In Economic Downturn, Recalls May SpreadBy Robert Tanner
Published July 30th 2003 in Associated Press
Take a weak economy. Watch jobs disappear. Raise taxes, cut programs. Let the resentment build.
The perfect scenario for a governor to face a recall, political strategists say. But while those elements are already in place for most states, California is the only place holding a recall election.
Most observers see California as a special case though some warn its recall, if successful, could inspire efforts.
"This is giving recall a big name. Sour grapes people, losers, opposition groups will think about it more readily," said Tom Cronin, author of "Direct Democracy: The Politics of Initiative, Referendum, & Recall."
Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster working with some groups in support of California Gov. Gray Davis (news - web sites), said: "It could be more of a trend, like term limits. But if California torches itself, others won't touch it."
Seventeen states beside California currently allow for recalls of state leaders but none have major campaigns brewing right now, the National Association of Secretaries of State said.
However, there is talk in Nevada of a petition drive to recall GOP Gov. Kenny Guinn, who took the state Legislature to court in his successful push for new business taxes.
Short-lived recall drives that never make it to the ballot are common, said Mary Kiffmeyer, Minnesota's secretary of state. "You have the threat of one, talk of one, maybe take a first step," she said.
In her state, a petition to recall former Minn. Gov. Jesse Ventura made it to the courts in 1999, where the state's chief justice ruled the governor didn't meet the criteria for malfeasance. In 1987, a petition drive in Arizona sought to recall former Gov. Evan Meacham. He was impeached first.
The only governor ever to be recalled was North Dakota Gov. Lynn J. Frazier in 1921.
California makes it easier than most to recall a statewide elected official. It only requires 12 percent of the number of voters from the previous election; most states require at least 25 percent.
And California also gives more time than most places to gather signatures for a recall petition (160 days), and also does not require any allegations of specific wrongdoing (six states require proponents to cite grounds for a recall).
But more than the ease of pursuing a recall, what makes California unique is Davis: He went through a tough election campaign in 2002, a debilitating energy crisis and, most recently, a drawn-out stalemate over a $38 billion budget deficit.
Most observers also say California's approach to citizen-driven direct democracy is not so readily embraced in other states.
"Californians vote on everything," said Gene Ulm, a GOP pollster. "And it's easy. They err and err on the side of ballot access. I'm not sure those stars line up elsewhere."
Still, everyone with an interest in elections and politics is mesmerized by the West Coast circus, and looking to what the ramifications might be.
The recall against Davis, despite its partisan backers, has echoes of the populist sentiment that launched movements for term limits and tax restraints, said Rob Richie, executive director of the Center for Voting and Democracy in suburban Washington.
"Sure, a lot of money was spent, but a lot of people signed those petitions," Richie said. "Voters continue to feel rather dissatisfied with our elections and our democracy. ... This is an expression of that."
Dennis Polhill, chairman of the Initiative & Referendum Institute, said more awareness around the country about recalls would give voters more clout.
"It's a signal for elected officials to be alert and to be on best behavior," he said.
But who is to judge best behavior, when governors and state legislators from coast to coast have been struggling with budget deficits? Program cuts are sure to anger someone, as are taxes and fee hikes.
At this summer's annual gathering of secretaries of state, leaders were watching the news transfixed, Kiffmeyer said. "We're keeping our eye out and telling our staffs to hit the books and be prepared for any recall issues in our own states."