The following is a summary of the relative impact of campaign spending and district partisanship in open seats races and races where a challenger defeated an incumbent in the 1996 elections to the U.S. House. Note that only one of the 32 first-year Republicans was elected in a district where Clinton ran ahead of his national average, while 22 were elected in districts where Clinton ran 5% or more behind his average. In contrast, 16 of 42 first-year Democrats represent districts where Clinton ran behind his national average and only 19 of 44 were elected in districts where Clinton ran at least 5% ahead of his average. More first-year Democrats will need to be on defense in 1998. Even in these races, money often flowed to candidates expected to win, most noticeably in open seat races. In the 21 open seat races on either end of the spectrum, the candidate from the party matching the district - and the eventual winner -- received more money. In the middle districts, losing candidates spent more than the winner in more than one-third of their races. NOTE: The spending does not include any measure of soft money or independent expenditures. The term "$ >2" means that winners spent more money in two races in that particular category.
| Open Seat Races | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Clinton's 1996 Percentage in House Districts Relative to National Average |
||||||
| -9% or less (<41%) |
-5% to -8 (41-44%) |
-4% to 0% (45-49%) |
1% to 4% (50-3%) |
5% to 8% (54-57%) |
9% or more (>57%) |
|
| GOP (29 - $ >19) |
11 ($ >10) | 9 ($ >5) | 9 ($ >5) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DEM (24 - $ >21) |
0 | 2 ($ >2) | 4 ($ >3) | 4 ($ >3) | 4 ($ >2) | 10 ($>10) |
| Races Where Incumbents Defeated | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Clinton's 1996 Percentage in House Districts Relative to National Average |
||||||
| -9% or less (<41%) |
-5% to -8 (41-44%) |
-4% to 0% (45-49%) |
1% to 4% (50-3%) |
5% to 8% (54-57%) |
9% or more (>57%) |
|
| GOP (3 - $ >3) |
1 ($ > 1) | 1 ($ >1) | 0 | 1 ($ >1) | 0 | 0 |
| DEM (18 - $ >7) |
0 | 2 ($ >0) | 8 ($ >4) | 3 ($ >1) | 1 ($ >1) | 4 ($ >1) |
| Total Representatives First Elected in November 1996 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Clinton's 1996 Percentage in House Districts Relative to National Average |
||||||
| -9% or less (<41%) |
-5% to -8 (41-44%) |
-4% to 0% (45-49%) |
1% to 4% (50-3%) |
5% to 8% (54-57%) |
9% or more (>57%) |
|
| GOP (32 - $ >22) |
12 ($ > 11) | 10 ($ >6) | 9 ($ >5) | 1 ($ >1) | 0 | 0 |
| DEM (42 - $ >28) |
0 | 4 ($ >2) | 12 ($ >7) | 7 ($ >4) | 5 ($ >3) | 14 ($ >11) |
Produced in July 1997 by
The Center for Voting and Democracy
PO Box 60037 Washington, DC 20039