The following list of the 12 most vulnerable House seats was compiled in November 1997. If and when more incumbents choose to retire or run for another office, more seats may fall into this category. The information provided in the list is the same as provided in the full listing of representatives and is the basis for these predictions. There are 62 additional incumbents and open seat races (out of a total of 435 seats) categorized as vulnerable.
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Most Vulnerable Democratic Seats | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1996: | 1994: | 1992: | Clinton: | First: | |
CA 3. Open [Vic Fazio] | [54%] | [50%] | [51%] | 45% (-4, down 2) | [1978] |
CA 22. Open [Walter Capps (D)] | [48%] | - | - | 44% (-5, down 3) | [1996] |
CA 46. Loretta Sanchez (D) | 47% | - | - | 49% (0, up 6) | 1996 |
IL 19. Open [G. Poshard (D)] | [67%] | [58%] | [69%] | 47% (-2, down 6) | [1988] |
IN 9. Open [Lee Hamilton (D)] | [56%] | [52%] | [70%] | 44% (-5, down 3) | [1964] |
KY 6. Open [Scott Baesler (D)] | [56%] | [59%] | [61%] | 46% (-3, down 1) | [1992] |
OH 6. Ted Strickland (D) | 51% | - | - | 45% (-4, 0) | 1996 |
TX 1. Max Sandlin (D) | 52% | - | - | 45% (-4, 0) | 1996 |
TX 17. Charles Stenholm (D) | 52% | 54% | 66% | 39% (-10, down 1) | 1978 |
WI 8. Jay Johnson (D) | 52% | - | - | 46% (-3, up 5) | 1996 |
Most Vulnerable Republican Seats | |||||
KY 3. Anne Northrup (R) | 50% | - | - | 53% (+4, down 3) | 1996 |
NM 3. Bill Redmond (R) | 1997: 43% (special election) | 53% (+4, down 4) | 1997 | ||
WI 2. Open [Scott Klug (R)] | [57%] | [69%] | [63%] | 55% (+6, down 1) | [1990] |
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The following is a list of "untouchable" incumbents -- e.g., representatives who have won their last two elections by landslide (all but Florida's Bill Young in this list have won their last three elections by landslide). Although untouchable incumbents rarely lose -- none lost in 1996, and only three lost in 1994 -- the following are among those with the greatest chance of facing a more competitive election in 1998, although probably not a defeat. Most represent districts that favor the other party and are trending in that party's direction.
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1996: | 1994: | 1992: | Clinton: | First: | |
AZ 5. Jim Kolbe (R) | 69% | 68% | 67% | 47% (-2, down 1) | 1984 |
CA 41. Jay Kim (R) | 58% (L) | 62% | 60% | 43% (-6, up 2) | 1992 |
FL 10. C. W. (Bill) Young (R) | 67% | 100% (U) | 57% | 51% (+2, up 5) | 1970 |
MI 4. Dave Camp (R) | 65% | 73% | 63% | 47% (-2, up 3) | 1990 |
MO 4. Ike Skelton (D) | 64% | 68% | 70% | 41% (-8, down 2) | 1976 |
NJ 4. Christopher Smith (R) | 64% | 68% | 62% | 51% (+2, up 5) | 1980 |
NY 23. Sherwood Boehlert (R) | 64% | 71% | 64% | 46% (-3, up 3) | 1982 |
OR 4. Peter DeFazio (D) | 66% | 67% | 71% | 45% (-4, down 3) | 1986 |
PA 4. Ron Klink (D) | 64% | 64% | 79% | 47% (-2, down 7) | 1992 |
PA 11. Paul Kanjorski (D) | 68% | 67% | 67% | 48% (-1, 0) | 1984 |
PA 12. John Murtha (D) | 70% | 69% | 100% (U) | 46% (-3, down 7) | 1974 |
TN 8. John Tanner (D) | 67% | 64% | 84% (U) | 50% (+1, down 4) | 1988 |
WA 8. Jennifer Dunn (R) | 65% | 76% | 60% | 47% (-2, up 3) | 1992 |
WV 1. Alan Mollohan (D) | 100% (U) | 70% | 100% (U) | 49% (0, down 3) | 1982 |
WV 2. Bob Wise (D) | 69% | 63% | 71% | 49% (0, down 2) | 1982 |
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Produced in July 1997 by
The Center for Voting and Democracy
PO Box 60037 Washington, DC 20039