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National direct election of the president is good for California

By Steven Hill
Published September 28th 2006 in Capitol Weekly

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has sitting on his desk a bill that he ought to sign. Signing AB 2948 would establish California as a national leader in the effort to create a nationwide popular vote for president, which recent elections have shown would be a more democratic method than the 18th Century Electoral College.

Unfortunately, AB 2948 has become bogged down in the usual divisive partisan sand-box squabbling that afflicts our national politics. Democratic legislators voted to pass this bill with near unanimity, while Republican legislators treated this legislative bill as if it is radioactive. Perhaps the Republican view opposing changes to how we elect the president has become skewed by the 2000 election, where Al Gore won the national popular vote but lost the Electoral College vote and the presidency.

But this is a misreading of the partisan consequences of the Electoral College. In fact, the current method nearly cost George W. Bush the presidency in the 2004 election. If a mere 60,000 voters in Ohio had changed their minds and voted for Democrat John Kerry instead of President Bush, Kerry would have won the presidency even though he still would have lost the national popular vote to Bush by 3 million votes. No doubt if that had occurred, quite a few more Republicans would be questioning the relevance of the Electoral College.

But, beyond partisan considerations, there are other reasons that the Electoral College--which has not been copied by any states to elect governors and by no other democracy around the world--is failing our country. Its greatest defect is that it turns what should be a national election into one where only a handful of states and a handful of voters matter. Voters are treated differently based on where you live.

In this era of Red vs. Blue America, most states have become lopsided strongholds for one of the two major parties. No more than 10 out of 50 states are up for grabs, the rest--including our three largest states, California, Texas and New York--are predictably safe for one party or the other. In fact, months before the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, it was obvious that the elections would be decided in only two states: Ohio and Florida.

All the other states, and the voters who live in them, were ignored. The candidates did not visit most states, they didn't even spend money on TV ads in most states. And the 2008 presidential election likely will be decided in Ohio and Florida as well.

But it gets worse. In the modern era of campaigning, political strategists are guided by polls and focus groups to figure out which Ohioans or Floridians are comfortably in one camp or the other, and which voters are undecided. All campaign appeals and TV ads then are targeted at the undecided voters--the infamous swing voters. The issues of the presidential election thus become ones that appeal to a small number of voters.

So, what should be a national election in which the candidates are debating the most pressing issues of our times instead becomes one decided by a handful of voters in a handful of states. The issues are dumbed down to those that pander to a small minority. All other voters, and the issues they care about, are left on the political sidelines. Most voters don't even need to bother showing up, and the campaign strategists know it.

This is leading to the impoverishment of our national politics, since most voters are not engaged during the most important of our elections. So, the current Electoral College system is not good for Republicans, Democrats or for Americans. It is a product of another century, and the readings of Madison's recordings of the Constitutional Convention reveal that its design was not one founded on the framers' brilliance, but rather drafted by a confused group of men who had no precedents to guide them. The Electoral College broke down within the first couple of elections, prompting the passage of the 12th Amendment in 1804.

Now, in the 21st century, it is creating havoc again, and it is time to shove the indirect election of our president into the historical dustbin, just as our nation once did when we passed the 17th Amendment to require direct election of United States senators.

The bill sitting on Schwarzenegger's desk takes baby steps toward creating a national direct election. Rather than passing a constitutional amendment, AB 2948 utilizes the ability of states to enter into treaties with each other to award each state's electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote. Once a critical mass of states wielding a majority of electoral votes (currently at least 270) has agreed to the treaty, only then would it go into effect among all those states. At that point, the presidential election would become a de facto national popular vote.

So, signing this bill does not commit California to any change until a majority of Americans in other states enact the treaty as well. By signing AB 2948, Gov. Schwarzenegger will show Californians--indeed the nation--how to rise above knee-jerk partisan reaction and do what is right for our state and our country.

Steven Hill is director of the New America Foundation's political-reform program and author of "10 Steps to Repair American Democracy"