6 seats: 5R, 1D

Republicans maintained their 5-1 edge in seats in 1996 and 1998, but their projected performance dropped in several districts in 1996 -- in part due to the national trend of Democratic improvement in districts with large Latino populations. As predicted in our 1997 report, elections as a result grew more competitive in 1998. Three Republican seats could be vulnerable in 2000. 
 

1. OPEN [Matt Salmon, R, 1994]					Vulnerable
	['98: 65	'96: 60	'94: 56	'92: R 59]		R 53
2. Ed Pastor (D), 1990					Landslide
	'98: 68	'96: 65	'94: 62	'92: 66		D 65
3. Bob Stump (R), 1976					Landslide
	'98: 67	'96: 67	'94: 70	'92: 62		R 58
4. John Shadegg (R), 1994					Landslide
	'98: 64	'96: 67	'94: 60	'92: 62		R 55
5. Jim Kolbe (R), 1984					Vulnerable
	'98: 52	'96: 69	'94: 68	'92: 67		R 52
6. J. D. Hayworth (R), 1994					Vulnerable
	'98: 53	'96: 48	'94: 55	'92: D 53		R 52