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CVD Reports
Revised November
2002
Congressional Elections: Past, Present
and Future:
Welcome
to the Center's "one-stop" guide to the electoral landscape of
congressional elections in every state in the country: past, present
and future! Each of the following reports provides important
information about elections to the U.S. House of Representatives,
with important lessons for all legislative elections at a local and
state level.
(These reports can also be viewed using CVD's map. They require
Netscape or Internet Explorer 4.0 and up for frames and
JavaScript.)
Most
recent reports
Monopoly Politics
2002
The 100%
accuracyof more than 330 projections based only on past federal election
results shows that most Americans suffer from "no choice"
elections for Congress.
Monopoly
Politics 2004
Using the exact same model that
had a 99.9% accuracy from 1996-2002, we can project over 350
winners for the November 2004 elections, which shows that the next
4 congressional elections will probably be even less competitive
than the least competive
year from the last decade.
Dubious
Democracy 2003
An extension of our Dubious Democracy series showing
that 2002 was a grossly uncompetitive year.
Prior reports
Dubious Democracy
2001
An exhaustive collection of data
from each state's congressional elections on competitiveness, voter
turnout, partisan shares of the vote and seats, representation of
women and minorities and other measures of electoral health from
1982 - 2000 presented in an attractive, easy-to-read format.
Monopoly Politics
2000
A state-by-state,
district-by-district list of predictions and projected vote shares,
along with information on election results in each congressional
district from 1992 to 1998.
FUTURE I: "Mapping
our Future: A Public Interest Guide to Redistricting"
A state-by-state guide to what
governs redistricting in each state, with information on the
statutes governing redistricting, litigation in the past decade, any
reform efforts and legislation on redistricting and an analysis of
the political landscape in each state.
FUTURE II:
"Giving Voters a Choice: Multi-Seat District Maps"
Examples of multi-seat districts of
three-to-five U.S. House members for every state, with an analysis
of their likely political impact -- including the fact that every
single voter in the nation likely would have representatives from
both major parties and have a fighting chance to elect
independent-minded candidates from inside or outside the major
parties.
More CVD
Reports
Public
Interest Guide to Redistricting, State by
State
Guide with results from the 2000 Elections. Also
available from CVD's
map. April 2001.
Computerizing a Cambridge Tradition
An Analysis of Cambridge's 1991 City Council
Election Count Using a Computer Program. A 1994 Report to
the City of Cambridge that helped lead the city to computerize its
ballot count of Choice Voting Elections
Academy
Awards Nominations
Briefing explaining how proportional voting is used to pick the
nominees for the Oscars. February 2001.
Voter Turnout, 2000 Presidential
Election
Data on voter
turnout and votes cast in the
2000 presidential election. February 2001.
Data on the Representation of Women
and Racial Minorities
Includes data on race and gender
of U.S. Representatives and Senators, Governors,
and State Legislators. January 2001.
Electoral College
Landscape: Clear Trends for 2004
Projections for 2004 Presidential Race
show widening divisions. November 2000.
Rule by the Non-Majority?
Plurality Winners in American Elections
We have assembled a great deal of information about the
frequency and impact of plurality (non-majority, less than 50%)
victories in American primary and general elections and the
growing frequency of such victories. October
2000.
Impact of U.S. Runoff Elections on
Women and Minorities: An Analysis and Comparison with Instant
Runoff Voting
Summarizes
findings from a 1991 book, Runoffs Elections in the United States,
by Charles Bullock and Loch Johnson. Reports Bullock and Johnson's
findings on who wins runoff elections, how runoffs affect voter
turnout and how runoffs affect the election of racial minorities
and women, and also summarizes Bullock and Johnson's discussion of
three legal challenges to runoffs on voting rights grounds. August
2000.
Louisiana's
Non-Partisan Primary: Model or Travesty of
Reform?
An analysis of one proposed alternative to
"blanket primaries," the report
examines the impact of Louisiana's non-partisan primary, discusses its
applicability to other states and presents alternative
solutions. July 2000.
Democratic
andRepublican
Presidential Primary/Caucus Results
See the final allocation of delegates,
state-by-state, and the difference between results in the states
using proportional representation and those using winner-take-all
for allocating their delegates. June
2000.
A Quick Analysis of the
London Mayor's Race
Caleb
Kleppner analyzes the use of IRV in the May 4 mayoral race and the
media coverage. May 2000.
Proportional
Representation Makes a Difference: London City Council Elections,
May 4, 2000
Rob Richie explains how the use of PR
prevented one party from gaining a majority on the city council
with only 28% of the vote. May 2000.
Lock on Elections in
Virginia
Post-election analysis and
district-by-district results of elections to the Virginia House of
Delegates in the 1990s. November 1999.
It's As Easy
as 1-2-3: Final Report of the Vermont Commission to Study Instant
Runoff Voting
A 38 page report
with lots of useful general information, in addition to some
analysis that is unique to Vermont's constitution and
circumstances. January 1999.
Itís As
Easy as 1-2-3 Lite
A pared-down version of the
Vermont Commission Report, which edits out the Vermont-specific portions.
January 1999.
Post-Mortem on a
Successful IRV Campaign
Final
report on successes, failures, strenghts and weaknesses of the
successful campaign to enable IRV in Santa Clara County elections.
January
1999.
The End of Majority Rule?
Report on the
prospects for the 1996 presidential elections without IRV.
November 1995.
Voting
and Democracy Report, 1995
A comprehensive look at voting system reform in the United
States and abroad. The report also touches on term limits,
campaign finance reform, voter registration, electoral
administration and ballot access rules.
Voting and Democracy Report, 1993
The first edition of CVD's annual
assessment of the state of democracy around the world and in the
United States, emphasizing the voting
system. |