Illinois Poll Shows Support for IRV
FairVote, in partnership with the Midwest Democracy Center and
Roosevelt University,on Feb. 20-22, 2004 conducted a telephone poll in
Illinois heading into the state's March 16 primary. The poll
included several questions directly about instant runoff
voting.
Here is a preliminary review of results. There also
was a news article in the
Daily Herald (IL).
Our poll was done with
550 Democrats and 550 Republicans. We asked for second and third
choices in both the U.S. Senate primaries (each major party has
large fields of candidates), in the Democratic presidential primary
and, for Republicans, for president in the general
election.
We asked four questions measuring support for
instant runoff voting. Here are the results. Note the strongest
support was for using IRV for general elections for the
President.
1. In some previous primary elections, the
winner has earned less than 50% of the vote because votes are spread
among several candidates. Are you comfortable with the current way
of voting, which can result in a
non-majority winner, or would
you like to see changes that would better assure that the winner
is supported by more than 50% of primary
voters?
Comfortable with current way of voting-
54%
Would like
to see changes -
41%
Don't know -
5%
2. In some parts of the United States, voters can pick
both a first-choice candidate and a second-choice so that its
easier to know which candidate has majority support. Would you like
to have the option to pick a first-choice candidate and a
second-choice candidate when you vote in Illinois
primaries?
Yes -
47.0%
No -
46.5%
Not sure -
5%
3. Would you like to have this option when electing mayors
and local elected
officials?
Yes -
44%
No - 51%
Not sure - 5%
4. When electing the U.S. President, each
state has a certain number of Electoral College votes. In
Illinois, all the Electoral College votes are awarded to the
candidate who gets the most votes in the popular election. Would you
like a second choice option to better ensure that the winner of
Illinois Electoral College votes has the majority support of
Illinois
voters?
Yes - 50%
No - 41%
Not sure - 9%
* Fully one-third of voters admit to
being likely to switch from their favorite choice in the primary if
they perceive that candidate would not have a chance to win. That
shows the self-fulfilling power of voter perception that can
boost the power of the media and of polling and increase the
odds for candidates who have the resources to spend money early and
get attention as a front-runner.
* The survey of second
choices had useful nuggets, showing an unofficial alliance among
supporters of the top two front-running Democrats in the Senate
primary -- which could lead to attacks between those campaigns, as
they're going after similar voters -- and showing just how solid
John Kerry's support now is in the Democratic presidential
race.
* You can see the full survey
here.
Also posted there is FairVote's initial analysis, done in
conjunction with James Lewis of Roosevelt
University
Illinois Drive to Revive Cumulative Voting
In 1999 the Institute for Government and Public Affairs (IGPA) at
the University of Illinois received a major grant to conduct a study
of the impact of the state's conversion from cumulative voting to
single-member districts in 1980. The IGPA formed a task force to
analyze different electoral systems and make recommendations.
Co-chaired by former Republican governor Jim Edgar and former
Democratic Congressman and federal judge Abner Mikva, the task force
members included leading state legislators and civic leaders.
The task force has called for reviving
cumulative voting, and the Institute for Government and Public
Affairs has issued an excellent report about their deliberations and
the history of cumulative voting in the state. The Illinois story is
a testimony to the impact of even very modest full representation
plans. In this case, it still required close to 25% of the vote to
win a seat in a in three-seat district, but this change was
significant for a broader range of political forces to participate
in elections, win representation and contribute to good
policy-making.
Read the executive summary of the report
here (pdf)