December Runoffs in San Francisco: A Historical
Perspective Revised December
2002
You can download this report as a
Microsoft Word document.
1.
Turnout usually declines in
December runoff elections
Turnout declined in 7 out of 9 December
runoffs elections over the past 27 years. Turnout declined by
51% in 2000 and by 44% in 2001.
|
Change
in |
% Change
in |
Year |
Turnout |
Turnout |
|
|
|
1975 |
-14,755 |
-6.8% |
1979 |
-8,528 |
-4.2% |
1983 |
No
runoff |
N/A |
1987 |
-40,022 |
-20.7% |
1991 |
+14,876 |
+7.4% |
1995 |
-18,409 |
-8.5% |
1999 |
+24,573 |
+12.1% |
2000 |
-132,4311 |
-50.5%1 |
2001 |
-58,757 |
-43.8% |
2002 |
-16,4572 |
-31.4%2 |
Source:
San Francisco Department of Elections
1These figures compare turnout in the 9
districts out of 11 that had runoffs. 2 These figures compare turnout
in the 2 districts out of 5 that had runoffs.
2. District elections for
supervisor lead to many runoffs
In 2002, 2 out of 4
contested races went to runoffs.
In 2000, 9 out of 10 contested
races went to runoffs.
In 1979, runoffs were used in supervisor
races. Six races took
place, and 5 of them were contested. All 5 contested Supervisor
races went to a runoff.
In 1977, 11 supervisor races took place. If runoffs had been used, 9
out of 10 contested races would have gone to a runoff.
3. In
27 years, the November frontrunner has won every election
for mayor, district attorney and sheriff, and 12 out of 16 supervisor
runoffs.
There have been 27 runoffs: 6 for mayor, 3 for
district attorney, 1 for sheriff, 1 for city attorney and 17 for
supervisor. The
frontrunner won 22 (81%) of them.
-
2002: Fiona M won
the District 4 runoff after leading
in November; Bevan Dufty won the District 8 runoff after trailing
in November.
-
2001: Dennis Herrera won city attorney
runoff in a record low turnout election after trailing Jim Lazarus
in November.
-
2000:
9 runoffs for supervisor; frontrunners in November won all
but 3 of them.
-
1999: Willie Brown and Terrence Hallinan
received the most votes in the November general election. Both were elected in the
December runoff.
-
1995:
Willie Brown and Terrence Hallinan received the most votes
in the November general election. Both were elected in the
December runoff.
-
1991:
Frank Jordan received more votes than Art Agnos in the
November general election and beat him in the December
runoff.
-
1987:
Art Agnos received more votes than John Molinari in the
November general election and December runoff.
-
1983: there was no runoff, either for mayor,
district attorney or Board of Supervisors.
-
1979: Dianne Feinstein received the most
votes for mayor in the November general election and December
runoff, as did Arlo Smith for district attorney and Michael
Hennessey for sheriff.
In addition, all five candidates for supervisor who
received the most votes in the November election won their runoff
elections.
-
1975: George Moscone received the most votes
for mayor in both the November general election and December
runoff. Runoffs were
not used for district attorney or Board of
Supervisors.
Since 1975, of 38 elections for mayor, DA,
sheriff and supervisor that could have gone to a runoff, the
frontrunner won 34 (89%) of then. Reversals only occurred in 4 (11%) of the 38
races. All 4 were supervisor races in 2000 and
2002, the first two year's off district since the 1970s. Of 29 contested
races for these offices, 26 (86%) went to runoffs.
4. Runoff elections can greatly
increase the costs of elections, rolling back the benefits of
campaign finance reform
According to the Final Report of the Elections
Task Force of San Francisco (May 1, 1995), under district
elections, successful candidates for supervisor spent an average of
$30,772 without runoff elections in 1977; successful candidates
spent $61,614 with runoff elections in 1979, an expenditure increase
of 100 percent.
In fact, candidates spent more money per voter under
district elections with runoffs than under citywide elections for
Board of Supervisors, $4.17 per voter (1979) compared to $3.15 per
voter (1994), even though there has been considerable inflation
since 1979.
5. Two-round runoffs can thwart
majority rule
This phenomenon occurs when multiple candidates
vie for a seat, and the vote total of the top two candidates in the
general election is less than 50%. In other words, a majority of
voters support candidates who do not make the runoff. Although this
has not happened recently in citywide races, it can and does happen
in district elections. It occurred in
2002 and in 2000, it
came within a few votes of happening in two of
the runoffs.
In 2002, Fiona Ma and Ron Dudum advanced to the runoff with a combined total
of 46.5%.
In 2000, the vote total for candidates advancing
to the runoffs was just slightly over 50% in two races. In District 3, Aaron Peskin
and Lawrence Wong combined for 50.7%, meaning 49.3% of voters
supported losing candidates.
In District 6, Chris Daly and Chris Dittenhafer combined for
50.2%, leaving 49.8% unrepresented in the runoff.
When district elections were used in
the 1970s, it occurred in 2 of the 5 contested supervisor races in
1979. In District 5,
Harry Britt and Terrence Hallinan advanced to the runoff election
with a total of only 49% of the vote. In District 7, Doris Ward
and Bob Gonzalez advanced with only 48%.
In 1977, if runoffs had been used, candidates in
two races � Harvey Milk vs. Terrence Hallinan and Dan White vs.
Leonard Heinz � would have advanced to the runoff with less than 50%
of the vote.
6. Runoffs elections are
expensive for taxpayers, voters and candidates
The December 1999 runoff election for mayor and
district attorney apparently cost $1.5 million, according to a March
14, 2001 memo to the Finance Committee. The December 2000 runoff
election apparently cost well over $1 million.
The act of voting, whether by taking time to go
to a polling place on Election Day or by filling out an absentee
ballot, costs voters time and money.
Candidates have to raise funds to pay for their
campaigns, and with the implementation of partial public financing,
taxpayers will be paying for the full costs of the runoff
campaigns.
###
Research conducted by the Center for Voting and
Democracy, www.fairvote.org, based on election results
and voter turnout data from the San Francisco Department of
Elections |