Virginia House of Delegates Post-Election Analysis
Amidst the Republican
Victory, Little Competition and Lopsided
Districts
Republicans completed their march on
Richmond in the 1990s, taking four new seats in the House of
Delegates and gaining a total of three to gain a 52-47 edge, with
one Republican-leaning independent. But as throughout the 1990s, the
excitement was limited to a handful of districts, which could easily
be identified long before the election. Despite the unprecedented
amount of money spent in these elections, the incumbent party
maintained 95% of seats, and 94% of races were won by comfortable
margins of at least 10%.
Seat Changes
Where seats changed hands was largely unsurprising. Among the 12
districts we identified as ones to watch � based solely on how close
the election was in 1997 and whether the seat was open � were four
of the five districts that changed parties in this election. (The
only seat change we missed was in the 81st District,
where Republican challenger Terrie Suit defeated a long-time
Democratic incumbent who had not been contested in the past two
elections.)
The open seat races were surprisingly competitive, given that
only one of nine open seats had changed hands in 1997. Three of six
open seats resulted in a partisan shift � two formerly Democratic
seats (the 30th and 91st) became Republican,
and one formerly Republican seat (the 7th) became
Democratic. The 7th district is the only district
held by Republicans after the 1991 elections that is now held by
Democrats.
92 of 94 incumbents were returned to office. Other than the
81st District, the only other House incumbent to lose was
Democrat Gladys Keating, (43rd District), who also had
faced a close race in 1997. She lost by 52-48%.
Lack of
Competition
Once again, there was very little competition in Delegate races
in 1999. There were:
- 78 landslide
wins (20% and over margin)
- 16 comfortable
wins (10-20%
margin)
- 6 close wins
under
10%
The 1999 numbers were
similar to those of 1997, when there were more landslides (84),
fewer comfortable wins (7), and more close wins (9).
Both 1997 and 1999 saw 61 races with either no opposition or no
major party opposition.
In 1999, there were 48 winners who were completely unopposed and
13 more who had opposition from only non-major party candidates. In
1997, 49 seats were completely unopposed and 12 more had no major
party opposition.
The six closest races in 1999 were divided evenly between
Republicans and Democrats. Republicans won narrow victories in the
43rd, 67th, and 81st, while
Democrats won in the 44th, 94th, and
99th. These districts will not necessarily be close again
in the November 2001 elections, as redistricting will take place
after the census provides new population numbers in April 2001. The
Republican party will have monopoly control of redistricting.
Women in the
Legislature
The number of women in the House of Delegates stayed constant at
only 15 out of 100 delegates. Tom Bolvin defeated Rep. Gladys
Keating in the 43rd District, Democrat Kristen Amundson
replaced a woman in the open seat election in the 44th
District and Republican Terrie Suit in the 81st District
was the only woman to gain a seat previously held by a man.
In Virginia�s state senate races, women increased their numbers
from seven to eight. Democrat Linda "Toddy" Puller won in an open
seat previously held by a man in District 36, while Democrat Leslie
Byrne beat incumbent Republican Jane Woods in District 34.
A Lock On Elections In
Virginia __*Post-Election
Analysis* ____Introduction, October 1999 ______Pre-Election Press
Release ________1st District � 25th District __________26th District �
50th District ____________51st District � 75th District ______________76th District
� 100th District
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