Demography as Destiny: Effect on Voting Behavior

House Members in "Opposition Party Districts"

The following chart lists the Republicans representing the most liberal districts and Democrats the most conservative districts -- Members who often vote as if in the other party. The names will be familiar to those who follow politics closely -- Republicans who voted against Newt Gingrich's re-election for Speaker are disproportionately represented, for example. The "conservative ratings" are from the National Journal for 1996. They indicate the representative's relative position among House members. A 65% rating means the representative voted more conservatively than 65% of House members. The three categories are: E (economic); S (social); and F (foreign policy.)

 
Top 16 Republicans in Pro-Clinton Districts
  Conservative Ratings
(Natl. Journal)
Rank CD Member Clinton '96 Member '96 Member '94 First Elected E: S: F:
1. AR 4 Jay Dickey 60% 64% 52% 1992 82% 72% 79%
2. (tie) NY 30 Jack Quinn 57% 55% 67% 1992 43% 48% 79%
  MD 8 Connie Morella 57% 61% 70% 1986 45% 12% 19%
4. (tie) WI 2 Scott Klug 55% 57% 69% 1990 48% 40% 31%
  FL 22 Clay Shaw 54% 62% 63% 1980 68% 54% 72%
  IA 1 Jim Leach 54% 53% 60% 1976 48% 35% 47%
  NY 2 Rick Lazio 54% 64% 68% 1992 56% 40% 60%
  NY 20 Benjamin Gilman 54% 57% 67% 1972 45% 29% 72%
9. (tie) CA 15 Tom Campbell 53% 59% - 1996 (spec.) 58% 28% 27%
  CA 38 Steve Horn 53% 53% 58% 1992 51% 35% 60%
  IA 2 Jim Nussle 53% 53% 56% 1990 82% 68% 55%
  LA 3 Billy Tauzin 53% 100% 76% 1980 64% 90% 79%
  KY 3 Anne Northrup 53% 50% - 1996 - - -
  NY 3 Peter King 53% 55% 59% 1992 55% 55% 62%
15. (tie) DE Michael Castle 52% 70% 71% 1992 49% 43% 46%
  LA 4 Jim McCrery 52% 71% 80% 1988 67% 77% 72%

Top 16 Democrats in Anti-Clinton Districts
  Conservative Ratings
(Natl. Journal)
Rank CD Member Clinton '96 Member '96 Member '94 First Elected E: S: F:
1. (tie) MS 5 Gene Taylor 35% 58% 60% 1989 45% 72% 50%
  TX 4 Ralph Hall 35% 64% 59% 1980 56% 77% 56%
3. TX 17 Charles Stenholm 39% 52% 54% 1978 43% 77% 41%
4. SD Earl Pomeroy 40% 55% 52% 1992 28% 34% 25%
5. MO 4 Ike Skelton 41% 64% 68% 1976 40% 52% 47%
6. (tie) NC 2 Bob Etheridge 42% 53% - 1996 - - -
  PA 6 Tim Holden 42% 59% 57% 1992 41% 52% 45%
  TX 11 Chet Edwards 52% 57% 59% 1990 36% 33% 46%
9. (tie) AL 5 Bud Cramer 43% 56% 50.5% 1990 47% 39% 48%
  IN 3 Tim Roemer 43% 58% 55% 1990 42% 56% 25%
  NC 8 Bill Hefner 43% 55% 52% 1974 39% 32% 37%
  VA 5 Virgil Goode 43% 61% - 1996 41% 37% 41%
13. (tie) CA 22 Walter Capps 44% 48% - 1996 - - -
  IN 9 Lee Hamilton 44% 56% 52% 1964 43% 58% 40%
  NC 7 Mike McIntyre 44% 53% - 1996 - - -
  VA 2 Owen Pickett 44% 65% 59% 1986 41% 38% 48%

Produced in July 1997 by
The Center for Voting and Democracy
PO Box 60037 Washington, DC 20039


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