Seniority and Success

Incumbents in U.S. House Elections, 1996

  Winning Percentage, 1996
Year First Elected Sought Re- Election Win- Loss Untouch- ables* Under 55% ** 55% <60% *** 60% <65% 65% <70% 70% <80% 80% -100%
<1970 10 10-0 7 0 2 5 0 1 2
1970s 48 46-2 31 5 (2) 8 (4) 7 11 9 6
1980s 113 113-0 86 6 (2) 12 (1) 24 29 25 17
1990-92 121 115-6 78 12 (4) 23 (7) 24 21 21 14
1994 90 77-13 21 28 (3) 19 (1) 11 11 3 5
1996 - [74 Elected] - 43 (3) 15 (3) 10 2 2 2
TOTALS 382 361-21 223 94 (14) 79 (16) 81 74 61 46

* Untouchable is defined as winning last two elections by landslide (over 20% margin).

** In parentheses is the total still won by over 10%, the traditional dividing line between a marginal and non-marginal election. Note that one incumbent elected in 1990-2 won a landslide victory with less than 55%.

*** In parentheses is the total still won by over 20%, the traditional definition of a landslide win.

Revealing Facts

1. Entrenched incumbents: The win-loss record for incumbents first elected before 1990 was 169-2. 162 of these winners (96%) won by at least a margin of 10%. 141 of the 169 (83%) won by at least a landslide of 20%. Nearly two-thirds won by margins of two-to-one.

2. Competition and seniority: Of the 284 incumbents who won re-election and were first elected before 1994, 95% (269) won by at least 10%. In contrast, only 46% (34) of the 74 candidates first elected in 1996 won by more than 10%.

Produced in July 1997
by The Center for Voting and Democracy
PO Box 60037, Washington, DC 20039


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