Democrat Brian Baird trained for a marathon but is headed for a cakewalk. Baird represents the anything-but-safe 3rd Congressional District of Southwest Washington, a place that 10 years ago elected Christian conservative Linda Smith and went for George Bush four years ago.

But this year, Baird faces three little-known challengers who together have raised $58,000. Just in case, though, Baird's got $930,000 in his campaign fund.

It's the same story in the 1st, 2nd and 9th districts, where Democrat incumbents Jay Inslee, Rick Larsen and Adam Smith have filled war chests only to face longshots without major Republican Party backing.

Don't be fooled by Washington's two high-profile competitive U.S. House contests this year. The brawls over open seats being vacated by Republicans Jennifer Dunn and George Nethercutt mask a larger truth: The vast majority of the U.S. Congress races should prove about as suspenseful as a national political-party convention.

Only one of Washington's congressional incumbents, 4th District Republican Doc Hastings, R-Pasco, faces a reasonably well-financed challenger. But Hastings, too, is expected to win re-election easily in the heavily Republican district.

What's happening in Washington follows a nationwide trend toward less competition that's been evident for decades. Across the country, only about 40 of 435 congressional races are expected to be competitive this year, national political handicappers say, and fewer than half of those are considered true tossups.

'We have coronations'

"We don't have elections, we have coronations typically," said Robert Richie, executive director of the Center for Voting and Democracy. His Maryland-based think tank notes that 356 House races two years ago were decided by landslide margins of at least 20 percent. Absent a dramatic political shift, this year is not expected to be much different.

Chris Vance, chairman of the state Republican Party, doesn't disagree. "The hardest thing to do in American politics is to unseat an incumbent member of the U.S. House," he says.

Vance would know, having been clobbered by Smith in 2000's 9th District race. Given the difficulty of beating incumbents, and limited amounts of campaign money, Vance said it makes sense for the GOP to concentrate first on the open seats.
 
This year that means the 8th District seat on the Eastside, where Dunn is retiring, and the 5th district, which includes Spokane, where Nethercutt is leaving his seat to run for the U.S. Senate against Democratic Sen. Patty Murray.

Experts attribute the lack of competitiveness around the country to partisan redistricting, which has made the average congressional district safer for incumbents, and the increasing cash needed for a successful challenge.

The dearth of competitive races is a contrast to Washington's recent, fickle history. The 2002 elections were the first since 1990 in which all members of the delegation were re-elected.

Limited money

Vance said part of the problem lies with campaign-finance laws that limit the amount of money available to political parties. That means the parties have to carefully choose which races to prioritize. Candidates taking on incumbents will always find themselves at the bottom of the list, he said.

The lack of a major GOP challenge is not surprising in Seattle's liberal 7th Congressional District, where President Bush got 21 percent of the vote in 2000, or in the 6th District, where Democrat Norm Dicks is seeking a 15th term.

But Republicans have also failed to mount serious challenges this year even in swing districts where they have fared well in the past.

The GOP was set to challenge Inslee in the 1st District, but had to switch gears when King County Councilwoman Jane Hague dropped out of the race in February. Inslee has raised $1.2 million and now faces Republican Randy Eastwood, a Kirkland real-estate agent, and Libertarian Charles Moore.

In the 2nd District, second-term Democrat Rick Larsen is being challenged by three Republicans: Island County Auditor Suzanne Sinclair, Bellingham real-estate agent Larry Klepinger and Glenn Coggeshell. Libertarian Bruce Guthrie has also filed.

South Puget Sound's 9th District was explicitly drawn in 1992 to be a swing district and has gone for both Republicans and Democrats. But Democrat Adam Smith hasn't faced a close election since he narrowly beat incumbent Republican Randy Tate in 1996.

That trend may continue this year as Smith has been challenged by two low-profile Republicans, including C. Mark Greene, who ran as a Democrat in Alaska in 2000. A Green Party candidate, Robert Losey, has also filed.

A spokeswoman for the Democrats mocked the GOP's offerings as evidence of a weakened party.

"I find it stunning they (Republicans) couldn't come up with one credible challenger to any of our incumbents," said Kirstin Brost, spokeswoman for the state Democrats.

Democrats are gunning for the two Congressional open seats while also fielding a challenger in Central Washington's 4th District. Sandy Matheson, a businesswoman and civic leader from the Tri-Cities, has raised $170,000 to take on incumbent Hastings, making her easily the state's best-financed challenger. National prognosticators, though, still rate her a longshot.

Some say Washington has retained some competitiveness because its redistricting efforts have been relatively fair. Under a 1983 amendment to the state constitution, Washington leaves its congressional and state legislative redistricting in the hands of an appointed commission.

Other states still allow lines to be set by their legislatures, where parties have used the power for political gain. In Texas, for example, Republicans in control of the legislature forced a politically charged redistricting that analysts predict will cost Democrats as many as six seats in that state.

In California, which has 53 U.S. House seats, just one — an open seat — is regarded as competitive this year, said Nathan Gonzales, political editor for the Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter that rates congressional races. Districts in the state were redrawn a few years ago in a manner that increased the protections for incumbents of both parties, he said. In 2002, not one incumbent from California was defeated.

To illustrate just how predictable most congressional districts have become, the Center for Voting and Democracy has taken to predicting the outcome of races based on the partisan split in the district and whether an incumbent is running — without knowing anything about the challengers. The center has been correct in all but one of its 1,200 predictions over the past several years.

While many observers have lamented the lack of competition, there are different ideas on what to do about it.

Richie said the way districts are drawn is part of the problem but argued the nation's "winner takes all" electoral system is the biggest culprit. The system effectively prevents third parties from becoming a major force.

Richie advocates voting reforms, such as a system of larger congressional districts that each have three representatives. In that system, voters could cast ballots for three candidates, ranking their choices.

That system could boost minor-party representation and lead more voters to have at least one person in Congress for whom they voted, Richie said.

"We think there should be motivation for people to participate, to learn about politics, to actively engage with what House members are doing and have a chance to change that representation," said Richie. "A lot of people aren't involved right now."