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Monopoly Politics
2004:
Even Less Competition Than in 2002
Initial Release
November 8, 2002
Updated September 15,
2004
On November 6, 2002 -- one day after the mid-term
congressional elections -- we issued our initial projections in more than 350 races for
elections in November 2004. We used the same methodology that had a 99.9% accuracy
rate in projecting winners in more than 1,200 races from 1996-2002.
In March 2004, we updated these projections, based on the following
factors: newly open seats (where an incumbent would not be running for
re-election); Texas congressional district line changes; and updated data on 2000
presidential results by congressional district (in 2002 we had made estimates in 50
districts for which this data had not been available). Since
then we have only made additional changes based on newly-created open seats,
party shifts (two Democratic incumbents have changed parties) and special
election results (Democrats won two special elections). Our final number
of projected winners is 351.
The 2004 Monopoly Politics projections are now available
in html format.
Our complete spreadsheet can
be downloaded as a 1.7MB Microsoft Excel file or as a 500K zip file. If you choose
to view this file as an Excel workbook, please right-click and save the file to
your hard drive. If, in Excel, you have difficulties using the
spreadsheet, go to "Window" and then "Unfreeze Panes" so you
can scroll down the page. This
spreadsheet contains all the data used to make projections along with the actual
projection model and allows the users to modify a variety of parameters to
observe their impact on the accuracy of the projections.
The 2002 elections were strikingly
uncompetitive:
2002 Election Results
| Range |
Number of
races |
| Landslide wins (>=20% margin) |
356 |
| Comfortable wins (>=10) |
41 |
| Tight (<10% margin) |
38 |
| Total Races |
435 |
Here are our Monopoly Politics projections for 2002
and 2004 as of April 29, 2004. Without a major partisan surge for one
party, expect the 2004 elections to be even less competitive. Also,
note the increase from 2002 to 2004 in the number of projected
landslides victories.
2002 and 2004 Monopoly Politics Projections
|
Number of Projections |
| Range |
2002 |
2004 |
| Landslide (>=20% margin) |
196 |
211 |
| Comfortable (>=10) |
101 |
107 |
| Tight (<10% margin) |
38 |
33 |
| Total Projection |
335 |
351 |
Competitive |
83 |
70 |
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Vulnerable
|
17 |
14 |
|
Total No Projection
|
100 |
84 |
We downloaded a map of the 2002 House
election results from the New York Times website.
Finally, you can read a
glossary of terms
used in the Monopoly Politics 2004 projections, a User's Guide and a description of
the algorithm used.
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