OHIO

(19 seats: 11R, 8D / Clinton 1996: 47%, -2, up 1)

Ohio Democrats picked up two of the four seats they lost in 1994. At least five races should be quite competitive in 1998, but most seats will continue to be one-sided. In an indication of great voter consistency, Democratic performance in Ohio changed more than 2% in only two districts -- and in those districts it changed by only 3%.


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PREDICTION: Landslide Winner (12: 8R, 4D)
  1996: 1994: 1992: Clinton: First:
{2. Rob Portman (R)}* 72% 77% - 34% (-15, down 1) 1993
3. Tony Hall (D)* 64% 59% 60% 50% (+1, up 2) 1978
{4. Michael Oxley (R)}* 65% 100% (U) 61% 37% (-12, 0) 1981
5. Paul Gilmor (R)* 61% 73% 100% (U) 42% (-7, up 2) 1988
7. David Hobson (R)* 68% 100% (U) 71% 41% (-8, up 2) 1990
{8. John Boehner (R)}* 70% 100% (U) 74% 37% (-12, up 2) 1990
9. Marcy Kaptur (D)* 77% 75% 74% 55% (+6, up 2) 1982
11. OPEN [Louis Stokes (D)*] [81%] [77%] [69%] 79% (+30, 0) [1968]
12. John Kasich (R)* 64% 67% 71% 47% (-2, 0) 1982
15. Deborah Pryce (R)* 71% 71% 44% 44% (-5, up 3) 1992
16. Ralph Regula (R)* 69% 75% 64% 43% (-6, 0) 1972
17. James Traficant (D)* 91% (U) 77% 84% 58% (+9, up 2) 1984


PREDICTION: Win (2: 1R, 1D)
  1996: 1994: 1992: Clinton: First:
14. Tom Sawyer (D)* 54% (C) 52% 68% 53% (+4, up 1) 1986
19. Steve LaTourette (R)* 55% 48% - 48% (-1, up 2) 1994


PREDICTION: Vulnerable (4: 2R, 2D)
  1996: 1994: 1992: Clinton: First:
1. Steve Chabot (R)* 54% (C) 56% - 50% (+1, up 1) 1994
10. Dennis Kucinich (D) 49% - - 51% (+2. up 3) 1996
13. Sherrod Brown (D)* 60% 49% 53% 46% (-3, up 2) 1992
18. Bob Ney (R)* 50% 54% - 47% (-2, down 2) 1994


PREDICTION: Underdog (1D)
  1996: 1994: 1992: Clinton: First:
6. Ted Strickland (D) 51% - - 45% (-4, 0) 1996

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