Updated: October 2006
This study looks at the decline in voter turnout between primary and primary runoff elections for federal races from 1994-2006. It is based on the two-party results of those elections.
In the vast majority of cases, it is possible to look for trends in the relationship between turnout and a candidate's race, gender, affiliation and/or office sought (House or Senate).
The study also looks at comebacks, or elections in which the runoff winner had trailed in the first round primary, and incumbency.
Summary of Findings:
Overall: Of 104 total runoffs for the period under study, 101 saw turnout declines. Mean turnout decline for the period was 34.7%. Median decline was 32.9%.
Over time: Turnout dropoff worsened since 2004.
2006: 43.31%
2004: 38.96%
2002: 30.20%
2000: 47.96%
1998: 31.62%
1996: 35.56%
1994: 28.10%
House vs. Senate: 39.59% dropoff in Senate races. 33.91% dropoff in House races.
By party: 34.54% dropoff in Democrat primaries. 35.36% dropoff in Republican primaries.
Gender: 26.08% dropoff in races with female candidates.
Race: 34.95% dropoff in races with candidates of color. Note the sample is incomplete; several races are omitted.
Comebacks: 29.17% of candidates trailed in the first round but won the runoff (28 candidates).
[Get the data (Excel 130K)]
Election Day '09 was a roller-coaster for election reformers. Instant runoff voting had a great night in Minnesota, where St. Paul voters chose to implement IRV for its city elections, and Minneapolis voters used IRV for the first time—with local media touting it as a big success. As the Star-Tribune noted in endorsing IRV for St. Paul, Tuesday’s elections give the Twin Cities a chance to show the whole state of Minnesota the benefits of adopting IRV. There were disappointments in Lowell and Pierce County too, but high-profile multi-candidate races in New Jersey and New York keep policymakers focused on ways to reform elections; the Baltimore Sun and Miami Herald were among many newspapers publishing commentary from FairVote board member and former presidential candidate John Anderson on how IRV can mitigate the problems of plurality elections.