Democratic performance fell in every House district in 1996. Republicans were well-positioned to win three seats, but the state has new districts due to a voting rights suit. The explicit goal was to protect all incumbents -- which may well be successful, at least in 1998. With new districts, however, predictions are imprecise.
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| PREDICTION: Uncontested Win (2: 2R) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996: | 1994: | 1992: | Clinton: | First: | |
| {6. Howard Coble (R)}* | 73% | 100% (U) | 71% | 33% (-16, down 5) | 1984 |
| {10. Cass Ballenger (R)}* | 70% | 72% | 63% | 31% (-18, down 7) | 1986 |
| PREDICTION: Comfortable Win (6: 4R, 2D) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996: | 1994: | 1992: | Clinton: | First: | |
| 1. Eva Clayton (D)* | 66% | 61% | 67% | 64% (+15, down 3) | 1992 |
| {3. Walter Jones, Jr. (R)}* | 63% | 53% | - | 40% (-9, down 5) | 1994 |
| 4. David Price (D) | 54% (C) | - | - | 49% (0, down 4) | 1996 |
| 5. Richard Burr (R)* | 62% | 57% | - | 41% (-8, down 8) | 1994 |
| {9. Sue Myrick (R)}* | 63% | 65% | - | 38% (-11, down 1) | 1994 |
| 11. Charles Taylor (R)* | 58% | 60% | 55% | 43% (-6, down 6) | 1990 |
| PREDICTION: Win (3: 3D) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996: | 1994: | 1992: | Clinton: | First: | |
| 2. Bob Etheridge (D) | 53% | - | - | 42% (-7, down 4) | 1996 |
| 7. Mike McIntyre (D) | 53% | - | - | 44% (-5, down 6) | 1996 |
| 12. Melvin Watt (D)* | 71% | 66% | 70% | 70% (+21, down 2) | 1992 |
| PREDICTION: Vulnerable (1: 1D) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996: | 1994: | 1992: | Clinton: | First: | |
| 8. OPEN [Bill Hefner (D)*] | [55%] | [52%] | [59%] | 43% (-6, down 5) | [1974] |
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