CVD Reports

Revised November 2002

Congressional Elections:  Past, Present and Future:
Welcome to the Center's "one-stop" guide to the electoral landscape of congressional elections in every state in the country: past, present and future! Each of the following reports provides important information about elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, with important lessons for all legislative elections at a local and state level.

(These reports can also be viewed using CVD's map. They require Netscape or Internet Explorer 4.0 and up for frames and JavaScript.)

Most recent reports

Monopoly Politics 2002

The 100% accuracyof more than 330 projections based only on past federal election results shows that most Americans suffer from "no choice" elections for Congress.

Monopoly Politics 2004

Using the exact same model that had a 99.9% accuracy from 1996-2002, we can project over 350 winners for the November 2004 elections, which shows that the next 4 congressional elections will probably be even less competitive than the least competive year from the last decade.

Dubious Democracy 2003

An extension of our Dubious Democracy series showing that 2002 was a grossly uncompetitive year.

Prior reports

Dubious Democracy 2001

An exhaustive collection of data from each state's congressional elections on competitiveness, voter turnout, partisan shares of the vote and seats, representation of women and minorities and other measures of electoral health from 1982 - 2000 presented in an attractive, easy-to-read format.

Monopoly Politics 2000

A state-by-state, district-by-district list of predictions and projected vote shares, along with information on election results in each congressional district from 1992 to 1998.

FUTURE I: "Mapping our Future: A Public Interest Guide to Redistricting"

A state-by-state guide to what governs redistricting in each state, with information on the statutes governing redistricting, litigation in the past decade, any reform efforts and legislation on redistricting and an analysis of the political landscape in each state.

FUTURE II: "Giving Voters a Choice: Multi-Seat District Maps"

Examples of multi-seat districts of three-to-five U.S. House members for every state, with an analysis of their likely political impact -- including the fact that every single voter in the nation likely would have representatives from both major parties and have a fighting chance to elect independent-minded candidates from inside or outside the major parties.

More CVD Reports

Public Interest Guide to Redistricting, State by State

Guide with results from the 2000 Elections.  Also available from CVD's map.  April 2001.

Computerizing a Cambridge Tradition

An Analysis of Cambridge's 1991 City Council Election Count Using a Computer Program.  A 1994 Report to the City of Cambridge that helped lead the city to computerize its ballot count of Choice Voting Elections

Academy Awards Nominations

Briefing explaining how proportional voting is used to pick the nominees for the Oscars.  February 2001.

Voter Turnout, 2000 Presidential Election

Data on voter turnout and votes cast in the 2000 presidential election.  February 2001.

Data on the Representation of Women and Racial Minorities

Includes data on race and gender of U.S. Representatives and Senators, Governors, and State Legislators.  January 2001.

Electoral College Landscape:  Clear Trends for 2004

Projections for 2004 Presidential Race show widening divisions.  November 2000.

Rule by the Non-Majority?  Plurality Winners in American Elections

We have assembled a great deal of information about the frequency and impact of plurality (non-majority, less than 50%) victories in American primary and general elections and the growing frequency of such victories.  October 2000.

Impact of U.S. Runoff Elections on Women and Minorities: An Analysis and Comparison with Instant Runoff Voting

Summarizes findings from a 1991 book, Runoffs Elections in the United States, by Charles Bullock and Loch Johnson. Reports Bullock and Johnson's findings on who wins runoff elections, how runoffs affect voter turnout and how runoffs affect the election of racial minorities and women, and also summarizes Bullock and Johnson's discussion of three legal challenges to runoffs on voting rights grounds. August 2000.

Louisiana's Non-Partisan Primary: Model or Travesty of Reform?

An analysis of one proposed alternative to "blanket primaries,"  the report examines the impact of Louisiana's non-partisan primary, discusses its applicability to other states and presents alternative solutions.  July 2000.

Democratic andRepublican Presidential Primary/Caucus Results

See the final allocation of delegates, state-by-state, and the difference between results in the states using proportional representation and those using winner-take-all for allocating their delegates.  June 2000.

A Quick Analysis of the London Mayor's Race

Caleb Kleppner analyzes the use of IRV in the May 4 mayoral race and the media coverage.  May 2000.

Proportional Representation Makes a Difference: London City Council Elections, May 4, 2000

Rob Richie explains how the use of PR prevented one party from gaining a majority on the city council with only 28% of the vote.  May 2000.

Lock on Elections in Virginia

Post-election analysis and district-by-district results of elections to the Virginia House of Delegates in the 1990s.  November 1999.

It's As Easy as 1-2-3: Final Report of the Vermont Commission to Study Instant Runoff Voting

A 38 page report with lots of useful general information, in addition to some analysis that is unique to Vermont's constitution and circumstances.  January 1999.

Itís As Easy as 1-2-3 Lite

A pared-down version of the Vermont Commission Report, which edits out the Vermont-specific portions.  January 1999.

Post-Mortem on a Successful IRV Campaign

Final report on successes, failures, strenghts and weaknesses of the successful campaign to enable IRV in Santa Clara County elections. January 1999.

The End of Majority Rule?

Report on the prospects for the 1996 presidential elections without IRV.  November 1995.

Voting and Democracy Report, 1995

A comprehensive look at voting system reform in the United States and abroad. The report also touches on term limits, campaign finance reform, voter registration, electoral administration and ballot access rules.

Voting and Democracy Report, 1993

The first edition of CVD's annual assessment of the state of democracy around the world and in the United States, emphasizing the voting system.