February 2001
More than a century ago, John Stuart Mill explained how it was misleading to
describe a winner-take-all election system as "majoritarian" because
"a majority of a majority is not the same as a majority of the
whole."
Here's what he meant. Suppose each representative has been elected by a
majority in a single-member district. Suppose a very controversial item of
legislation is voted on and that it passes by one vote in the legislature. This
legislation theoretically could have the support only of those voters who had
elected the representatives supporting the legislation. If that were true, all
the voters who did not help elect one of these representatives - perhaps 75% or
more - would be denied their policy preference.
Such a polarized breakdown of voters is unlikely, but the broader point is a
powerful one: that winner-take-all elections in no way ensure passage of
policy supported by the majority. This potential is exacerbated in the United
States by three particular trends: 1) voter turnout is extremely low, with
barely a third of American adults voting in congressional races in
off-presidential years; 2) most general elections are not competitive due to
partisan imbalance and to how single-member districts are shaped in
redistricting, which in turn makes the even-lower-turnout party primary the
most important election in most districts; 3) more races are being won without
a majority of the vote, particularly in primaries. Minority rule is even more
likely to occur in the U.S. Senate, given its great divergence from the
principle of one person, one vote because each state has two Senators,
regardless of population.
We received the analysis below from a long-time Internet democracy activist
([email protected]) who has compiled statistics on potential minority rule
in the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate based on the November
2000 elections and, in the case of the Senate, elections in 1996 and 1998 as
well. Note that his analysis does not factor in the problems of our low turnout
and non-competitive general elections, but still indicates that a particular
bill could pass the U.S. House with the support of only 26% of voters and the
the U.S. Senate with the support of only 11% of voters. We plan to post similar
analyses about state legislatures this fall.
Refer to Terms and Sources for more information
U.S. House Elections, November 2000:
Minority Rule Percentage (MRP)
The U.S. House of Representatives has 435 House Members, each elected from a
one-seat district for a two-year term. The chart below indicates that a bill
could receive a majority of 218 votes in the House from legislators who
received less than 26% of the votes from those at the polls in November 2000. A
bill could pass with the votes of 218 Republicans whose share of the vote was
barely 32%.
| Votes Received | % of Total Votes Cast (105,392,130) |
435 Winners (214 D, 221 R) | 65,503,878 | 62.2% |
218 Low-Vote Winners (120 D, 98 R) | 27,303,266 | 25.9% (MRP) |
218 Low-Vote Majority Party (Republican) | 34,180,388 | 32.4% |
* Total votes in November 2000 is based on the total votes cast in the
presidential race in November (see chart below).
** Two independent House candidates won, but one (Bernard Sanders, Vermont) is
closely aligned with the Democrats and the other (Virgil Goode, Virginia) with
the Republicans. In addition, note that one Democrat and one Republican each
were elected without any general election votes.
Chart on Votes Cast in November 2000 House Races
| Voters (2000) | Percent |
403 Democratic House Candidates | 46,747,873 | 44.4% |
401 Republican House Candidates | 47,127,816 | 44.7% |
All Other House Candidates | 3,401,429 | 3.2% |
Non-Votes in House Races* | 8,115,012 | 7.7% |
Total Voters in Election 2000 | 105,392,130 | 100.0% |
* "Non-votes" in House races is determined by subtracting the number
of votes cast in House races from the number of votes cast in the Presidential
race. It does not include the voters who did not cast a valid vote in the
presidential race (which was more than 2% of all votes).
U. S. Senate Elections, 1996-2000:
Minority Rule Percentage (MRP)
The U.S. Senate has 100 Members. Senators serve six-year terms, with one-third
of the Senate elected every two years. Two Senators are elected from each
state, regardless of that state's population. The chart below indicates that a
bill could receive a majority of 51 votes in the Senate from legislators who
received less than 11% of all votes cast in U.S. Senate races in 1996, 1998 and
2000. A bill could pass with the votes of 51 Republicans whose share of that
total vote was barely 24% and the votes of 51 Democrats whose share of that
vote was less than 33%.
| Votes Received | Percent of Total |
100 Winners (50 D, 50 R) | 102,547,895 | 56.9% |
51 Low-Vote Winners (22 D, 29 R) | 18,988,443 | 10.5% (MRP) |
50 Low-Vote Democrats | 59,055,827 | 32.7% |
50 Low-Vote Republicans | 43,492,068 | 24.1% |
* Total Senate votes is based on adding all votes cast in U.S. Senate races
from 1996 to 2000. It does not include the votes of anyone at the polls who did
not cast a valid vote in the U.S. Senate race. See chart below.
** Vermont Senator Jim Jeffords is counted as a Republican, based on his party
affiliation when elected in November 2000
Chart on Votes Cast in U.S. Senate Races, 1996-2000
| Votes Received | Percent |
99 Democratic Candidates, 1996-2000 | 87,826,296 | 48.7% |
100 Republican Candidates, 1996-2000 | 86,664,162 | 48.1% |
Other Candidates, 1996-2000 | 5,846,013 | 3.2% |
Total Senate Votes, 1996-2000 | 180,336,471 | 100.0 |
Terms:
D - Democrat
R - Republican
Ind - Independent
MRP - Minority Rule Percentage
Democrat and Republican votes include third party votes for Democrat and
Republican candidates in fusion states like New York
Sources:
1996 Data - Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of
November 5, 1996, Clerk, United States House of Representatives
1998 Data - Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 3, 1998,
Clerk, United States House of Representatives
2000 Data - Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of
November 7, 2000, Clerk, United States House of Representatives