The following is a list of districts where Bill Clinton's performance changed most dramatically relative to his national average in the presidential race. Given that his national average rose by 6% (43% to 49%), any district that gave him the same percentage of the vote in 1996 as in 1992 was by this measure a negative shift of 6%. Clinton's absolute percentage only dropped in 14 districts -- it remained constant in another 12. (In addition, it dropped in four other districts due to redistricting -- a clear way to demonstrate the impact of district line changes).
The drops in Clinton's relative performance can be simplistically attributed to three major factors: his tough stance against tobacco; shifting demographics due to factory closings; and a few districts where the vote for Green Party candidate Ralph Nader was high. Clinton's percentage rose most dramatically in two kinds of districts: ones in Massachusetts (in which his percentage rose by at least 13% in nine of ten districts) and eight districts with large Latino populations.
| BIGGEST CLINTON GAINS (22 districts: gains of 13% or more) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Up 17% | |||
| 1.(t) | CA 33. Lucille R.-Allard (D)* | Clinton: 80% | (Latino) |
| NJ 13. Robert Menendez (D)* | Clinton: 71% | (Latino) | |
| Up 16% | |||
| 3. (t) | MA 5. Martin Meehan (D)* | Clinton: 58% | (MA) |
| MA 9. Joe Moakley (D)* | Clinton: 64% | (MA) | |
| NY 12. Nydia Velazquez (D)* | Clinton: 84% | (Latino) | |
| Up 15% | |||
| 6. (t) | IL 4. Luis Gutierrez (D)* | Clinton: 80% | (Latino) |
| MA 2. Richard Neal (D)* | Clinton: 61% | (MA) | |
| MA 6. John Tierney (D) | Clinton: 59% | (MA) | |
| Up 14% | |||
| 9. (t) | FL 21. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R)* | Clinton: 45% | (Latino) |
| MA 3. Jim McGovern (D) | Clinton: 60% | (MA) | |
| MA 7. Edward Markey (D)* | Clinton: 64% | (MA) | |
| MA 10. Bill Delahunt (D) | Clinton: 56% | (MA) | |
| NY 2. Rick Lazio (R)* | Clinton: 54% | ||
| Up 13% | |||
| 14. | AZ 2. Ed Pastor (D)* | Clinton: 64% | (Latino) |
| AZ 4. John Shadegg (R)* | Clinton: 44% | ||
| CA 31. Matthew Martinez (D)* | Clinton: 65% | (Latino) | |
| CA 34. Esteban Torres (D)* | Clinton: 64% | (Latino) | |
| CT 5. Jim Maloney (D) | Clinton: 48% | ||
| FL 23. Alcee Hastings (D)* | Clinton: 75% | ||
| ME 2. John Baldacci (D)* | Clinton: 51% | ||
| MA 1. John Olver (D)* | Clinton: 61% | (MA) | |
| MA 4. Barney Frank (D)* | Clinton: 64% | (MA) | |
| BIGGEST CLINTON RELATIVE LOSSES (26 districts: constant to down 4%) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Down 4% | |||
| 1. | CA 9. Ronald Dellums (D)* | Clinton: 75% | (Nader) |
| Down 3% | |||
| 2. | TN 6. Bart Gordon (D)* | Clinton: 45% | (Tobacco) |
| Down 2% | |||
| 3. (t) | CA 8. Nancy Pelosi (D)* | Clinton: 74% | (Nader) |
| NC 5. Richard Burr (R)* | Clinton: 41% | (Tobacco) | |
| TN 4. Van Hilleary (R)* | Clinton: 46% | (Tobacco) | |
| Down 1% | |||
| 6.(t) | AL 4. Robert Aderholt (R) | Clinton: 43% | |
| AS 2. Vic Snyder (D) | Clinton: 55% | ||
| KY 1. Edward Whitfield (R)* | Clinton: 47% | (Tobacco) | |
| KY 5. Harold Rogers (R)* | Clinton: 47% | (Tobacco) | |
| MO 8. Jo Ann Emerson (R) | Clinton: 45% | ||
| NC 10. Cass Ballenger (R)* | Clinton: 31% | (Tobacco) | |
| PA 4. Ron Klink (D)* | Clinton: 47% | (Factory Closings) | |
| PA 12. John Murtha (D)* | Clinton: 46% | (Factory Closings) | |
| PA 20. Frank Mascara (D)* | Clinton: 50% | (Factory Closings) | |
| Constant | |||
| 15. (t) | CA 2. Wally Herger (R)* | Clinton: 36% | |
| CA 29. Henry Waxman (D)* | Clinton: 66% | ||
| GA 9. Nathan Deal (R)* | Clinton: 35% | ||
| IL19. Open [G. Poshard (D)] | Clinton: 47% | ||
| KS 1. Jerry Moran (R) | Clinton: 28% | ||
| KY 2. Ron Lewis (R)* | Clinton: 41% | (Tobacco) | |
| MS 1. Roger Wicker (R)* | Clinton: 42% | ||
| MO 7. Roy Blunt (R) | Clinton: 37% | ||
| NC 11. Charles Taylor (R)* | Clinton: 43% | (Tobacco) | |
| NC 7. Mike McIntyre (D) | Clinton: 44% | (Tobacco) | |
| PA 18. Mike Doyle (D)* | Clinton: 52% | (Factory Closings) | |
| TN 1. Bill Jenkins (R) | Clinton: 37% | (Tobacco) | |
| SHIFTS DUE LARGELY TO REDISTRICTING IN 1995-1996 | |
|---|---|
| GA 2. Sanford Bishop (D)* | Clinton: 49% (down 11%) |
| GA 4. Cynthia McKinney (D)* | Clinton: 64% (down 3%) |
| GA 11. John Linder (R)* | Clinton: 37% (down 4%) |
| LA 4. Jim McCrery (R)* | Clinton: 52% (up 15%) |
| LA 5. John Cooksey (R) | Clinton: 47% (down 20%) |
| LA 6. Richard Baker (R)* | Clinton: 50% (up 15%) |
Produced in July 1997 by
The Center for Voting and Democracy
PO Box 60037 Washington, DC 20039