This chart puts House districts into categories that -- going from left to right -- correspond to Bill Clinton's percentage of the vote in the district in 1996. Districts are grouped in six categories defined in relation to Clinton's national average of 49%, with districts on the left the most conservative districts and districts on the right the most liberal.
| Bill Clinton's Percentage in House Districts Relative to His National Average of 49.2% | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -9% or less (<41%) | -8% to -5% (41-44%) | -4% to 0% (45-49.2%) | 0% to 4% (49.2%-53%) | 5% to 8% (54-57%) | 9% or more (<57%) | |
All Seats |
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| Republican (227) | 78 | 57 | 55 | 29 | 7 | 1 |
| Democrat (207) | 4 | 12 | 40 | 33 | 21 | 97 |
| Independent (1) | - | - | - | - | 1 | - |
| Total (435) | 82 | 69 | 95 | 62 | 29 | 98 |
Incumbents |
||||||
| Republican (195) | 66 | 47 | 46 | 28 | 7 | 1 |
| Democrat (165) | 4 | 8 | 28 | 25 | 17 | 83 |
| Independent (1) | - | - | - | - | 1 | - |
| Total (361) | 70 | 55 | 74 | 53 | 25 | 84 |
"Untouchable" incumbents (repeat landslide wins) |
||||||
| Republican (126) | 53 | 35 | 22 | 13 | 3 | 0 |
| Democrat (97) | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 73 |
| Total (223) | 53 | 36 | 31 | 17 | 13 | 73 |
Open seats |
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| Republican (29) | 11 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Democrat (24) | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 10 |
| Total (53) | 11 | 11 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 10 |
Challenger against incumbent |
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| Republican (3) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Democrat (18) | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Total (21) | 1 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
Revealing Facts
1. Open Seats: Democrats lost 6 of 35 open seats in districts where Clinton won less than his national average (49%). They won all 18 open seats where Clinton won more than 49%.
2. One-Party Monopolies in "Non-Marginal" Seats: Republicans hold a 135-16 overall edge in House seats where Clinton received 44% or less (e.g., 5% behind his national average). 88 of these 135 Republicans are "untouchables" (repeat landslide winners), while only 1 of the 12 Democrats is an untouchable. The Republicans hold a 78-4 overall edge in districts where Clinton received 40% or less.
Democrats hold a 118-8 edge in House seats where Clinton received 54% or more (e.g., 5% or more ahead of his national average) -- 83 of these 118 Democrats are untouchables. Four Republicans represent districts where Clinton received over 54% -- only one is an untouchable (and just barely). Only Jay Dickey in Clinton's home state (Arkansas) represents a district where Clinton won over 57%.
3. Where Incumbents Lose: Only 3 Democratic incumbents lost in 1996; two in the more conservative districts. Republican incumbents lost 4 of 5 seats in liberal districts where Clinton won at least 58% of the vote. They lost 14 of 142 races where Clinton received between 41% and 57% and 0 of the 66 conservative districts where Clinton received less than 41%.
Produced in July 1997 by
The Center for Voting and Democracy