Ten Stories About Election 2006
What You Won't Learn From The Polls
Pundits predict a Democratic sweep on November 7, 2006. But that's only the the tip of the iceberg...
- What Do Votes Have To Do With It?
Why a Democratic vote majority might not mean a Congressional majority - Monopoly Politics
FairVote's seminal prediction model and how, on November 9, we'll predict nearly all House winners... for 2008 - The Untouchables
The growing list of House members on total cruise control - The Gerrymander & Money Myths
The real roots of non-competition and GOP advantage - The Republican Turnout Machine Myth
If not real in 2004, why would it be now? - The 50-State Question
Measuring Dean's gamble in 2006... and 2016 - Downballot GOP Blues
What a Democratic wave could mean for state legislatures - Of Spoilers & Minority Rule
Where split votes could swing seats - and already have - The Democrats' Paradox
Why a win could shake up House leaders and the presidential race - Slouching Toward Diversity
Who's to gain when a few more white men lose?
With appendices:
- Incumbency Bumps: Measuring the bonus for House members, 1996-2004
- Horserace Talk: The inside track on projecting 2006 Congressional races
- Open Seat Analysis: How the Monopoly Politics model measures 2006 open seats
[Download the Report - PDF 637kb]
[Check out Monopoly Politics 2006]