NEW JERSEY

(13 seats: 7R, 6D / Clinton 1996: 54%, +5, up 5)

Republicans held onto a majority of seats, but the sharp rise in Democratic performance in all 13 districts could indicate future shifts. Still, a majority of elections likely will be lopsided, which is no surprise given that the public's representative in the state's redistricting process openly sought to ensure that the parties won a roughly proportionate share of seats -- only possible in a winner-take-all system by creating non-competitive districts.
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PREDICTION: Uncontested Win (1: 1R)
  1996: 1994: 1992: Clinton: First:
3. James Saxton (R)* 64% 66% 59% 50% (+1, up 4) 1984

 

PREDICTION: Landslide Win (7: 2R, 5D)
  1996: 1994: 1992: Clinton: First:
1. Robert Andrews (D)* 76% 72% 67% 59% (+10, up 5) 1990
5. Marge Roukema (R)* 71% 74% 72% 43% (-6, up 3) 1980
6. Frank Pallone (D)* 61% 60% 52% 55% (+6, up 5) 1988
9. Steve Rothman (D) 56% - - 60% (+11, up 6) 1996
10. Donald Payne (D)* 84% 76% 78% 82% (+33, up 5) 1988
11. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R)* 66% 71% - 42% (-7, up 3) 1994
13. Robert Menendez (D)* 79% 71% 64% 71% (+22, up 11) 1992


PREDICTION: Comfortable Win (3: 2R, 1D)
  1996: 1994: 1992: Clinton: First:
2. Frank LoBiondo (R)* 60% 65% - 50% (+1, up 3) 1994
4. Christopher Smith (R)* 64% 68% 62% 51% (+2, up 5) 1980
8. Bill Pascrell Jr. (D) 51% - - 58% (+9, up 6) 1996


PREDICTION: Win (1: 1R)
  1996: 1994: 1992: Clinton: First:
7. Bob Franks (R)* 55% 60% 53% 51% (+2, up 4) 1992


PREDICTION: Vulnerable (1: 1R)
  1996: 1994: 1992: Clinton: First:
12. Michael Pappas (R) 50% - - 48% (-1, up 2) 1996

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