referendum will ask voters to either approve or
reject the entire ’ÄúNew Edition.’Äù Political observers in Yerevan
note that Kocharian ’Äì who initiated the process to amend the
constitution -- has in recent weeks adopted a ’Äúlukewarm’Äù stance on
the referendum. Armen Haroutiunian, a law professor who helped
prepare the ’ÄúNew Edition,’Äù likewise expressed ambivalence about the
referendum, saying: ’ÄúArmenia will win irrespective of the outcome.’Äù
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