Democratic candidates defeated 18 incumbents in 1996 -- the best year for Democratic challengers since 1982, and the third best since 1964. Only two victories were against the 115 Republican incumbents in districts where Clinton ran more than 5% below his national average, while four of five Republicans lost in districts where Clinton received more than 8% above his national average -- despite Republicans having a fundraising edge in three of these defeats. None of the 100 Democratic incumbents lost in districts where Clinton received at least 5% more than his national average. No incumbent lost who had won by at least 21% in 1994 -- the average victory margin in 1994 was 34%.
| Democratic Wins (18) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seat | Winning % | Spending Edge? (Yes/No) |
Clinton 1996 |
Incumbent Vote Margin, 1994 |
Untouchable? (Yes/No) |
| CA-10 | 49% | Yes | 48% (-1) | 20% | No |
| CA-22 | 48% | No | 44% (-5) | 1% | No |
| CA-46 | 47% | Yes | 49% (0) | 20% | No |
| CT-5 | 52% | No | 48% (-1) | 7% | No |
| IL-5 | 64% | Yes | 63% (+14) | 9% | No |
| ME-1 | 55% | Yes | 52% (+3) | 3% | No |
| MA-3 | 53% | No | 60% (+11) | 10% | No |
| MA-6 | 48% | No | 59% (+10) | 3% | No |
| MI-8 | 54% | No | 49% (0) | 7% | No |
| NJ-8 | 51% | No | 58% (+9) | 1% | No |
| NY-4 | 57% | Yes | 56% (+7) | 13% | No |
| NC-2 | 53% | No | 42% (-7) | 12% | No |
| NC-4 | 54% | Yes | 49% (0) | 1% | No |
| OH-6 | 51% | No | 45% (-4) | 2% | No |
| OH-10 | 51% | No | 51% (+2) | 13% | No |
| OR-5 | 51% | Yes | 47% (-2) | 3% | No |
| TX-9 | 53% | No | 48% (-1) | 7% | No |
| WA-9 | 50% | No | 51% (+2) | 4% | No |
| Republican Wins (3) | |||||
| KY-3 | 50% | Yes | 53% (+4) | 0% | No |
| MO-9 | 49% | Yes | 44% (-5) | 5% | No |
| UT-3 | 51% | Yes | 29% (-20) | 19% | No |
Produced in July 1997 by
The Center for Voting and Democracy
PO Box 60037 Washington, DC 20039