Virginia House of
Delegates Races � Pre-Election Analysis
Despite unprecedented attention on Virginia�s November 1999 state
legislative elections, the campaign funds being raised from
out-of-state and the election�s potential significance, most
eligible Virginians are unlikely to vote for a simple reason. Most
of them live in delegate districts without a contest, and only one
in ten live in districts with any real chance of shifting
parties.
The Center for Voting and Democracy is a non-partisan
organization that analyzes elections and electoral reform. The
Center has reviewed Virginia�s elections to the House of Delegates
over the past decade and has found revealing information about the
lack of real choices in Virginia�s elections. Below are some of our
findings; for details on each race, please go to the
district-by-district listings.
1997
Elections
In the 1997 elections, there were 48 Republicans, 51 Democrats,
and one independent elected to the Virginia House of Delegates.
During the term, one of those Democratic seats went to a Republican,
making the breakdown 49 Republicans, 50 Democrats, and one
independent
- 84 of 100 won
by landslide in 1997 (over 20% margin of victory)
-
49 of those 84 were completely unopposed
-
12 more had no major party opposition,
but
had a
contested election by an independent.
- 7 won
comfortably (by a 10- 20% margin)
- 9 -- only 9 --
were won by less than 10% of the vote and could be considered
vulnerable (and not all of those are necessarily vulnerable)
- There also were
9 open seats in 1997; in those 9 races, only 1 seat changed
parties (the 96th went from a Democrat to a
Republican). The other open seats in 1997 were:
35th, 37th, 48th,
58th, 71st, 76th,
79th and 86th.
The
1990s
- Throughout the
1990s (1991 � 1997), 75% of Virginia�s state legislative
elections have been landslides (299 out of 400 races).
- Only 3% of 300
races have resulted in a partisan shift in 1993-1997; see
below for a list of some potentially vulnerable districts for
1999.
- Throughout the
1990s (1991 � 1997), 38% of Virginia�s state legislative
elections have been uncontested (153 out of 400 races).
1999
Elections
This November's elections to the House of Delegates are
particularly critical. The immediate key question is whether the
Democrats will maintain their slim, one-seat house majority or
whether the Republicans will finish their sweep of state government.
Looking to the next decade, control of state and federal
redistricting hangs in the balance. As Sen. Chuck Robb said earlier
this fall (Washington Post, B1, October 1, 1999), "How we
vote this fall will determine who gets to draw the lines and
determine who gets elected to the General Assembly for the next 10
years."
Yet few Virginians in fact will play a meaningful role in
determining these elections: we see only six incumbents as likely to
face serious challenges, and only three open seats look particularly
competitive. These 1999 predictions are made solely on the basis of
past results, without looking at who the challengers are in 1999 and
how much money has been raised. Predictions can be safely made by
past performance because most districts have been carved to lean
heavily toward the major party currently controlling the seat. For
example:
- 61% of 1999
races have already been decided, with an incumbent or open
seat nominee facing no competition from a major party
candidate.
- There are only
6 potentially vulnerable incumbents (4 Democrats and 2
Republicans) based on the 1997 results and whether they have
opposition in
1999.
- There are six
open seats. Three of the four seats currently held by
Democrats bear watching.
Incumbent Races to
Watch:
- 5th
(1997 Democratic)
- 14th
(1997 Democratic)
- 35th
(1997 Republican)
- 43rd
(1997 Democratic)
- 86th
(1997 Democratic)
- 96th
(1997 Republican)
Based on the 1995 election data, these additional five districts
also could bear watching:
- 34th
(1995 Republican)
- 58th
(1995 Republican)
- 61st
(1995 Republican)
- 64th
(1995 Democratic)
- 94th
(1995 Democratic)
Open
Seat Races
- 7th
(Republican -- landslide wins, 1991-97)
- 15th
(Republican -- landslide wins, 1991-97)
- 30th
(Democratic -- narrow win, 1997)
- 44th
(Democratic -- easy win, 1997; closer wins, 1991-95)
- 91st
(Democratic -- easy win, 1997; close wins, 1993-95)
- 99th
(Democratic -- easy wins, 1991-1997)
The Washington Post has a page of Virginia
election links.
District by district
results: A Lock On Elections In
Virginia __*Post-Election Analysis* ____Introduction, October 1999 ______Press Release and Key
Findings ________1st District � 25th District __________26th District �
50th District ____________51st District � 75th District ______________76th District
� 100th District |