California

California's entrenched incumbents had a very good year in 1996. All "untouchables" repeated their landslide wins. Nearly all represent districts that strongly match their party: of the 35 representatives predicted to win landslides in 1998, 32 represent districts where Clinton received at least 8% higher or lower than his average. Incumbent performance in these districts was very consistent in 1992-1996 despite national changes in House elections. The elections are progressively more competitive in districts where Clinton ran closer to his national average. Of the ten most competitive districts, seven are held by Democrats.

PREDICTION: Uncontested Win (9: 5R, 4D)
	1996:	1994:	1992:	Clinton:	First:
18. Gary Condit (D)*	66%	66%	85% (U)	46% (-3, down 1)	1988
{19. George Radanovich (R)}*	67%	57%	-	40% (-9, down 4)	1994
{21. Bill Thomas (R)}*	66%	68%	65%	34% (-15, down 4)	1978
25. Buck McKeon (R)*	62%	65%	52%	41% (-8, down 1)	1992
26. Howard Berman (D)*	66%	63%	61%	65% (+16, up 2)	1982
35. Maxine Waters (D)*	86%	78%	83%	84% (+35, 0)	1990
{48. Ron Packard (R)}*	66%	73%	61%	34% (-15, down 1)	1982
50. Bob Filner (D)*	62%	57%	57%	60% (+11, up 5)	1992
52. Duncan Hunter (R)*	65%	64%	53%	41% (-8, up 1)	1980

PREDICTION: Landslide Win (25: 9R, 16D)
	1996:	1994:	1992:	Clinton:	First:
{2. Wally Herger (R)}*	61%	64%	65%	36% (-13, down 6)	1986
{4. John Doolittle (R)}*	61%	61%	50%	38% (-11, down 2)	1990
5. Robert Matsui (D)*	70%	68%	69%	57% (+8, 0)	1978
6. Lynn Woolsley (D)*	62%	58%	65%	57% (+8, down 5)	1992
7. George Miller (D)*	72%	70%	70%	65% (+16 down 2)	1974
8. Nancy Pelosi (D)*	84%	82%	83%	74% (+25, down 8)	1986
9. Barbara Lee (D)	1998: 71% (Special Election)			75% (+26, down 10)	1998
12. Tom Lantos (D)*	72%	67%	69%	64% (+15, up 1)	1980
13. Pete Stark (D)*	65%	65%	60%	62% (+13, up 2)	1972
14. Anna Eshoo (D)*	65%	61%	57%	58% (+9, down 2)	1992
16. Zoe Lofgren (D)*	66%	65%	-	61% (+12, up 3)	1994
*23. Elton Gallegly (R)**	60%	66%	54%	45% (-4, up 1)	1986
28. David Dreier (R)*	61%	67%	58%	45% (-4, up 1)	1980
29. Henry Waxman (D)*	68%	68%	61%	66% (+17, down 6)	1974
30. Xavier Becerra (D)*	72%	66%	58%	71% (+22, up 2)	1992
31. Matthew Martinez (D)*	67%	59%	63%	65% (+16, up 7)	1982
32. Julian Dixon (D)*	82%	78%	87%	81% (+32, down 3)	1978
33. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)*	82%	81%	63%	80% (+31, up 11)	1992
34. Open [Torres (D)]	[68%]	[62%]	[61%]	64% (+15, up 7)	1982
37. Juanita Mill.-McDon. (D)*	85%	78% (special election)	-	81% (+32, up 1)	1995
{39. Ed Royce (R)}*	63%	66%	57%	41% (-8, up 1)	1992
{40. Jerry Lewis (R)}*	65%	71%	63%	38% (-11, down 3)	1978
{45. Dana Rohrabacher (R)}*	61%	69%	55%	38% (-11, 0)	1988
{47. Christopher Cox (R)}*	66%	72%	65%	36% (-13, down 1)	1988
{51. Duke Cunningham (R)}*	65%	67%	56%	38% (-11, 0)	1990

PREDICTION: Comfortable Win (6: 4R, 2D)
	1996:	1994:	1992:	Clinton:	First:
11. Richard Pombo (R)*	59% (L)	62%	48%	46% (-3, down 1)	1992
15. Tom Campbell (R)*	59% (L)	59% (special election)	-	53% (+4, up 1)	1996
17. Sam Farr (D)*	59% (L)	52%	-	55% (+6, down 4)	1993
20. Calvin Dooley (D)*	57%	57%	65%	52% (+3, down 1)	1990
41. Open [Kim (R)]*	[58%, L]	[62%]	[60%]	43% (-6, up 2)	1992
43. Ken Calvert (R)*	55%	55%	47%	43% (-6, down 1)	1992

PREDICTION: Vulnerable (9: 3R, 6D)
	1996:	1994:	1992:	Clinton:	First:
1. Frank Riggs (R)*	50%	53%	-	48% (-1, down 5)	1994
10. Ellen Tauscher (D)	49%	-	-	48% (-1, 0)	1996
22. Open [Walter Capps (D)]	[48%]	-	-	44% (-5, down 3)	[1996]
24. Brad Sherman (D)	49%	-	-	52% (+3, down 2)	1996
27. James Rogan (R)	50%	-	-	49% (0, down 1)	1996
36. Open [Harman (D)]	[53%]	[48%]	48%	47% (-2, 0)	[1992]
38. Steve Horn (R)*	53%	58%	49%	53% (+4, up 2)	1992
42. George Brown (D)*	50%	51%	51%	53% (+4, up 1)	1972
46. Loretta Sanchez (D)	47%	-	-	49% (0, up 6)	1996

PREDICTION: Underdog (1: 1D)
	1996:	1994:	1992:	Clinton:	First:
3. Open [Vic Fazio (D)]	[54% (C)]	[50%]	[51%]	45% (-4, down 2)	[1978]

CALIFORNIA

(52 seats: 23R, 29D / Clinton 1996: 51%, +2, down 1)