Despite unprecedented attention on Virginia's November
1999 state legislative elections, the campaign funds being
raised from out-of-state and the elections' potential
significance, most eligible Virginians are unlikely to vote
for a simple reason. Most of them live in delegate districts
without a contest, and only one in ten live in districts with
any real chance of shifting parties.
The Center for Voting and Democracy, a
non-partisan organization that analyzes elections and
electoral reform, today released print and web
(www.fairvote.org/virginia) versions of a report on
Virginia elections. The district-by-district analysis
demonstrates that few Virginians will have any say in the
fight this year over whether Democrats will maintain a slim,
one-seat house majority or the Republicans will finish their
sweep of state government.
As detailed in the accompanying report
summary, the Center found that in elections to the Virginia
House of Delegates:
� Only 3% of races have resulted in a partisan
shift since 1991, and only 7 incumbents are likely to have any
viable opposition in 1999
� 61 out of 100 races have already been
decided, with an incumbent or open seat nominee facing no
competition from a major party
� Since the last redistricting in 1991, 299 of
400 races (75%) have been "landslide" wins, and 153 of 400
were not contested
"By waving a white flag in most districts in
such an important election, party leaders are admitting that
few districts can be competitive," commented Rob Richie, the
Center's executive director. "That means few Virginians have a
meaningful role to play in deciding who runs their government.
For all the increased campaign spending, the key to most
elections in the next decade will be the same as this year:
how legislators design district lines in
redistricting."
The Center will add 1999 results to
www.fairvote.org/virginia shortly after the elections.
For more information or to discuss the study with Center staff
or Virginia board member William Redpath, please call (301)
270-4616.
- 30 -
6930 Carroll Ave., Suite 901 Takoma Park,
MD 20912 (301) 270-4616 www.fairvote.org
Summary of Key Findings
in NO-CHOICE ELECTIONS IN VIRGINIA www.fairvote.org/virginia
� Only 3% of delegate races have resulted
in a partisan shift since 1991: In 300 delegate races
since 1991, only nine shifted party control. Five open
seat races resulted in party shifts, and only
four incumbents were defeated.
� Democrats gained only one seat in
1993-1997: In the whole 1993-1997 period, the Democrats
only gained one seat -- when they regained district 5 in 1995
after losing it in 1993. The Republicans picked up eight
seats, including their temporary gain in district
5.
� Only 7 incumbents are likely to face
viable opposition in 1999: Only eight seats could be
termed competitive in 1997, including only two held by
Republicans. Six incumbents in these districts -- Democrats in
districts 5, 14, 43 and 86 and Republicans in districts 35 and
96 -- are seeking re-election and face opposition. The
Democratic-held district 30 is an open seat this
year.
� Most open seats will not change partisan
control: There are six open seats in 1999, but most are
unlikely to change partisan control because the district leans
toward the party previously holding the seat. Only one of nine
open seats in 1997 resulted in a party change.
� 61 of 100 races are already decided, with
no competition from a major
party: Democrats have fielded 66
candidates for 100 seats, while Republicans have fielded 72
candidates. Incumbent Lacey Putney is the only viable
independent candidate. In 1997, 61 seats also were won without
major party competition; 49 were completely
uncontested.
� A decade of non-competition: Since
the last redistricting in 1991, three in four seats (299 out
of 400) have been "landslide" wins of more than 20%, and one
in three races were not contested by one of the major
parties.
� More than half of state senate seats also
not contested in 1999: 23 out of 40 state senate seats are
not being contested by a major party in 1999.
A Lock On Elections In
Virginia __*Post-Election Analysis* ____Introduction ______Press Release ________1st District
� 25th District __________26th District � 50th District ____________51st
District � 75th District ______________76th
District � 100th District
For more information, contact: Eric Olson, Deputy
Director Rob
Richie, Executive Director The Center for Voting and
Democracy 6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 901 Takoma Park, MD
20912 (301)
270-4616 |