2004 Facts in Focus: The Least Competitive U.S. House Elections in American History

National Lowlights

  • Competition: The 2004 U.S. House election recorded an unprecedented lack of competition. Fewer than 3% (12) of the 435 races were won by a margin of less than 7%; only 10 races were won by tight margins of 5% or less. There has never been such a small number of highly competitive races in American history.

  • Incumbents: Only five incumbents lost to challengers - only three outside Texas, where new partisan lines were drawn in 2003. The only election in history with fewer challenger victories was in 2002, when four challengers won. Only 12 incumbents (3% of those seeking election) won by competitive margins of 10% or less. Overall, close to 86% of incumbents were re-elected by margins of at least 20%.

  • Victory margin: The average victory margin was 40, meaning the average two-party race was won by 70% to 30% of the vote. Seven of every eight (83%) U.S. House races were won by landslide margins of at least 20% in 2004. Only 23 races (5%) were won by competitive margins of less than 10%.

  • Seat changes: 13 of the nation’s 435 House seats changed party affiliation in 2004. Outside of Texas, 397 of 403 House seats stayed with the same party.

  • Uncontested races: In the wake of plans drawn by Democrats in Georgia and Republicans in Florida, nearly half of those states’ 38 House races were uncontested in 2004. Nationally, almost a quarter of all states had at least one uncontested race.

  • Landslides: In 14 states, every race was won by a landslide margin of at least 20% in 2004. Only four states (all with less than three seats) recorded no landslide wins.

  • Representation: Men hold more than 85% of the seats in the U.S. House. Racial minorities’ share of House seats is half of their share of the U.S. population.

  • Apathy: Nearly one out of every 11 voters skipped over their House race on the ballot. Despite a surge in turnout due to the presidential race, more than 62% of eligible voters - nearly two in three – did not vote for a winning House Member.

State Lowlights

  • Florida: Incumbents have won 139 of 140 races in Florida from 1992-2004. 24 out of 25 (96%) House races in 2004 were won by landslides.

  • Massachusetts: Of the state’s 30 House races in 2000-2004, 16 were completely uncontested. Six more were won by at least 40%, and the remaining 8 won by at least 20% landslides. The state’s 65% overall margin of victory in House races was the nation’s largest. Seven incumbents have won their last four races by landslides.

  • Arizona: Voters adopted a redistricting reform proposal in 2000 that established a commission to draw district lines, yet competition actually decreased in the state in elections in 2002-2004. Fifteen of 16 U.S. House races in these two elections were won by landslide margins of at least 20%, including four races by more than 40%.

  • Georgia: The average margin of victory for the state overall was 61% -- more than six times greater than a margin that could be considered competitive.

  • California: 51 of the 53 House races held in 2004 were won by landslide margins that exceeded 20%. Of the 101 incumbents who ran for reelection in 2002 and 2004, all were reelected, and 99 of these 101 incumbents won by landslides.

  • Iowa: Unlike many other states, Iowa’s districts are not designed to create safe, single-party majorities. Despite this relatively neutral approach to redistricting, the incumbent reelection rate for 1982-2004 was 98%.

  • Alabama: All seven U.S. House races were won by landslide victory margins in 2004, with a statewide margin of about 48%. From 2000-2004, 20 out of 21 House races were won by landslide victory margins, and 27 out of 28 races were won by comfortable margins of at least 10% in 1998-2004.

  • Louisiana: Incumbents have gone 36 for 36 since 1992. 1992 was the only election in elections between 1982 - 2004 when an incumbent was defeated.

  • Maryland: Since 1994, incumbents won 45 of 46 races, with 41 of those wins by landslide victory margins of at least 20%. All eight U.S. House races were won by landslide margins of 20% or more in 2004.

  • Michigan: Of 149 House incumbents who sought reelection during the 1986-2004 period, only one lost in a general election. 12 out of 14 Michigan incumbents won by landslide margins of at least 20% in 2004.

  • Missouri: All seven of Missouri’s incumbents have won by landslide victories for at least two consecutive elections, classifying them as “untouchable” for 2006. Three of those landslides were won by margins exceeding 40%. Incumbents won 45 out of 45 seats in 1994-2004.  

  • New York: The average victory margin was down from 53% in 2002, but more than half of races in 2004 were won by margins of at least 40%. In 2002-2004, 35 of 58 races were won by these runaway margins, and 10 races were completely uncontested. All of the incumbents running for re-election in 2004 won. Of the last 323 incumbents running for re-election in New York, 315 won (98%).

  • Ohio: No House races were decided by less than 10% in either 2002 or 2004, and only two races were decided by less than 20%. 70 of 71 incumbents have been reelected.

  • South Carolina: All of South Carolina's U.S. House seats were won by landslide margins of at least 20% in both 2004 and 2002. Of the 57 incumbents seeking reelection in House races in South Carolina from 1984-2004, 56 were successful.

  • Tennessee: Incumbents were a perfect 95 for 95 in their re-election bids in the 1982-2004 period The average margin of victory in House races in 2004 was 48%.

  • Virginia: Incumbents won all 51 of their races in the 1996-2004 period by landslide margins of at least 20%. Of all 55 races in these elections, 53 were won by landslide. Of 44 House races in 1998-2004, only 23 were contested by both major parties. Since 1994, all incumbents have won their reelection races by landslides.