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Governor
Davis's Claim to Run as His Own Successor Is Meritless, But the Fear
of a "Fringe" Winner Is Serious: How the Risk Can Be Eliminated in
the Future
By Vikram David Amar
August 8,
2003 This column is part of a
series on the California recall process. Part One
appeared on July 25. - Ed
. On August 4, Governor
Gray Davis filed a lawsuit involving the California recall. In this
lawsuit he argues, among other things, that should a majority of
voters opt to recall him, the federal Constitution still entitles
him to be a candidate on the second part of the ballot - the part
that asks voters to fill the recall-created opening. The Governor's
reasoning is simple: Suppose that, say, on the first part of the
ballot 51% vote for his recall, and 49% oppose it. And suppose also
that no candidate to be Davis' successor on the second part of the
ballot gets 49% support. Davis contends that democracy requires that
he should still remain Governor. After all, more voters prefer his
remaining in office than any other choice. As I will explain, this
simple reasoning is also deeply flawed, and unlikely to prevail in
court (for a number of reasons, including perhaps a lack of standing
by the plaintiffs). But Davis, at least, has hit a nerve. It is
reasonable to worry that a winner could get much less than 49%
support - and not only for the obvious reason that the field is
large, and wide open. Is there any way to combat this worry and
still have a one-day recall vote? I will show that indeed, there is
- though unfortunately, it could be implemented only in the future,
not in time for the Davis recall/successor election. The Problem with Governor
Davis' Argument
Davis's legal argument on the merits,
while intuitively attractive, has some huge flaws. To begin with,
although Davis may be right that he alone has to get 50% of the vote
to be Governor whereas other aspirants (like Arnold) could win with,
say, 30%, on the second part of the ballot, it is also true that
Davis could win the recall with 51% of the vote on the first part
even if 80% of the electorate would prefer Arnold in a head-to-head
competition between the two. That is, just as Davis is excluded from
the second part of the ballot, all others (including Arnold) are
excluded from the first part. The two parts of the ballot
effectively involve two distinct questions, so they are governed by
different rules. More generally, and more importantly, the Davis
position disregards the fact that states exclude people who might be
the most popular candidate from running, and winning, all the time.
Term limits, for instance, can have the effect of preventing
someone (a popular incumbent) who might garner more votes than
anyone else from running. So too do age and residency requirements.
So long as the candidate qualification criteria a state chooses are
non-partisan and reasonable, they should be - and are - upheld in
court. Here, California's interest in excluding Davis from the
second part of the ballot is simple: It's telling someone who was so
contentious that he just got recalled from the State's highest and
most visible office that he now has to sit temporarily on the
sideline, presumably to promote harmony and stability for the State,
and to ensure the State survives whatever crisis brought on the
recall intact. It may be true that should Davis lose on the first
part of the ballot, he is being treated differently than are other
candidates for the governorship, but that is because he is different
- he is the only person who just got recalled. In my view, the
interest in keeping a recalled person on the sideline for a moment
is actually a stronger interest than the interests in new blood that
justifies absolute term limits (which have been upheld as
constitutional by the state and federal courts in California). For
this reason, Davis' suit should not succeed. The Fear that the Recall
Winner Won't Be a Popular Choice
But even if Davis will lose
in court, his suit touches on a real fear: The fear that the recall
election will yield a winner with the support of only a minority -
perhaps a small minority - of California voters. As of now
(subject, of course, to yet another pending legal challenge), all
one needs to do to have his/her name on the recall ballot as a
possible successor is to come up with 65 signatures and $3,500. So
far, over 300 persons have taken out the paperwork to try to do so.
Tomorrow, August 9, is the final day for successor candidates to
qualify. In the next 24 hours, scores of people may do so. That has
generated a number of dilemmas. For instance, over the last month,
Democrats have faced a quandary. They say their preferred outcome is
that Davis himself remain in office. But that puts them in a hard
spot: Should they put a competing Democrat on the successor ballot,
or not? Doing so might increase the chances of Davis' recall. (As of
this posting, a few Democrats have indicated they will break ranks
and offer themselves as successor candidates.) Of course, this
dilemma for the Democrats is in part a consequence of the fact that
the recall/succession voting occurs on a single ballot on a single
day. If there were separate elections, the problem would be
obviated: voters (and Democratic party leaders) could make recall,
and successor, decisions separately. But somewhat mystifyingly, the
California Constitution does not allow that option: It prescribes a
single-day recall-and-possible-replacement process. That's
mystifying mostly because this isn't a primary - it's the general
election. Primaries are often won by a plurality winner, and
sometimes even a low-percentage plurality winner. But in the general
election that follows, the winner, in our basically two-party
system, generally receives a majority, or at least something close
to it. That's not likely to be the case in this recall. As a
result, a nagging fear plagues not just Democrats, but many
Californians of every political stripe: What if the winning
successor candidate receives only a small percentage of the vote?
This is very possible, for not only is this a general election, but
there is no runoff. The California Constitution clearly says that
"the candidate who receives a plurality [that is, the most votes, no
matter how few] is the successor." (Emphasis added.) The winner,
thus, may only garner a relatively small percentage of the overall
vote. In a field of 100 candidates, even a person who gets only
about 15% of the vote may stand a decent chance. And worse still,
that winner's percentage of the recall-successor vote might not
reflect his or her actual support among the State's population --
which might be much lower -- because most people don't vote. A
candidate with narrow but deep support could win, especially if
there is low voter turnout. Moreover, a plurality system doesn't
take account of voters' dislike for a particular candidate. Thus,
the California recall winner not only may enjoy only narrow support,
but also may well be reviled by a supermajority of voters. Put
another way, a "fringe" candidate could win the recall-successor
election - leaving a huge majority of California voters both
effectively disenfranchised, and deeply dismayed. In the Future, Single
Transferable Voting Should Be Used To Allow Instant Runoff
Is there any solution to this mess, short of amending the
California Constitution to break up the recall process into two
separate elections on two separate days? Fortunately, the answer is
a loud yes - though it isn't an answer that will be able to help
with the current, troubled recall. The solution is Single
Transferable Voting (STV), or an "Instant Runoff." My brother, Akhil
Reed Amar, and I have explained the system in an earlier column.
Here's how it works: When a voter casts her ballot, she lists all
her candidate preferences: First choice, second choice, third
choice, and so on. She could still just list her first choice; she's
not forced to rank everyone. But if she wanted to, she could express
all the relative preferences she has. How does this help? Consider
a simple illustration. Suppose that 4 candidates are running in an
election in which 100 persons vote. A gets 31 votes, followed by B
with 30 votes, C with 29 votes, and D with 10 votes. The plurality
winner obviously is A. But A wouldn't necessarily be the winner in
an STV system. STV repeatedly drops the lowest vote getter, but
doesn't exclude those who voted for that person. Instead, it
transfers their votes to their second choice. So suppose, in our
example, that everyone who voted for D ranked C as their second
choice. D (the lowest vote-getter) drops out. But his ten votes go
to C. Now our line-up looks like this: C has 39 votes; A has 31
votes; B has 30 votes. Again, the lowest vote getter drops out -
this time, it's B. Now B's 30 votes are assigned to those voters'
second choices. Suppose 20 named C as a second choice, and 10 listed
A. That gives us our new line-up: C has 59 votes (39 plus 20 second
choices), A has 41 (31 plus 10 second choices). And C - not A - is
the winner. That makes sense, for A is considerably less popular
than C, when voters' second choice preferences are taken into
account. STV can be used for virtually any election, but let's
focus on governorships for a moment. In 1998 Jesse Ventura, won the
Minnesota governorship with a bare plurality in a three-way
race--37% compared to 34% for Republican Norm Coleman and 28% for
Democrat Skip Humphrey. But under STV, in comparison, Ventura would
have won only if a very good chunk--almost half--of the Humphrey
voters who put down a second choice picked him and not Coleman. As a
result, 63% of the electorate would not have had their preferences
totally ignored. STV itself is not without problems. It might
promote fringe candidates to run in the first place, because they
might get more initial first-choice votes if supporters knew that
their votes would not be wholly wasted, but quickly reassigned to
more major candidates. But at the end of the day, STV would
generally make it harder for a fringe candidate to win with a simple
plurality in a three-way race, like the one that elected Ventura, or
a 30-way race, as is likely in California. Elections are the key
moments in a democracy when the people themselves speak, and there
is much to be said for allowing them to speak clearly and
communicate their nuanced views - all their preferences, not just
their first choice. STV may be a bit complicated, but voters can
handle it. After all, they're handling the two current two-part
California recall ballot already. Moreover, the idea of second
choice is a simple, familiar one: If Ruffles are sold out, get
Pringles. If Americans can handle this level of complexity as
shoppers, why not as voters? We're not talking about a butterfly
ballot here. This system is intuitive enough that, with some voter
education, it could be used even in a high school student council
election. Would STV have helped Davis himself - assuming that he,
miraculously, could prevail on his legal claim to be included as a
successor candidate? The answer is almost certainly no. If 51% of
the voters voted to recall Davis, they'd probably rank him low as a
successor choice as well. But they also might prefer him strongly to
a "fringe" candidate - and an STV ballot would let them register
that preference. Actually, if STV were in the scheme, Davis might
be more likely to be recalled in the first place, because voters who
preferred to recall him - with all their preferences taken into
account - would no longer have to fear ending up with a "fringe"
candidate whom they like much less. Ironically then, what is good
about Davis' lawsuit - the idea that democracy should mean that
voters' preferences are taken into account insofar as possible -
wouldn't be good for Davis. A truly preference-favoring system like
STV might only make his plight worse. The Hope for STV in the
Future: San Francisco's Attempt to Use the System If this recall
election shapes up to be the debacle some predict, California may be
spurred to use STV the next time. There will doubtless be
resistance: Last week, the State put the kibosh on San Francisco's
efforts to move to STV in its own municipal elections. But that
resistance shouldn't be the last word - STV, in the end, is the most
deeply and truly democratic solution there is. Voters in San
Francisco approved the STV device as a local experiment 17 months
ago. But state officials say their plans are still too complicated
and logistically expensive to be implemented in time for local
elections next spring. State election officials may be right that
STV can be expensive and somewhat foreign right now. But as the
recall melee illustrates, so are the alternatives. And STV's
democracy-promoting virtues far outweigh the modest burdens of its
slightly greater complexity. |
