New York's closest House race in 1996 was still won by 9%. Big victories are common in New York -- a majority of its House seats were won by more than 40% in all five elections in 1982-1990. Nevertheless, the drop in Republican performance -- Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole in every House district -- could signal more competition for the state's Republicans. Only two of the state's five Republican untouchables seem sure to win by landslides in 1998, while all 9 untouchable Democrats should coast to landslide re-elections. Vito Fossella's easy win in the 1997 special election raises questions about whether Democrats will make gains in 1998.
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| PREDICTION: Landslide Win (16: 2R, 14D) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996: | 1994: | 1992: | Clinton: | First: | |
| 5. Gary Ackerman (D)* | 64% | 55% | 52% | 60% (+11, up 2) | 1983 |
| 6. Gregory Meeks (D)* | 1998: 58% (special election) | 85% (+36, up 4) | 1998 | ||
| 7. OPEN [Thomas Manton (D)*] | [71%] | [87%] | [57%] | 68% (+19, up 6) | [1984] |
| 8. Jerrold Nadler (D)* | 82% | 82% | 81% | 78% (+29, down 5) | 1992 |
| 9. OPEN [Safe D - Schumer] | [75%] | [73%] | [89%,U] | 66% (+17, up 1) | [1980] |
| 10. Ed Towns (D)* | 91% | 89% | 96% (U) | 90% (+41, up 1) | 1982 |
| 11. Major Owens (D)* | 92% | 89% | 94% (U) | 91% (+42, down 1) | 1982 |
| 12. Nydia Velazquez (D)* | 85% | 92% (U) | 77% | 84% (+35, up 10) | 1992 |
| 14. Carolyn Maloney (D)* | 72% | 64% | 50% | 70% (+21, down 5) | 1992 |
| 15. Charles Rangel (D)* | 91% | 97% (U) | 95% (U) | 89% (+40, down 2) | 1970 |
| 16. Jose Serrano (D)* | 96% | 96% (U) | 91% (U) | 93% (+44, up 6) | 1990 |
| 17. Eliot Engel (D)* | 85% | 78% | 80% | 85% (+36, up 4) | 1988 |
| 18. Nita Lowey (D)* | 64% | 57% | 56% | 58% (+9, up 2) | 1988 |
| 21. Michael McNulty (D)* | 66% | 67% | 63% | 57% (+8, up 3) | 1988 |
| 24. John McHugh (R)* | 71% | 79% | 61% | 49% (0, up 6) | 1992 |
| 31. Amo Houghton (R)* | 72% | 85% (U) | 71% | 44% (-5, up 4) | 1986 |
| PREDICTION: Comfortable Win (5: 2R, 3D) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996: | 1994: | 1992: | Clinton: | First: | |
| 4. Carolyn McCarthy (D) | 57% | - | - | 56% (+7, up 3) | 1996 |
| 23. Sherwood Boehlert (R)* | 64% | 71% | 64% | 46% (-3, up 3) | 1982 |
| 27. OPEN [Bill Paxon (R)*] | [60%] | [75%] | [64%] | 44% (-5, up 5) | [1989] |
| 28. Louise Slaughter (D)* | 57% | 57% | 55% | 55% (+6, up 5) | 1986 |
| 29. John LaFalce (D)* | 62% | 55% | 55% | 51% (+2, up 5) | 1974 |
| PREDICTION: Win (8: 7R, 1D) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996: | 1994: | 1992: | Clinton: | First: | |
| 2. Rick Lazio (R)* | 64% | 68% | 53% | 54% (+5, up 8) | 1992 |
| 13. Vito Fossella (R) | 1997: 61% (special election) | 51% (+2, up 6) | 1997 | ||
| 19. Sue Kelly (R)* | 46% | 52% | - | 48% (-1, 0) | 1994 |
| 20. Benjamin Gilman (R)* | 57% | 67% | 66% | 54% (+5, up 3) | 1972 |
| 22. OPEN [Gerald Solomon (R)*] | [60%] | [73%] | [65%] | 45% (-4, down 2) | [1978] |
| 25. James Walsh (R)* | 55% | 58% | 56% | 51% (+2, up 4) | 1988 |
| 26. Maurice Hinchey (D)* | 55% | 49% | 50% | 51% (+2, up 1) | 1992 |
| 30. Jack Quinn (R)* | 55% | 67% | 52% | 57% (+8, up 6) | 1992 |
| PREDICTION: Vulnerable (2: 2R) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996: | 1994: | 1992: | Clinton: | First: | |
| 1. Michael Forbes (R)* | 55% | 53% | - | 51% (+2, up 5) | 1994 |
| 3. Peter King (R)* | 55% | 59% | 50% | 53% (+4, up 3) | 1992 |
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