Texas Democrats pulled off a great partisan coup in the 1992 redistricting, packing the eight Republican incumbents into heavily Republican districts -- all among the most conservative in the nation -- and winning 21 of the other 22 seats. But the state's generally poor Democratic performance has eroded their edge. The erosion may soone be reversed due to growing numbers of Latinos voting and voting Democratic, which makes 1998 a watershed election: the Republicans have a real chance to take the seat majority that their overall votes should earn. NOTE: Several House district lines were changed in early 1996, but with minor political impact.
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| PREDICTION: Uncontested Win (11: 5R, 6D) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996: | 1994: | 1992: | Clinton: | First: | |
| {3. Sam Johnson (R)}* | 73% | 91% (U) | 86% (U) | 32% (-17, up 5) | 1991 |
| {7. Bill Archer (R)}* | 81% | 100% (U) | 100% (U) | 28% (-21, 0) | 1970 |
| {8. Kevin Brady (R)} | 59% | - | - | 26% (-23, down 3) | 1996 |
| 10. Lloyd Doggett (D)* | 56% | 56% | - | 53% (+4, down 1) | 1994 |
| 11. Chet Edwards (D)* | 57% | 59% | 67% | 42% (-7, 0) | 1990 |
| 16. Silvestre Reyes (D) | 71% | - | - | 63% (+14, up 6) | 1996 |
| 18. Sheila Jackson Lee (D)* | 77% | 73% | - | 73% (+24, up 1) | 1994 |
| {21. Lamar Smith (R)}* | 76% | 90% (U) | 72% | 30% (-19, down 1) | 1980 |
| {26. Richard Armey (R)}* | 74% | 76% | 73% | 30% (-19, up 3) | 1984 |
28. Ciro Rodriguez (D) |
1997: 67% (special election) | 62% (+13, up 1) | 1997 | ||
| 29. Gene Green (D)* | 68% | 73% | 65% | 61% (+12, up 3) | 1992 |
| PREDICTION: Landslide Win (8: 5R, 3D) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996: | 1994: | 1992: | Clinton: | First: | |
| {6. Joe Barton (R)}* | 77% | 76% | 72% | 33% (-16, up 3) | 1984 |
| {13. Mac Thornberry (R)}* | 67% | 55% | - | 39% (-10, down 3) | 1994 |
| 15. Ruben Hinojosa (D) | 62% | - | - | 60% (+11, up 1) | 1996 |
| {19. Larry Combest (R)}* | 80% | 100% (U) | 77% | 26% (-23, down 3) | 1984 |
| {22. Tom DeLay (R)}* | 68% | 74% | 69% | 38% (-11, up 5) | 1984 |
| 23. Henry Bonilla (R)* | 62% | 63% | 59% | 50% (+1, up 2) | 1992 |
| 27. Solomon Ortiz (D)* | 65% | 59% | 56% | 57% (+8, up 3) | 1982 |
| 30. E. Bernice Johnson (D)* | 55% (L) | 73% | 72% | 69% (+20, up 1) | 1992 |
| PREDICTION: Comfortable Win (4: 2R, 2D) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996: | 1994: | 1992: | Clinton: | First: | |
| {4. Ralph Hall (D)}* | 64% | 59% | 58% | 35% (-14, up 1) | 1980 |
| 5. Pete Sessions (R) | 53% | - | - | 46% (-3, 0) | 1996 |
| 12. Kay Granger (R) | 58% | - | - | 46% (-3, up 2) | 1996 |
| 20. Open [Henry Gonzalez (D)] | [64%] | [63%] | [100% (U)] | 59% (+10, up 5) | [1960] |
| PREDICTION: Win (2: 2D) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996: | 1994: | 1992: | Clinton: | First: | |
| 24. Martin Frost (D)* | 56% | 53% | 60% | 53% (+4, up 6) | 1978 |
| 25. Ken Bentsen (D)* | 57% | 52% | - | 51% (+2, down 2) | 1994 |
| PREDICTION: Vulnerable (3: 1R, 2D) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996: | 1994: | 1992: | Clinton: | First: | |
| 2. Jim Turner (D) | 52% | - | - | 45% (-4, down 4) | 1996 |
| 9. Nick Lampson (D) | 53% | - | - | 48% (-1, down 2) | 1996 |
| 14. Ron Paul (R) | 51% | - | - | 42% (-7, down 1) | 1996 |
| PREDICTION: Underdog (2: 2D) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996: | 1994: | 1992: | Clinton: | First: | |
| 1. Max Sandlin (D) | 52% | - | - | 45% (-4, 0) | 1996 |
| {17. Charles Stenholm (D)}* | 52% | 54% | 66% | 39% (-10, down 1) | 1978 |
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