|
Plurality Rules Transform
the 2000 Presidential Race:
Al Gore and Ralph Nader
The drama in Florida
in 2000 focused national attention on
electoral rules and practices -- primarily on outdated voting equipment, but also on the
Electoral College, plurality voting and winner-take-all elections
themselves. After 35 days and one of the most controversial Supreme Court decisions
in history, Republican George W. Bush gained Florida�s 25 disputed
electoral votes.
He thus won the presidency with 271
votes in the Electoral College, only four ahead of Democrat Al Gore.
After two terms as vice president, Gore was the first
presidential contender since 1888 to win the national popular
vote (by slightly more than 540,000 votes), but fail to win the
Electoral College. Bush won 47.9% of the popular vote and Gore
48.4%. The popular vote in the House and Senate over the past
three elections also has been nearly deade even, with the Senate
ending 50-50 after the November electins and the Republicans holding
a narrow edge in the House.
This remarkable numerical closeness lent �spoiler� power to
any third party with the numbers to tip the balance � in which the
two party, winner-take-all electoral system currently causes votes
to contribute to the major party less aligned with the
voter�s preferences.
For example,
progressive Green Party candidate Ralph Nader attracted media attention in the final weeks of
the campaign as he refused to encourage his supporters to vote
for Gore and instead campaigned in several of the most hotly contested
states.
.
In the last month of the campaign, �Nader Trader� websites sprang up to arrange
vote trades - a Nader supporters would pledge to cast their votes
for Democrat Gore in states where the presidential race was expected
to be close, and in exchange, a Democrat would agree to vote for Nader
in states where Bush was expected to win. Not sanctioned by the campaigns,
the exchanges were designed to help Gore in swing states and give the
Green Party the 5 percent of the national vote it needed to win
federal campaign money.
In the end, however, neither side
got its way. Nader polled less than 3% of the popular vote and
did win enough votes in Florida and New Hampshire to tip them toward
George Bush. The Florida 547-vote margin was so close that
Nader's 97,488 votes obviously would have tipped the
difference, while Nader's 22,188 votes in New Hampshire far
outstripped the 7,211 votes separating state
winner Bush from Gore.
Of course George Bush supporters could point to Reform Party
candidate Pat Buchanan and Libertarian Party candidate Harry
Browne as at least potential spoilers. While Gore
likely would have won the presidency if only Gore and Bush had run,
Bush would have won comfortably if Buchanan and Browne
had not been running The Browne-Buchanan vote - which,
while not uniformly conservative, likely heavily leaned toward
Bush over Gore - was more than Gore's margin of victory in
Iowa, New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin and also would have put
Florida clearly beyond Gore's reach no matter how the recount had
been conducted.
National Vote Totals
|
Candidate and Party |
Popular Vote |
Percentage |
Electoral College Vote |
|
Al
Gore:
Democrat |
50,128,338 |
48% |
266* |
|
George Bush:
Republican
|
49,800,372 |
48% |
271 |
|
Ralph
Nader:
Green |
2,781,109 |
3% |
0 |
|
Pat
Buchanan:
Reform
|
445,124 |
0% |
0 |
|
Harry
Browne:
Libertarian
|
382,869 |
0% |
0 |
Plurality Victories in
2000
10 plurality
victories total:
�
4 won by Bush (54 Electoral College Votes)
�
6 won by Gore (44 Electoral College Votes)
Of 10 states
won by a plurality: None were won with less than 45%; the
lowest winning percentage was in Oregon, where Gore won with 46.96%,
Bush took 46.52%, and Nader won 5.04% of the vote.
Indicative of the closeness of the race, the average
difference between the vote for the major parties in these 10
states was 1.69%.
GOP - Republican candidate George Bush
DEM - Democratic candidate Al Gore
GRN - Green candidate Ralph Nader
REF - Reform candidate Pat Buchanan
LBT - Libertarian candidate Howard Phillips
.
|
State |
% of Popular Vote
|
Party |
Difference Between Major Parties
(%) |
Electoral College Votes
|
|
|
FL |
48.85 |
GOP |
|
25 |
|
|
|
48.84 |
DEM |
0.01 |
|
|
|
|
1.63 |
GRN
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.29 |
REF
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.28 |
LBT
|
|
|
|
|
IA |
48.54 |
DEM |
|
7 |
|
|
|
48.22 |
GOP |
0.32 |
|
|
|
|
2.23 |
GRN
|
REF/LBT total |
|
|
|
|
0.44 |
REF
|
|
|
|
|
0.24 |
LBT
|
0.68 |
|
|
|
ME |
49.09 |
DEM |
|
4 |
|
|
|
43.97 |
GOP |
5.12 |
|
|
|
|
5.70 |
GRN
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.68 |
REF
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.47 |
LBT
|
|
|
|
|
MN |
47.90 |
DEM |
|
10 |
|
|
|
45.50 |
GOP |
2.40 |
|
|
|
|
5.20 |
GRN
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.91 |
REF
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.22 |
LBT
|
|
|
|
|
NV |
49.52 |
GOP |
|
4 |
|
|
|
45.98 |
DEM |
3.54 |
|
|
|
|
2.46 |
GRN
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.78 |
REF
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.54 |
LBT
|
|
|
|
|
NH |
48.07 |
GOP |
|
4 |
|
|
|
46.80 |
DEM |
1.27 |
|
|
|
|
3.90 |
GRN
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.48 |
LBT
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.46 |
REF
|
|
|
|
|
NM |
47.91 |
DEM |
|
5 |
|
|
|
47.85 |
GOP |
0.06 |
|
|
|
|
3.55 |
GRN
|
REF/LBT total |
|
|
|
|
0.34 |
LBT
|
|
|
|
|
0.23 |
REF
|
0.57 |
|
|
|
OH |
49.99 |
GOP |
|
21 |
|
|
|
46.44 |
DEM |
3.55 |
|
|
|
|
2.50 |
GRN
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.57 |
REF
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.29 |
LBT
|
|
|
|
|
OR |
46.96 |
DEM |
|
7 |
|
|
|
46.52 |
GOP |
0.44 |
|
|
|
|
5.04 |
GRN
|
REF/LBT total |
|
|
|
|
0.48 |
LBT
|
|
|
|
|
0.46 |
REF
|
0.94 |
|
|
|
WI |
47.83 |
DEM |
|
11 |
|
|
|
47.61 |
GOP |
0.22 |
|
|
|
|
3.62 |
GRN
|
REF/LBT total |
|
|
|
|
0.44 |
REF
|
> |
|
|
|
0.26 |
LBT
|
0.70 |
|
|
|
Average difference
between GOP/DEM |
1.69% |
|
|
Average GRN
vote |
3.58% |
|
|
Average sum of all
third party votes |
4.47% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
States Won with less than
51% |
|
|
CO |
50.75 |
R
|
|
8 |
|
|
|
42.39 |
D
|
8.36 |
|
|
|
|
5.25 |
GRN
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.73 |
LBT
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.60 |
REF
|
|
|
|
|
VT |
50.63 |
D
|
|
3 |
|
|
|
40.70 |
R
|
9.93 |
|
|
|
|
6.92 |
GRN
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.74 |
REF
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.35 |
GRN-VT
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.27 |
LBT
|
|
|
|
|
WA |
50.16 |
D
|
|
11 |
|
|
|
44.58 |
R
|
5.58 |
|
|
|
|
4.14 |
GRN
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.53 |
LBT
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.29 |
REF
|
|
|
|
|
Source: Federal Elections 2000, FEC June
2001 |
|
|
|
|
**Analysis: If no
third party existed and one makes assumption ALL GRN
vote D, ALL REF/LBT vote R (a convenient, not a valid,
assumption) then Gore wins FL and NH, bringing
his electoral vote total to a winning of 295. GRN is
thus the primary spoiler affecting outcome.
However, IF GRN exists, but REF/LBT do not and ALL REF/LBT
vote R, Bush picks up IA, NM, OR, and WI for a total of 301
electoral votes. REF and LBT did not change the outcome
of the election, but did influence the electoral
vote.
*All gray shaded areas indicate a party
statistically capable of acting as an electoral college
spoiler. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Return to
Plurality Index.
|
