Democracy Rising conference
Johns Hopkins University June 26, 2003
Three representatives of the Center traveled to the Johns
Hopkins University campus, in Baltimore, to staff an education table
at the evening conference. During a relatively short period
(5:30pm-7:30pm) the staff conducted a presidential straw poll, using
a ranked-choice method that allowed us to count the ballots using an
instant runoff voting system. The primary goal of this activity was
to educate conference goers on how vote using an instant runoff
ballot, the general pros and cons of the system, and how votes will
be eventually counted. 84 ballots were cast in the two-hour period.
None of the seven candidates (four candidates seeking the Democratic
nomination, two being considered for the Green party nomination and
incumbent president George Bush) had a majority of voters after the
first round, but after the instant runoff process, Ralph Nader was
the winner. A closer scrutiny of the rounds of counting,
particularly the second round, illustrates some trends in the voting
preferences. View the
results (Excel spreadsheet
[3pages]) As noted on the
spreadsheet at the above link, Nader was able to pull out the win by
the fifth round of counting. Though this was a fairly diverse field,
the electorate (a Ralph Nader, liberal convention) was certainly not
an accurate representation of the entire American electorate. With
that said, this rather unscientific poll identifies a few
preliminary trends in voters. Probably the starkest inclination was
for Nader voters to put Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich as their
number two candidate, and visa versa to a lesser degree; 63% of
voters ranked Ralph Nader either first or second, while 56% of
voters ranked Kucinich first or second. Former Vermont governor
Howard Dean was ranked first or second by 31% of voters, while the
remaining candidates were ranked first or second by fewer than 17%
of voters. Tying this into a recent straw poll at the Take Back
America conference, Kucinich was voted a strong second-place
finisher at both a pro-progressive Democrat and a pro-Green
convention, illustrating that he may be more appealing to
Green-leaning voters than Dean. Dean won the straw poll at the Take
Back America conference and the recent Move-On poll of members, but
had relatively low first round appeal at this polling. Please
remember that we have not yet done a polling which includes the
entire democratic spectrum (centrists have not been included thus
far in the polling population). Note that one advantage of using
ranked ballots in such straw polls is seeing surprising
relationships among voters – or lack of relationship, as the case
may be. For example, of the six people who ranked Hillary Clinton as
their first choice, only one ranked Nader or Kucinich as a second
choice. Despite Nader and Kucinich outpacing the field, neither was
the majority second choice of any other candidate. Many voters
professed to be still in process of learning about candidates.
Tracking such straw polls in the future will indicate where
coalitions among voters are forming. |