National Redistricting News
July - September
2001
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Washington
Post : "Georgia Democrats May Gain Up to 4 Seats in
House." September 29, 2001
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Miami
Herald: "Web will allow open view of
state's redistricting." September 15, 2001
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National
Journal: "Off to the Races:
GOP's Redistricting Nerves." September 13, 2001
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The Hill: "Campaign 2002"
September 12, 2001
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Roll Call
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"All in the Family." September 10, 2001
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Roll Call
: "No Gold Rush in California." September 10,
2001
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CNSNews.com : "2002
Redistricting could spell trouble for Democrats." August 22, 2001
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Boston Globe
: "Hispanics poised
to gain clout in redistricting plan." August 18,
2001
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The New York Times: "As Redistricting
Unfolds, Parties Leverage Power to Get More of It." August 13,
2001
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Roll Call: "Between the Lines."
August 13, 2001
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Roll Call:
"Between the Lines." August 6, 2001
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Roll
Call: "Between
the Lines." July 30,
2001
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Roll Call:
"Between the Lines." July 23,
2001
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Roll Call:
"Between the Lines." July 16, 2001
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Michael McDonald, an assistant professor at the
University of Illinois-Springfield has compiled a redistricting
scorecard with updated
information about the redistricting progress in each
state.
More redistricting
news
Washington Post Georgia
Democrats May Gain Up to 4 Seats in House By Thomas B.
Edsall September 29, 2001
Georgia Democrats survived racial
fights, political bickering and regional conflicts to give final
approval yesterday to new congressional district lines that could
give the party as many as four new House seats in a crucial victory
in the national redistricting struggle.
The national redistricting --
which really involves a collection of state-by-state battles, most
involving marginal shifts of one seat -- is roughly one third
complete. For Democrats, Georgia offered the best chance to make a
substantial gain and, until yesterday, the prospects for success had
appeared slim as the state legislature approached a deadline of last
night.
"It matters not whether the road
is straight, but just that you get where you want to go," said John
Kirincich, executive director of the Georgia Democratic Party. Under
the plan approved by the legislature last night, the new lines could
result in one of "the single biggest pickups from redistricting that
any party has gotten," he said.
Ralph Reed, the Georgia Republican
chairman, acknowledged that the Democrats had produced a plan that
on paper looks like a major setback to the GOP, but, he argued,
incumbent Republican House members have shown an ability to win in
Democratic-leaning districts. "I've had members look me in the eye
and say, 'I will take the $750,000 to $850,000 I've raised, move to
a district across the state, and I'll win it,' " Reed said.
Because of population growth
recorded in the 2000 census, Georgia will pick up two new House
seats. Currently, the Georgia delegation has eight Republicans and
three Democrats. Democrats contend that the post-2002 delegation
could be 7 to 6 Democratic.
They note that in the new
configuration, seven of the 13 districts have Democratic voting
histories, or a "performance" of 55 percent or more, leaving only
six secure GOP seats.
The Georgia setup would balance
the solid Republican redistricting victory in Michigan, where a 9 to
7 Democratic majority delegation is likely to become a 9 to 6 GOP
majority. Michigan lost a seat because of its shrinking population.
California has already proven to
be a disappointment to many Democrats. Pressures to protect
incumbents and avoid a referendum challenge prompted Democrats in
control of the process to adopt a plan with only a one-seat
Democratic pickup, frustrating those who saw an opportunity to gain
as many as four seats because of the state's population growth.
With Republicans hoping to make
gains of two to three seats each in Pennsylvania, Ohio and perhaps
Florida -- where the GOP controls the legislature and the
governorship -- Georgia has been viewed by Democratic Party
strategists as an essential linchpin to their national plans.
Nationally, Republicans say they
are likely to pick up eight to 10 seats as a result of
redistricting, while Democrats contend that the outcome will be a
wash. Democrats note that the expected GOP gains in Ohio and
Pennsylvania will be countered by a collection of one-seat Democrat
pickups in North Carolina, New Mexico and Iowa, along with
Republican losses in Oklahoma and Indiana.
Republicans bolster their
prospective numbers by arguing that Democrats are likely to suffer
single-seat losses in Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin and, perhaps,
Utah as the lines are redrawn.
There are strong incentives for
Democrats and Republicans to exaggerate their prospects of
redistricting success: The party that is expected to control the
House after the 2002 elections will have a much easier time
recruiting strong candidates and raising money.
One of the most striking trends
has been a reduction in the number of competitive seats. Mark Gersh,
Washington director of the National Committee for an Effective
Congress, has estimated that out of the 137 districts that have been
redrawn, the number of marginal seats has fallen from 23 to 15.
If this pattern continues for all
435 districts, there will be a number of significant consequences.
The national outcome of House elections will be less reflective of
overall political trends, and the "coattail" effects in presidential
election years will be weakened because fewer seats will change
hands.
The state where there is a
potential for the largest partisan swing of seats is Texas, where
legislators failed to agree on a plan and the issue is before a
Democratic state judge in Austin.
Texas Democrats control the
delegation by a 17 to 13 ratio. They have proposed protecting all
incumbents and giving each party one of the two new districts that
must be added because of population growth -- one a Democratic
Hispanic seat in South Texas and the other a Republican seat north
of Dallas.
The GOP, however, contends that
the state has moved dramatically toward the Republican Party and has
proposed plans that would add from four to eight Republican seats,
while eliminating a number of seats held by white Democrats.
The state court is expected to
issue a ruling early next week, which will then go before a federal
court in East Texas for review.
In Georgia, both local and
national Democrats had been worried that this year could turn into a
repeat of the post-1990 census redistricting, when state House
Speaker Tom Murphy (D) was determined to use redistricting to defeat
then-Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.). The Murphy plan not only failed to
force Gingrich out of office, but it set the stage for the 1994
elections, when the Democratic losses in Georgia were among the most
severe in the nation.
This year, Murphy sought to end
the House career of Rep. Robert L. Barr Jr. (R-Ga.), undermining, in
the view of Democratic strategists there, the larger goal of
creating the maximum possible number of Democratic-leaning
districts. At one point, black Democrats in the House voted against
the 2001 Murphy plan.
The plan approved by the
legislature, according to Democrats, puts Republican Reps. John
Linder and Jack Kingston most at risk, while Barr and Rep. C. Saxby
Chambliss, another Republican viewed by Democrats as a threat in a
Democratic district, are both likely to choose to run in
Republican-leaning districts.
Chicago Tribune
The real remap losers: Voters
Editorial September 20, 2001
This past week, there have been
countless acts of heroism and self-sacrifice. There has been a
heartening rise--and who cares how brief it turns out to be--above
partisan politics in Washington.
But don't start looking for any
such phenomenon in Illinois' General Assembly.
Particularly not when it comes to
the legislative redistricting process, which this week predictably
had Democrats taking aim at vulnerable Republican incumbents like
crows on a telephone wire.
That's because politics is king in
Illinois, and Democrats happened to win a blind draw from a hat, a
trivial act that accords enormous power over what political
direction the state takes over the next 10 years. This week the
Democrats revealed their preferred redistricting plan, one they hope
escapes a pending Republican challenge in federal court.
That plan, of course, was
essentially drawn with Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan's
own set of crayons, with as many squiggly lines as he could get away
with legally to give Democrats as much legislative control as
possible over the next decade.
Their version threatens to loosen,
if not topple, the Republican stranglehold on the state Senate, and
to solidify Madigan's control over the House.
Republicans are crying that the
Democrats have rudely and unfairly forced dozens of GOP incumbents
to run against each other. Of course, that's exactly what
Republicans did to Democrats 10 years ago, when the Republicans drew
the map.
Whatever remotely idealistic
notion planners of this system had 30 years ago about how
representatives of different parties would have to work together to
avoid having remap decisions fall to pure luck of the draw grossly
underestimated this state's obsessive zeal for partisanship. The
remapping system has descended into winner-take-all, and the leaders
prefer it that way.
Why? Because compromise isn't in
their vocabulary. Because if they win by luck, they win big. They
can draw a map that protects their incumbents from competition and
gives them the chance to control the legislature for the next
decade--until the next census. If they lose, they can send out their
lawyers to try to defeat the map in court, and they can go down
saying they fought valiantly for the entire party faithful, instead
of having to decide which members of the flock to sacrifice at the
altar of bipartisanship.
The winners wear a predictable
that's-life gloat on their faces, while the losers hasten to
reinvent themselves as righteous defenders of good government as
they lambaste the system. Everyone winds up looking silly and voters
lose, because they rarely get genuine competition on the ballot.
Illinois politics grows
increasingly Balkanized with each decade. DuPage County Democrats
have virtually no voice in the legislature; Chicago Republicans are
a lonely bunch. With the Democratic map a handful of Republican
politicians will be forced into retirement. The real loss for
voters, though, is the opportunity to have genuine choices in
spirited elections for the legislature.
Common Sense: U.S.
Term Limits Weekly Radio Commentary #439 God Help
Them By Paul Jacob September 17, 2001
Every 10 years we take a census so that new political
lines can be drawn for Congress and the state legislatures. It's the
state legislatures that draw the lines, which are then ratified like
any other piece of legislation.
These lines really matter. As the Center for Voting
and Democracy tells us, "With increasingly sophisticated computer
software, polling results and demographic data, incumbent
legislators quite literally choose the voters before the voters have
a chance to choose them." The Center notes that as a result of
redistricting, "most voters are locked into one-party districts
where their only real choice at election time is to ratify the
incumbent or heir apparent."
I'm not shocked that state legislators tend to reward
themselves, at least those in the majority, with seats that are
designed to elect . . . well, them. But how do congressmen get such
nice treatment? After all, the congressmen don't draw the district
lines, not directly.
Good connections help. So does a little bribery. Take
California, where Michael Berman, brother of Congressman Howard
Berman, is the legislature's appointed line-drawing guru. U.S.
Representative Loretta Sanchez publicly admits that she and 30 of
the 32 Democratic congressional incumbents have already paid Berman
$20,000 each for what she calls an "incumbent-protection plan."
"Twenty thousand is nothing to keep your seat," says
Sanchez. "I spend $2 million every election. If my colleagues are
smart, they'll pay their $20,000, and Michael will draw the district
they can win in." She adds, "Those who have refused to pay? God help
them."
God help them? God help us.
This is Common Sense. I'm Paul Jacob.
Common Sense is U.S. Term Limits' weekly radio
commentary program by National Director Paul Jacob. Common Sense can
be heard on 277 radio stations in 49 states.
Miami Herald Web will allow
open view of state's redistricting By Phil Long
September 15, 2001
Redistricting, that most
political of all political decisions and one of those most often
associated in the public's mind with deals brokered in smoke-filled
back rooms, is about to be flashed across the Internet into the
light of public scrutiny.
Buy from the state a $20 software
package called FREDS 2000 -- short for Florida's Redistricting
System -- and you can look over the shoulders of public officials as
they create the maps and plans that will yield two new U.S. House
seats for Florida and redefine countless state legislative
districts. If you don't have a computer, public institutions such as
libraries and community colleges will have the program, officials
say.
Election redistricting is the
once-a-decade process in which elected officials in each state
redraw political boundaries based on the most recent Census figures.
Some legislative committee
meetings, which will be held before the Florida Legislature meets in
January to redraw the districts, will be webcast live. Some
legislative redistricting sessions will be televised. & Maps and
proposals will be posted on the state's website within two hours
after they are delivered to officials. Verbatim transcripts of
debates will be available on the Internet as well.
The FREDS software, which will
allow the public to see exactly the same thing legislators see as
they remap the districts, can be ordered on the state's website at
www.leg.state.fl.us/senateredistricting/
Though nothing will eliminate the
secret political deal-making that is inherent in redistricting,
experts say Florida's openness and access is unique in the nation.
"Florida is on the far edge of
the envelope, clearly far beyond other states in making the process
user-friendly and making available vast amounts of information to
the public,'' said Tim Storey, redistricting analyst for the
Denver-based National Conference of State Legislatures. "The
question is will people use it. It is still an esoteric process,
hard for regular people to understand.''
State officials are excited about
the project.
"This is a new phenomenon,'' said
state Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, the Miami Republican who chairs the
House congressional redistricting committee. "Because of the
Internet, the public will have more access today than the members of
the Legislature had 10 years ago.''
Though there were public hearings
a decade ago, Diaz-Balart said, "the plans were already drawn. It
was almost like a sham.''
The Process
Every 10 years states are
required to redistrict U.S. congressional and state legislative
seats. Florida has grown by more than three million people, giving
the state two new seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. And
the new population will result in the need to redraw most of the 40
state senate and 120 state legislative boundaries.
In the state Legislature,
Republicans hold 25 of the 40 Senate seats and 77 of the 120 House
seats. The GOP also controls 15 of the 23 U.S. House seats from
Florida, while Democrats occupy both U.S. Senate posts.
"A computer could easily draw the
districts,'' said Sharon Wright, associate professor of political
science and black studies at the University of Missouri. "But it's
not that simple . . . because of all the politics that goes into it.
And much of the politics revolves around race.''
There is always competition
between drawing perfectly aligned districts without regard to
communities of interest and accommodating the need for districts
that allow for minority representation, said Wright, a visiting
political science professor at the University of Florida.
More Participation
"The more you open the process
up, the more you allow participation, the better,'' said state Sen.
Dan Webster, a Winter Garden Republican and chair of the Senate
Redistricting Committee. ``If we plan to have an open process, it
will be an open process.''
In 1991, the Democrat-controlled
legislative leadership put the redistricting plan together, Webster
said, and ``no one knew about it until the last night. We voted the
final passage of that plan at 3:30 in the morning. We started debate
at 12:01. That's not what I consider an open process. Only a day or
two before we had even seen the plan.
``We have something that didn't
exist 10 years ago,'' Webster said. ``We have the Internet.
Everything is available on the Internet. You can get the software
for $20. You put it in the computer and watch it develop. You can
actually draw a plan and submit it.''
Democrats, though equally excited
about the technology, worry that high-tech aside, there are
fundamental issues that remain to be addressed.
There are not enough public
hearings around the state and not enough evening meetings for
working folks, said Sen. Nan Rich, D-Sunrise. & Even though 21
hearings are scheduled, added Sen. Ron Klein, D-Delray Beach, there
will be none in seven of the state's 23 congressional districts.
& Democratic Sen. Kendrick Meek of Miami-Dade said legislative
members need to hold at least nine more hearings.
National Journal Off to the
Races: GOP's Redistricting Nerves By Charlie Cook
September 13, 2001
While the political world has focused on the weakening
economy and the diminishing federal budget surplus, recent
developments in congressional redistricting are proving to be as
worrisome for Republicans. They underscore just how tough it will be
for the GOP to make significant gains through redistricting. In a
number of states, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Florida,
Republicans have a serious advantage in drawing favorable districts.
But others -- such as Georgia, California, Alabama, North Carolina,
Tennessee and Maryland -- have plans that help Democrats, and these
could offset almost all of those GOP gains.
State legislators in California, Alabama and Georgia
are close to completing congressional redistricting. In all three
states, Democrats control the line-drawing process. In the end, it
looks as if Democrats might be able to pick up four or five seats
from these states.
In California, Democrats in the state Senate drew an
incumbent-friendly map that helps shore up marginal Democrats as
well as Republicans. It gives Democrats one new seat, the 53rd
District, that is 56 percent Latino and has a 27-point Democratic
registration edge. Some Democrats in Washington have grumbled
privately that legislative leaders should have taken a more
aggressive approach to picking off GOP incumbents, to pick up as
many as four new seats. But California Democrats noted that they had
gained five seats since 1994 and had very few places to try to draw
out Republicans. Under the new lines, Republicans would have an
advantage in 20 seats, the same number they hold today.
In Georgia, Democrats have big plans for reversing
their fortunes -- in the Peach Tree State, they hold just three of
the state's 11 districts. Democrats in the state House and Senate
passed different versions of maps and are currently in conference
committee to hash out their differences. The new map is likely to
contain a Democratic-leaning, Augusta-based district and at least
one new, Democratic-leaning district that will encircle Atlanta.
Four GOP members -- Reps. Saxby Chambliss, Jack Kingston, Bob Barr
and John Linder -- could find themselves with heavily altered
districts. It looks as if Democrats will be able to pick up three
seats in the process.
And in Alabama, Democrats -- who as recently as 1992
held five of the state's seven seats -- are trying to improve their
deteriorating status in the congressional delegation (where today
they hold just two seats). Their biggest target is the 3rd District,
where GOP Rep. Bob Riley is retiring to run for governor. Some
Democrats also have proposed making the 2nd District in southern
Alabama more Democratic. Even one Republican insider noted that
Democrats could gain at least one seat in the process.
Whether Democrats get everything they want remains to
be seen, however. The redistricting process is very personal,
parochial and political, and great ideas on paper have a hard time
getting translated into real, workable districts.
In Georgia, friction between African-American
Democrats and the Democratic leadership already has made the road to
redistricting bumpy for the party. In the state Senate, Democratic
leaders were forced to pull their first redistricting draft from the
floor because African-American Democrats complained that the Senate
plan diluted black voting strength in the two new districts. And in
the Georgia House, a coalition of African-American Democrats and
Republican lawmakers combined to defeat the redistricting proposal
of Speaker Tom Murphy. But one Democratic insider in the state
argues that the African-American rift was overblown and is confident
that Democrats ultimately will pass a plan giving Democrats at least
three more seats in the delegation.
In Alabama, the House and Senate also are in the
process of reconciling two competing bills. If they do not agree to
a map, the courts will draw the new lines, thereby taking away any
Democratic advantage.
With redistricting still in its nascent stages in most
of the country (only nine states have completed congressional
line-drawing) and with the courts likely to play a significant role
in drawing many districts (Texas being the best example), it is
still premature to make any hard and fast predictions about what the
435 redrawn seats will look like in 2002. But it does look
increasingly likely that Republicans will make only slight gains,
perhaps one to four seats, through the redistricting process. And
ultimately, the economy and other, larger issues appear to be much
more critical to 2002 election dynamics than the shifting of
congressional lines.
The Hill
Campaign 2002 By Sarita Mary Chourey September
12, 2001
With the end of summer, so ends the first
round of redistricting. And while both parties took a few punches
from their state Legislatures � Republicans in Iowa and Indiana,
Democrats in Michigan and Pennsylvania � neither party was knocked
down for the count. With a few exceptions, the new congressional
district maps that have been signed into law have proved to be
benign. State lawmakers in Arkansas, Idaho, Missouri and Virginia �
none of which will gain or lose any seats in the 2002 elections �
left boundaries largely intact and protected most incumbents. Nevada
and Illinois lawmakers pleased neither party. They created a swing
district in Nevada, which gains a seat, and pitted a Democrat
against a Republican in Illinois, which loses a seat. In Texas, the
state that Republicans consider the mother lode, the split
Legislature sent competing plans to the courts. The GOP-leaning
Harris County Court is expected to take up the case, although the
maps will likely reach the federal bench in October. This month,
state lawmakers in Alabama, Arizona, California, Georgia, New Mexico
and South Carolina opened Round Two. North Carolina and Colorado are
next up, and Florida, Ohio, New York and other heavy hitters loom on
the horizon. But the real blows won�t be thrown until next year,
when the judges� gavels fall. Here are the states to watch this
month: Alabama A plan designed to add a third Democrat to
Alabama�s GOP-dominated delegation resulted in a standoff last week,
as members of the state House deadlocked over a plan that would make
the east-central 3rd District strongly Democratic. The seat is now
held by Republican Rep. Bob Riley, who is retiring at the end of
next year to run for governor. Tim Baer, executive director of the
Alabama Republican Party, cried foul, calling the House plan, which
was passed out of committee by a one-vote margin, �a very partisan
attempt by the Democratic majority� to squeeze out another Democrat.
Baer noted his party has already filed a lawsuit in Mobile to
determine whether the plan passes constitutional muster. A hearing
is set for Sept. 25. The state House plan, which would have
significantly upped the number of Democrats in the GOP-leaning 1st
and 3rd districts, differs in degree from the incumbent-approved
state Senate plan, which was passed last month. Although the
Yellowhammer State is neither losing nor gaining any seats, national
Democrats are relying on Alabama Democrats, who control the state
Legislature and Governor�s Mansion, to offset heavy Republican gains
in states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. Arizona With a
newly employed independent commission charged with redrawing the
congressional lines, the redistricting process in Arizona was
supposed to be less controversial this year. But even though the
theoretically nonpartisan group released a draft map that added a
new Democratic district and a new swing district to the state�s six
existing districts � all but one of which are represented by
Republicans � Democrats are grumbling. �We�re very disappointed,�
said Paul Hegarty, political director for the Arizona Democratic
Party. �If you look at the state�s registration � we should have had
at least three competitive districts, another two Democratic
districts and three Republican districts.� Hegarty cites the
commission�s decision to exclude voter registration as a factor in
drawing the lines. The commission will hold public hearings until
Sept. 15 and is scheduled to vote on the map at the end of the
month. But court action could stretch the process out until early
next year. California Republicans suffered their first
redistricting casualty last week when embattled Rep. Steve Horn of
Long Beach, Calif., whose district had been drawn out of existence,
opted to retire. Despite the loss, state and national Republicans
were overjoyed with the new congressional map, which left the
heavily Democratic state�s 20 Republican-leaning districts intact,
created a new Democratic district designed to elect a Latino, and
shored up a few swing districts, including those held by vulnerable
Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D) and scandalized Rep. Gary Condit (D). The
map is intended to lock in the gains Democrats made in 2000, when
they captured four House seats from the GOP. Still, Republicans were
relieved that Democrats did not attempt to further expand their
majority to counter the national redistricting advantage held by the
GOP. �From our point of view, 33-20 is fine,� state Senate Minority
Leader James L. Brulte (R) told reporters. Democrats are still
seeking Republican votes to gain the two-thirds majority they need
to put the plan in immediate effect, which would enable candidates
to get an early start campaigning.
Roll Call All in the Family:
Members Prepare to Face Each Other and New Voters in the Wake of
Redistricting By John Mercurio September 10, 2001
Rep. Steve Buyer (Ind.) never
relished the notion of facing fellow GOP Rep. Brian Kerns in a new
Democratic-drawn district. But Buyer's early vision of their matchup
probably didn't feature the pain of shin splints and herniated discs
and the image of dead possum. "Yesterday I ran 13 miles and today I
did 12. I have to be careful, though; today I developed shin
splints. I ran four marathons last year, and I herniated the disc in
my back," said Buyer, who spent his August recess running 225 miles
across the new 4th district, where state Democrats set him and Kerns
on a collision course for a 2002 primary. "I told my wife I've seen
23 dead possum so far. She said I need to get a life if I'm just out
there counting dead possum."
However, Buyer is clearly doing
more than counting roadkill. Like many other Members in the 10
states that lost House seats in reapportionment, this previously
safe incumbent is preparing for perhaps the biggest challenge of his
political life, a race against a colleague who arguably enjoys a
similar degree of political strength.
"The toughest possible campaign
for any incumbent is to run against another incumbent, so it would
be unwise not to prepare for that possibility," said a spokesman for
10-term Rep. Nancy Johnson (R-Conn.), who penned a fundraising
letter this year warning that she could face three-term Rep. Jim
Maloney (D) in a new district next year. The Buyer-Kerns race is the
most developed of the cycle's Member-versus-Member contests, as both
Republicans have stated their intentions to run in the new 4th
district. Races in nine other states are mired in varying stages of
the redistricting process, ranging from sheer speculation about the
shape of new districts in New York to Democrats mounting court
challenges of a map approved by Michigan's GOP-controlled
Legislature.
Eight states are losing one seat
apiece, meaning that at least two Members will likely be forced to
go up against each other. Those states are Connecticut, Mississippi,
Oklahoma, Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio. Two
states, New York and Pennsylvania, are losing two House seats, so at
least four House Members may possibly be paired in races.
Republicans control the
redistricting process in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio, meaning
Democrats will be targeted. Meanwhile, in Mississippi and Oklahoma,
Democrats dominate the process, so Republicans are sure to face
trouble.
The dynamics at play vary as
widely as the states. In Oklahoma, for example, Rep. Ernest Istook
(R) is openly battling a proposal floated by Gov. Frank Keating (R)
to throw him into the same district with House Republican Conference
Chairman J.C. Watts. Keating's plan would preserve the Tulsa-based
district in which his wife, Cathy, is the frontrunner to succeed
soon-to-depart Rep. Steve Largent (R).
And Members from states where
their own parties control the machinery of redistricting are not
immune. Five-term Rep. Marty Meehan (D-Mass.) spent much of the
summer fighting a move by fellow Democrats in Boston to throw him
into a primary with three-term Rep. John Tierney (D). The two may
have caught a break, though, since Gov. Jane Swift (R) recently
threatened to veto the plan that would force them to face-off.
Even before their new boundaries
will be formally put in place, however, some Members have already
signaled plans to leave the House.
Eleven-term Rep. William Coyne
(D-Pa.), facing the unwelcome prospect of a primary battle with
four-term Rep. Mike Doyle (D) in a Pittsburgh-area district drawn by
Republicans in Harrisburg, has opted to retire. A top target of GOP
remappers in Michigan, House Minority Whip David Bonior (D)
announced earlier this year that he would run for governor in 2002.
But Bonior, who would have been paired with Rep. Sander Levin (D),
has denied he was motivated by redistricting fears.
In Michigan, four House Democrats
are preparing for possible races against each other. The map
Democrats are challenging in federal court would throw Reps. John
Dingell and Lynn Rivers into the new 15th district and Reps. Jim
Barcia and Dale Kildee into the new 5th district, a Democratic
stronghold.
"This is the first step in a very
long dance," Rivers said in July before indicating she planned to
make no further comments about the possibility of running against
Dingell, the dean of the House.
Kildee said he definitely will
run for re-election in 2002, but Barcia said he'll wait to see if a
court challenge forces a change, so as to avoid facing Kildee.
Barcia said he is also considering a bid for a newly configured
state Senate seat.
"Virtually every day we sit down
on the House floor and talk about this," Kildee said recently. "We
laugh about it and we commiserate about it. But we're both adults,
and one thing for sure is that we'll remain friends before, during
and after whatever happens."
In Pennsylvania, Republicans are
openly boasting of their plans to pick up four House seats, in part
by throwing at least four Democratic Members into two seats. Reps.
Paul Kanjorski and Tim Holden may face each other, and the same goes
for Reps. Joseph Hoeffel and Bob Borski.
The map widely embraced by
Republicans in Harrisburg would merge Kanjorski's district, based in
Wilkes-Barre, with Holden's seat, now based in Schuylkill and Berks
counties. Holden's district would move south into the GOP areas of
Montgomery and Chester counties.
Confident that they can not only
force the two Members into a primary but can defeat whomever emerges
in the general election, Republicans are already referring to the
new Holden-Kanjorski district as the "Gerlach district" after state
Sen. James Gerlach, a Chester County Republican who intends to run.
Echoing the sentiments of several
Members, Borski cautioned that state legislators had not even begun
to formally draft a House map. "I've heard thousands of different
'final versions' of this, so until I see a plan, I don't want to
comment on a primary," he said.
Like several of these races,
however, a Borski-Hoeffel matchup would be colored by the two mens'
personal relationship. The two Democrats first met in 1977 when they
first won seats in the state House.
"Joe's a good Congressman and a
damn good public servant," Borski said. "We've been through a lot of
wars together. I just really care for Joe a great deal."
But would Borski still run
against Hoeffel? "Sure," he said, laughing. "What's that have to do
with anything? It's not either of us doing this, it's what someone
else is doing to us."
Another battle between friends
could shape up in Mississippi, this one across party lines.
Democrats who control the state Legislature plan to draw a new
central-Mississippi district for Reps. Ronnie Shows (D) and Chip
Pickering (R).
"In parts of Mississippi you're
either kin to a Shows or kin to a Pickering," Shows said.
"We're friends," said Pickering,
whose father is a longtime elected official and also a friend of
Shows. "I fully expect Ronnie to run a good race; he's a very good
politician. Should be a good campaign, fun to watch."
Although Democrats will draw the
lines in Mississippi, Pickering said "regional political forces"
will have a larger impact than "partisan" influences. Pickering also
enjoys a decided cash advantage, one of the largest of any Member
likely to face another incumbent next year. He had $936,000 on hand
as of June 30, while Shows reported just $189,000 in the bank.
For his part, however, Shows
appeared undaunted. "There's a saying down here that on election
night, we count votes, not money," he said. "We win by shaking hands
and doing constituent work."
Another Republican who appears
well positioned financially is three-term Rep. John Shimkus, who's
preparing to face two-term Rep. David Phelps (D) in a GOP-leaning
district in southern Illinois that was drawn by leaders of the
state's House delegation. Phelps, who was thrown into a GOP
stronghold with freshman Rep. Timothy Johnson (R), said in August
that he is more inclined to face Shimkus in a more competitive seat.
In terms of campaign cash,
Shimkus had $509,000 when June ended; Phelps had $288,000. The
Democrat, who is leading a lawsuit on behalf of southern Illinois
residents to protest the constitutionality of the new map, recently
was urged to run for lieutenant governor. Shimkus also appears to
benefit from the new boundaries. He currently represents roughly
two-thirds of the population of the new 19th district. President
Bush carried the district with 56 percent.
Still, Phelps' legal challenge
drew support recently from Sen. Dick Durbin (D), a former House
Member from southern Illinois. "I think this thing is awful," Durbin
told the St. Louis (Mo.) Post-Dispatch. "Ten years ago Southern
Illinois was devastated by a map drawn by the [Republican]
opposition and endorsed by a federal court. I didn't think it could
get any worse, but this map is worse."
Ten years ago a similar situation
arose, and the affected Member was another sophomore named Glenn
Poshard (D). Poshard also battled the remap in court but lost the
decision. He went on to beat fellow Democratic Rep. Terry Bruce in a
primary.
Shimkus and Phelps met after the
latter won his first House race in 1998. These days they
occasionally spend time together on flights and visit on most
Thursday mornings during Congressional prayer breakfasts.
"We enjoy that hour together;
it's good to stop and mingle in the ways we do there," Phelps said
of the Capitol Hill breakfasts. "I don't have any reason to not like
John. Socially he's a pleasant person, but most of our relationship
is on a professional basis."
However, Shimkus said their
cordial relations would play no role in a House race. "We're
friends, and no one likes to run against a friend or another
incumbent," he said. "But I think we're both mature enough to run on
our records and our visions. I don't plan to do anything
differently."
Roll Call No Gold Rush in
California: Democrats May Look for Gains Elsewhere By
John Mercurio and Ethan Wallison September 10, 2001
California Democrats have told Congressional campaign
officials that they expect no financing from the national party
because the state's new map ensures the safety of their incumbents,
according to Democratic leadership aides. Though party strategists
had earlier suggested Democrats could reap as many as four
additional seats from California, they are now expected to gain just
one seat from a new, Hispanic-majority district in Los Angeles.
& Nevertheless, the aides suggested the outcome of the state's
redistricting process should ease concerns about whether Democrats
can counter GOP gains elsewhere.
The safety of Democratic incumbents in the Golden
State, they argued, would provide a financial windfall that could be
used towards possible new pickups elsewhere in the country.
"I guarantee you that if this map is put in play, the
[Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee] will not spend one
dime in California," one senior leadership aide said, citing
discussions with California Reps. Howard Berman and Nancy Pelosi.
"They told us no Member is in any danger."
Asked whether Pelosi had given party campaign
officials the impression that no money would be needed in
California, an aide to the lawmaker said, "I think that's a pretty
reasonable interpretation of that map."
Still, the development appeared to take some
delegation insiders by surprise.
Berman chief of staff Gene Smith, for one, said she
had not heard anything about California's delegation swearing off
money from the party, and was skeptical.
"I think it's a little hard to envision," she said.
The delegation's executive director, Pam Barry, echoed
Smith. "It doesn't register with me," Barry said. "Everybody always
needs money. I don't know where that [talk] could have come from."
The remarks follow the unveiling of a new California
map last month that would bolster incumbents at the expense of
possible gains for the Democrats throughout the state.
The bipartisan map enhances the party strength of
virtually every House incumbent's district, including the ones
served by Republicans, while using the state's one new seat to
create a new Democratic district.
Legislators are drawing a new Hispanic-majority seat
in Los Angeles, a Democratic stronghold, and a GOP-leaning seat in
the Central Valley.
The only Member left in the lurch was Rep. Steve Horn
(R), whose Long Beach-based district was eliminated. Horn said last
week that he will retire in 2002.
"From a realistic, strategic perspective, we'll have
to spend a lot less to protect what we've got in California, which
is a lot more beneficial than if we had tried to draw in four new
House seats," one Democratic campaign official said. The DCCC spent
more than $12.5 million on California in the last cycle, a figure
bloated by the state's wildly expensive media markets and the
unusually large number of districts in play.
Democratic strategists say the money that was sunk
into California, which helped the party pick up four seats there in
2000, can now be shifted to similarly inviting prospects in states
such as Alabama, Georgia and North Carolina, where Democratic
control of the redistricting process has created new opportunities
for the party.
Republicans, meanwhile, noted that the map would cut
both ways. Because the map would protect incumbents from both
parties, the GOP would also have to spend far less in California
next year than they did in 2000.
"Democrats have been saying for months that California
would put them over the top. This has got to be a huge
disappointment for them," said Carl Forti, a spokesman for the
National Republican Congressional Committee. "We'll come back with
20 seats. We have to be happy with that. "When you look at the
numbers, our Members will be less vulnerable, which means we'll also
spend less money than we would have had to."
Not all Republicans are ebullient, however. Though
most say the map exceeds their expectations from a process
controlled by the Democrats, Rep. Bill Thomas (R-Calif.), a chief
GOP redistricting strategist, maintained that the "incumbent
protection" plan is "not in the public's interest."
"I have always said it is wrong for incumbents to draw
districts to protect incumbents of either party," Thomas said.
"There will be no opportunity for the voters in California to defeat
or elect a candidate of the party opposite to the one for which the
seat was drawn. That is wrong."
The Democratic-controlled legislature is expected to
approve the map this week, though some groups have threatened to
file suit to block it.
The following article is
about redistricting in California, but revealing about what likely
goes on behind the scenes in redistricting across the nation. Here
an incumbent talks openly about she and 29 of her fellow incumbents
paying $20,000 to the consultant developing a redistricting plan to
help insure a safe district for the coming decade. The consultant
was paid $2 million by the party for developing congressional and
state senate districts.
The Orange County
Register All bow to redistrict architect: Politics
Secretive, single-minded Michael Berman holds all the crucial cards.
By Hanh Quach and Dena Bunis August 26, 2001
Beverly Hills
Michael Berman starts his workday at about 8 a.m. He
often ends it around 6 -- the next morning.
He hardly eats or speaks. His aides are lucky to catch
a glimpse of him for more than a few minutes, or hear him utter a
word. His colleagues stick messages on the closed door of his
Wilshire Boulevard office but say he usually ignores them.
Berman is the central figure in the once-a-decade
ritual of redistricting -- redrawing political boundaries to reflect
changes in population.
He has been hired by the Democrats, who control the
process, at a salary of almost $2 million over 18 months.
His job is to draw California's congressional and
state Senate districts -- 93 maps in all.
That makes Berman -- younger brother of Rep. Howard
Berman, D-North Hollywood -- the most politically powerful man in
the state right now.
He can move the boundaries and squeeze a sitting
lawmaker out of his or her safely nested seat.
Or he can create a district so loaded with Democratic
voters that no Republican candidate has a chance.
Whatever he emerges with will likely form the basis of
the plan the Democratic-controlled Assembly and Senate will pass and
Democratic Gov. Gray Davis will sign this fall.
The map maker's task is not easy. Because the maps
must be able to pass muster in each legislative house, Berman must
understand the interests of each of the incumbents, whose political
futures are on the line.
The maps also must have the blessing of the U.S.
Department of Justice, which ensures that minority voting blocs
aren't diluted, and must be drawn with various interest groups in
mind to avoid court challenges.
Census creates some challenges
Berman must take all this into consideration as he
abides by the most basic rule of the game: Each political district
must have approximately the same number of residents. For the state
Senate, the number is 846,000; for the U.S. House of Representatives
it's 639,000.
The regional particulars are these: Democrat-heavy Los
Angeles lost people in the 2000 census relative to the rest of the
state. The Republican-strong Inland Empire and Central Valley,
meanwhile, gained. While adjusting boundaries to deal with that,
Berman also must figure out how to draw in the one new congressional
seat California picked up through the census; the state will now
have 53 of the 435 seats in Congress, the most of any state.
In the state Senate, which remains at a permanent 40
seats, Los Angeles Democrats are particularly worried because their
region has 11 senators for an area that now needs only 10.
That means either collapsing one
of the strongly Democratic seats in the city or forcing Democratic
lawmakers representing the fringes of greater Los Angeles to expand
their districts into the Republican-heavy Inland Empire to grab
enough people -- thereby eroding their strong voter bases.
A similar dynamic is at work with
Los Angeles County's 10 core congressional districts, which somehow
have to expand to pick up an average of 45,000 more constituents.
That is likely to affect Republican congressmen on the geographic
fringes, such as Reps. David Dreier of San Dimas, Gary Miller of
Diamond Bar, and Ed Royce of Fullerton.
Ethnic considerations are in play
as well. The Hispanic population is increasing, which poses a threat
to many non-Hispanic incumbents, including African-Americans. Berman
needs to draw boundaries that don't alienate either of these
traditionally Democratic groups.
Republicans are pretty much
spectators in this process, although Democrats need a few of them to
go along with their plans to get a referendum-proof two-thirds' vote
in each state chamber.
Many Republicans believe this
will be a pretty benign year, with Democrats already so dominant
that they can't do much to improve their position in the state.
But Republicans are still wary.
Rep. Darrell Issa of Vista, who represents one of the safest
Republican districts in the state, says he's been told by senior GOP
members that even after they think they've come to terms with
Berman, ``he'll make a few fence changes even between Republican
districts that are troublesome'' -- such as forcing incumbent
Republicans to run against each other.
Secretive
king of gerrymandering
For three decades -- four
redistricting cycles -- Berman has weighed in on California's
political boundaries.
So serious and secretive is
Berman about his task that no one who works for him is allowed to
disclose where his office is. The directory in the lobby of the
nondescript three-story office building does not list its reclusive
third-floor tenant. A note on the outer office door asks that
packages be dropped off at a room downstairs.
Berman likes toiling in near
solitude, his aides say, not that any of them could be of much help
anyway. His spacious personal office -- wallpapered with maps -- is
cluttered with papers arranged in a way only he understands.
His attitude: `` `Unless you're
on fire, don't bother me,' '' said Lynette Stevens, who works at
Berman's firm, Berman and D'Agostino (acronym: BAD). She pauses.
``And even if you were on fire, he'd walk right by you and he'd not
notice you.''
Berman, through an aide, declined
requests for an interview. One veteran political reporter said he
has been trying without success to get an interview with him for 10
years. But some of his friends and lawmakers this week agreed to
talk briefly about the enigmatic redistricting king.
They describe the chain-smoking,
rumpled Berman, 53, as ``brilliant,'' ``gruff but gentle,''
``fingernail-biting,'' ``demanding'' and ``focused.''
Berman thinks, dreams and
breathes the lines. He has read reams of census data months in
advance -- line after line of numbers. On many days, he sits in his
office alone, moving population numbers, voting-tendency analyses
and political boundaries around in his head.
``The computer is almost
irrelevant for Michael,'' said Bruce Cain, director of the Institute
of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley.
Democrats
pay for Incumbency protection
Berman became involved in
politics in high school. State Senate leader John Burton, D-San
Francisco, met him when Berman was a high school student organizing
the Young Democrats and toiling in the shadows of the more public
west Los Angeles politicians, including ringleader Rep. Henry
Waxman.
Berman used to drive Burton's
older brother, the renowned San Francisco Democratic Rep. Phillip
Burton, around Los Angeles during his visits there, and the two got
to know each other, according to a biography of the late
congressman.
In the 1980s, Berman -- the
numbers technician -- and Phil Burton -- the political salesman --
artfully redrew California's districts to increase Democratic
representation in Congress by six, to 28 Democrats vs. 17
Republicans, author John Jacobs wrote.
Now, Berman works for the younger
Burton.
``He understands the stuff. He
understands all the history of the districts,'' Burton said. The
Sacramento statehouse Democrats are paying Berman $1.36 million to
draw the state Senate districts. (Another Democratic consultant is
drawing the lines for the state's 80 Assembly districts, although
Berman has input on those as well.)
That worried congressional
Democrats, who fear some of the Sacramento lawmakers are angling for
their seats in Washington. So Rep. Loretta Sanchez of Santa Ana said
she and the rest of the Democratic congressional delegation went to
Berman and made their own deal. Thirty of the 32 Democratic
incumbents have paid Berman $20,000 each, she said, for an
``incumbent-protection plan.''
``Twenty thousand is nothing to
keep your seat,'' Sanchez said. ``I spend $2 million (campaigning)
every election. If my colleagues are smart, they'll pay their
$20,000, and Michael will draw the district they can win in. Those
who have refused to pay? God help them.''
(Register staff writer
Elizabeth Aguilera contributed to this story)
CNSNews.com 2002 Redistricting
could spell trouble for Democrats By John Rossomando August 22, 2001
Republican controlled
legislatures in large, politically important states such as
Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan have several Democratic
incumbents in their crosshairs as they finalize their 2002
congressional redistricting plans.
But while redistricting could
spell trouble for the Democrats in those states, the party might be
able to achieve gains in other states.
"In reapportionments, Republicans
have felt that the process favored them," said Dr. Robert Speel,
assistant professor of political science at Penn State Erie, and
2002 will not be an exception, he said.
Republicans have a distinct
advantage over Democrats in the redistricting process for the first
time since the 1950s because of GOP gains in state legislatures
since 1994, according to Michael Barone, author of "The Almanac of
American Politics."
"My estimate is that the
redistricting will have a distinct five to ten seat Republican
advantage," Barone said. "In states such Michigan, Pennsylvania, and
Ohio, they are clearly out to reduce the number of Democratic
seats."
Since those states will lose
congressional seats as a result of a drop in their census figures,
Republican lawmakers have the opportunity to redraw political
boundaries and force two Democratic incumbents to face off against
each other.
The GOP controlled state
legislature in Pennsylvania will also try to strengthen Republican
control of the state's congressional delegation by forcing several
Democrats to run against each other for re-election, and through the
creation of a new GOP dominated district.
"The Republicans have decided
that they are going to take the ten Democratic seats and carve them
up in a way to reduce [the Democratic] seats to the lowest number
that they possibly can," said Dr. Terry Madonna, professor of
political science. "Pennsylvania loses two [seats], so the obvious
thing is to get two seats of Democrats to run against each other,
and that they will do in the Pittsburgh area, where they will make
Bill Coyne run against Mike Doyle.
"In the eastern part of the
state, they are going to force representative Paul Kanjorski, who
represents the Wilkes-Barre area to run against Tim Holden who
represents Berks and Schuylkill count[ies]," he said.
Madonna also indicates that the
GOP legislature will force Democratic Reps. Joe Hoeffel and Robert
Borski to face off against each other following the elimination of a
suburban Philadelphia congressional district under the Republican
plan.
"They will create that [new]
district in a way that Borski [has] the clear advantage," Madonna
said. "The Republican hope is that Hoeffel will lose and Borski will
win."
He said Republicans are creating
a new congressional seat in Chester and Berks counties for
Republican State Sen. Jim Gerlach to run. According to Madonna, this
will leave the Republicans with an 11 to 8 lead in the state's
congressional delegation.
"Similar things are happening in
Michigan and Ohio, [where] Congressman David Bonior (D-Mich.), the
Democratic Whip in the leadership is now running for governor
[because of redistricting]," Barone said. Bonior would have had to
run against fellow Democratic incumbent Sander Levin if he chose to
run for re-election.
The Michigan Information and
Research Service (MIRS) has also reported that the redistricting
plan will force the dean of the U.S. House, Rep. John Dingell, to
run for re-election against Democratic Rep. Lynn Rivers and for
Democratic Reps. Bart Stupak and Jim Barcia to run against each
other.
According to Barone, Florida
Republicans aim to draw two new congressional districts in areas of
the state where the GOP is dominant, but he dismissed published
reports that Florida Democrats Robert Wexler and Peter Deutsch will
be forced to run against each other in the 2002 primary.
Democrats hope to marginalize
losses in these states by picking up congressional seats in other
states that are more favorable to them.
"The Democrats hope for at least
marginal gains perhaps in North Carolina and Georgia," Barone said.
"I think that they'll gain at least a seat in Georgia, which gained
two seats [in the reapportionment], and similarly with North
Carolina, and the Democrats will try to make that [seat] theirs."
"In California it looks like they
are going to have an incumbent protection plan with the Democrats
getting the sole new seat," he said.
But Greg Speed, spokesman for the
Democratic Party's Impact 2000, said Republicans are using
partisanship to try to fuel their political advantage next year.
"They (Republicans) are trying to
essentially draw an extremely partisan plan to maximize their gains,
which is difficult to do historically, when you have courts looking
at these plans," Speed said.
Speed indicates that Democrats
see hopes in Alabama, Arizona, California, and Colorado among others
that will offset any Democratic losses in states where Republicans
control the redistricting process. He also said Democrats would not
write off Florida.
Democrats believe they will
defend all of their Florida congressional seats, while making
inroads with the growing Hispanic population.
Boston Globe Hispanics
poised to gain clout in redistricting plan: Population surge may
lead to more members in House By
Wayne Washington August 18, 2001
Bolstered by their booming
numbers, Hispanics are poised to make historic gains in Congress
next year after the once-a-decade redistricting creates new
opportunities to increase their political clout.
Political analysts predict that
as many as 10 more Hispanics could be elected to the House of
Representatives in November 2002, possibly boosting the total to 29,
assuming that candidates from the ethnic group sweep the new
Hispanic-majority districts expected to be drawn.
Most of those new congressional
districts are likely to be in California, Texas, New Mexico, New
York, and Florida, states that have seen huge increases in their
Hispanic populations since 1990. Nationwide, the number of Hispanics
rose by 58 percent over the past decade.
The growth in the
Democrat-leaning population could increase chances that Democrats
will regain a House majority, if the party can pull off the tricky
maneuver of protecting its incumbents while creating new Hispanic
districts.
Republicans, meanwhile, are
pursuing a redistricting strategy of their own that could help
retain GOP control of the House. The party has been pushing for
creating heavily Hispanic districts that would leave surrounding
areas more receptive to Republican candidates.
Hispanics say they simply want to
make sure they get their due.
''We want greater representation
to better reflect our numbers,'' said Representative Charles
Gonzalez, a Texas Democrat who chairs a Congressional Hispanic
Caucus task force on the Census and civil rights.
The number of Hispanic House
members grew from 11 to 17 in 1993, following the last round of
redistricting and a 53 percent increase in the Hispanic population
from 1980 to 1990.
Using 2000 Census figures, state
legislatures across the country are redrawing congressional and
legislative district lines, a process that's as messy as a mudfight.
Parts or all of 16 states must have their plans preapproved by the
US Justice Department because of past denials of minority voting
rights. While they have no official standing in the process, both
political parties are monitoring it carefully, ready and willing to
fund lawsuits to challenge unfavorable plans.
Democrats have set aside $13
million for the party's redistricting operation. Republicans, who
would not reveal the budget for their effort, are just as active and
have devoted a chunk of the Republican National Committee's Web site
to the issue.
Anyone wondering how high the
stakes are - or how difficult a challenge the Democrats face - need
look no further than Massachusetts, where House Speaker Thomas M.
Finneran has proposed a plan to create a new minority-majority
district.
Finneran's plan would unite
Hispanic communities in Marlborough and Framingham, but it would
wipe out the congressional district currently represented by
Representative Martin T. Meehan, a fellow Democrat from Lowell.
Republicans say Democrats face a
similar quandary throughout the country. They are trying to answer
Hispanic calls for greater representation while at the same time
protecting incumbents, including several who represent districts
where a majority of residents are Hispanic.
''The question is, what Democrat
is going to give up their seat for a Hispanic?'' said a Republican
strategist who asked not to be identified. ''There are still 435
seats. If someone's getting a seat at the table, who's losing
theirs?''
Lee Sigelman, a political science
professor at George Washington University, said redistricting has
often been used to preserve the power of incumbents, making it tough
for minority groups to elbow their way into the nation's
white-dominated political structure.
''The rules of the game haven't
been structured in their favor,'' Sigelman said.
The Voting Rights Act of 1965
mandates that minority voters be given an opportunity - where it's
possible - to send candidates of their choosing to Congress, but the
Supreme Court has also forbidden the use of race or ethnicity as the
primary factor for drawing district lines.
In a series of rulings during the
last decade, the court has struck down as unconstitutional a number
of oddly-shaped, majority-minority districts, including a district
in Houston that was reduced from 55 percent Hispanic to 45 percent.
So state legislatures, which draw
most congressional districts, face a challenge: create a district
that gives minority voters a chance to elect one of their own, don't
use race as the main factor in creating its boundaries, and make it
geographically compact.
In trying to uphold the interests
of both the party and an important constituency, Democratic Party
officials have found themselves at odds with Hispanic Democrats over
how to proceed.
Party leaders have resisted
Republican efforts in New Jersey and Virginia to ''pack'' a few
districts with Democratic-leaning minority voters, a move that tends
to reduce the number of minorities in adjoining districts and
improve Republican prospects there. Instead, Democrats have favored
redrawing district lines so that significant but not overwhelming
percentages of minorities fall in several districts.
Spreading Hispanic voters around
increases the chances that a Democrat could win in those districts,
but Hispanic Democrats are wary of diluting the group's voting
strength.
''When you create the district,
we have to make sure it doesn't threaten what we already have,''
Gonzalez said.
Added Dale Oldham, an attorney
who handles redistricting cases for the Republican Party: ''It
becomes a question of whether you're advancing the minority
community or a particular political party.''
Terry McAuliffe, chairman of the
Democratic National Committee, would not say what percentage of
minorities the party regards as ideal in majority-minority
districts. ''We're not for any specific number,'' he said. ''We're
for fair and balanced districts. The more Hispanic seats we can get,
the better.''
Of 19 Hispanic members of
Congress, 16 are Democrats and 3 are Republicans.
But the Democratic leanings of
Hispanics have not stopped Republicans from targeting their
communities in search of political support.
As he campaigned last year,
George W. Bush sometimes spoke in Spanish to large Hispanic
audiences. He got 31 percent of the Hispanic vote, and his first
foreign trip as president was to see President Vicente Fox of
Mexico.
Bush has also supported a sort of
amnesty for Mexicans and possibly other immigrants who have entered
the country illegally.
Those moves were widely seen as
part of a broad Republican strategy to reach out to Hispanics and
broaden the party's base.
Republicans hope such policy
positions will eventually pay off, allowing them to pick off
Democrats who represent Hispanic-majority districts.
Representative Tom Davis, the
Virginia Republican who directs his party's House campaign
committee, predicted that the creation of Hispanic-majority
districts would not stop Republicans from making a gain he estimated
at eight to 10 seats.
''In my district, Bolivians vote
differently from Salvadorans, [who] vote different from Mexicans,
[who] vote different from Cubans,'' Davis said.
Associated Press Redistricting to
Help Shape Politics By Robert
Tanner August 13, 2001
Mayors in the Boston area are in
a fury. Politicians in Iowa and Indiana plan to move their homes
across the state. Several members of Congress face an end to their
Washington careers.
One of the most sweeping
political dramas of the year - redistricting - is quietly building
tension. Though it gets scant public attention, it will help shape
the nation's politics for a decade.
The most vehement battle is for
control of Congress, with the first results emerging now from
legislative backrooms on detailed street-by-street maps. The maps
themselves don't decide who wins and loses, but they can make an
election a safe bet by drawing a district so it is overrun with
voters of one party.
So far, with eight states done,
the fight is a draw. Democrats and Republicans each appear likely to
lose a seat in the Midwest and a new seat in Nevada is engineered as
a toss-up.
The big battles, however, await
in Texas and California. Strategists agree they could determine if
either party picks up congressional seats from redistricting, and,
potentially, control of the U.S. House.
"This is an inside-politics kind
of enterprise. Very few people understand it, very few people pay
attention to it. But in terms of who controls Congress, it's huge,''
said T.J. Rooney, a state representative in Pennsylvania. Maps are
drawn by state legislators in all but a handful of states.
In Pennsylvania, as in Michigan
and Ohio, Republicans in control of state government are vowing to
oust five Democratic members of the U.S. House, adding to the GOP's
12-seat margin in the House.
In the end, Republicans say
they'll gain eight to 12 seats from redistricting. Democrats counter
that they'll make small gains in enough states to leave
redistricting a wash. The Democratic plan is to then take back
Congress in 2002 because of what they hope will be voter backlash
against the Bush presidency.
Besides Congress, redistricting
changes the political geography for state legislatures, county
commissions, city councils and more. It comes every 10 years, after
the Census, with new political districts drawn to reflect
demographic changes and to give each electoral district roughly the
same population.
The details might be eye-glazing,
but for politicians, this is life or death. Already, there have been
examples of how personal redistricting fights can get:
In Oklahoma, Republican Gov.
Frank Keating proposed a remap that pits two fellow GOP congressmen
against each other and leaves the state's lone Democrat mostly
untouched. Who benefits? Candidate Cathy Keating - the governor's
wife, running for an open seat. Keating's allies have denied the
governor is trying to help his spouse.
In Oregon, Democrats in the state
House boycotted the capitol for five days in an effort to stop a
GOP-backed plan. Upset Republicans hired people to deliver summons
ordering them back. None of the lawmakers could be found.
A city alderman in St. Louis
refused to give up the floor in a filibuster, opposing a city
redistricting map that she said would damage black representation.
Denied a bathroom break, aides handed her a wastebasket and held a
tablecloth around her; police cited her for urinating in public.
"What I did behind that tablecloth is my business,'' Alderman Irene
Smith said, successfully blocking the vote.
In Massachusetts, an intra-party
fight could see Boston-area districts sliced and diced, angering
local mayors. New maps that threw together incumbents in Iowa and
Indiana spurred congressmen in each state to leave their hometowns
for more winnable districts. In New York, three members of Congress
hired lobbyists to protect their seats.
Many maps will go to court and
won't be settled until long past 2002. Forty-three states must
redraw congressional lines; the rest have only one district. Eight
states have final maps.
In Indiana, where slow population
growth means the state will lose one district, the GOP is likely to
lose a seat as two Republicans, Brian Kerns and Steve Buyer, were
placed in the same district.
In Illinois, also losing a seat,
Democrats are likely on the losing end, as Democratic Rep. David
Phelps was redrawn into a Republican-leaning district with an
incumbent, GOP Rep. Tim Johnson.
And in Nevada, which gained a
House seat because of population growth, the new district is evenly
split Democrats to Republicans.
The jackpot states will be
decided this fall: Texas, where Republicans say they'll gain between
four and eight seats; California, where Democrats say they can gain
up to three.
Last month in Michigan, the
GOP-controlled legislature produced a map that would reverse the 9-7
Democratic control of the congressional delegation to 9-6
Republican. GOP Gov. John Engler is all but certain to approve.
That spurred 24-year Rep. David
Bonior, thrown into a district with a fellow Democrat, to run for
governor, acknowledging that "Republicans have made the decision to
shut the door on my career in Congress.''
Rep. John Dingell, the nation's
longest-serving House member, saw another Democrat, Lynn Rivers, put
into his district.
"We're confronting a vicious,
hateful Republican partisan gerrymander,'' said Dingell, first
elected in 1955. "The motivations of my Republican friends are ...
steal as many votes as they can get, by any means, fair or foul.''
The GOP contends the maps reflect
a state that has become more Republican.
The same argument is heard in
Texas, which gains two seats. "If they're fair, they're going to
give Republicans a majority,'' said Susan Weddington, state GOP
chairwoman. Legislative gridlock, however, sent the maps to the
courts.
California, too, is an unknown.
GOP analysts say the delegation is too Democrat-heavy already - the
Democrats hold a 32-20 edge. But Rep. Martin Frost, a Texas Democrat
overseeing redistricting, thinks there's room for more
representatives from his party.
Congressional redistricting sits
high on both parties' agendas, said GOP Rep. Tom Davis of Virginia,
who is working with state leaders to help draft maps and craft legal
challenges. He won't talk money.
Democrats promise to spend $13
million, Frost said: "Both parties are deadly serious about this and
both parties are working very hard.''
On the Net: Informal
redistricting scorecard by University of Illinois political science
Professor Michael McDonald: http://ilsc.uis.edu/mcdonald/redistricting-scorecard.htm
Associated Press Politicans Wade
Into Redistricting: Battle for Congress Rages State by State By Robert Tanner August 13, 2001
Mayors in the Boston area are in a fury.
Politicians in Iowa and Indiana plan to move their homes across the
state. Several members of Congress face an end to their Washington
careers.
One of the most sweeping
political dramas of the year - redistricting - is quietly building
tension. Though it gets scant public attention, it will help shape
the nation's politics for a decade.
The most vehement battle is for
control of Congress, with the first results emerging now from
legislative backrooms on detailed street-by-street maps. The maps
themselves don't decide who wins and loses, but they can make an
election a safe bet by drawing a district so it is overrun with
voters of one party.
So far, with eight states done,
the fight is a draw. Democrats and Republicans each appear likely to
lose a seat in the Midwest and a new seat in Nevada is engineered as
a toss-up.
The big battles, however, await
in Texas and California. Strategists agree they could determine if
either party picks up congressional seats from redistricting, and,
potentially, control of the U.S. House.
"This is an inside-politics kind
of enterprise. Very few people understand it, very few people pay
attention to it. But in terms of who controls Congress, it's huge,''
said T.J. Rooney, a state representative in Pennsylvania. Maps are
drawn by state legislators in all but a handful of states.
In Pennsylvania, as in Michigan
and Ohio, Republicans in control of state government are vowing to
oust five Democratic members of the U.S. House, adding to the GOP's
12-seat margin in the House.
In the end, Republicans say
they'll gain eight to 12 seats from redistricting. Democrats counter
that they'll make small gains in enough states to leave
redistricting a wash. The Democratic plan is to then take back
Congress in 2002 because of what they hope will be voter backlash
against the Bush presidency.
Besides Congress, redistricting
changes the political geography for state legislatures, county
commissions, city councils and more. It comes every 10 years, after
the Census, with new political districts drawn to reflect
demographic changes and to give each electoral district roughly the
same population.
The details might be eye-glazing,
but for politicians, this is life or death. Already, there have been
examples of how personal redistricting fights can get:
In Oklahoma, Republican Gov.
Frank Keating proposed a remap that pits two fellow GOP congressmen
against each other and leaves the state's lone Democrat mostly
untouched. Who benefits? Candidate Cathy Keating - the governor's
wife, running for an open seat. Keating's allies have denied the
governor is trying to help his spouse.
In Oregon, Democrats in the state
House boycotted the capitol for five days in an effort to stop a
GOP-backed plan. Upset Republicans hired people to deliver summons
ordering them back. None of the lawmakers could be found.
A city alderman in St. Louis
refused to give up the floor in a filibuster, opposing a city
redistricting map that she said would damage black representation.
Denied a bathroom break, aides handed her a wastebasket and held a
tablecloth around her; police cited her for urinating in public.
"What I did behind that tablecloth is my business,'' Alderman Irene
Smith said, successfully blocking the vote.
In Massachusetts, an intra-party
fight could see Boston-area districts sliced and diced, angering
local mayors. New maps that threw together incumbents in Iowa and
Indiana spurred congressmen in each state to leave their hometowns
for more winnable districts. In New York, three members of Congress
hired lobbyists to protect their seats.
Many maps will go to court and
won't be settled until long past 2002.
Forty-three states must redraw
congressional lines; the rest have only one district. Eight states
have final maps.
In Indiana, where slow population
growth means the state will lose one district, the GOP is likely to
lose a seat as two Republicans, Brian Kerns and Steve Buyer, were
placed in the same district.
In Illinois, also losing a seat,
Democrats are likely on the losing end, as Democratic Rep. David
Phelps was redrawn into a Republican-leaning district with an
incumbent, GOP Rep. Tim Johnson.
And in Nevada, which gained a
House seat because of population growth, the new district is evenly
split Democrats to Republicans.
The jackpot states will be
decided this fall: Texas, where Republicans say they'll gain between
four and eight seats; California, where Democrats say they can gain
up to three.
Last month in Michigan, the
GOP-controlled legislature produced a map that would reverse the 9-7
Democratic control of the congressional delegation to 9-6
Republican. GOP Gov. John Engler is all but certain to approve.
That spurred 24-year Rep. David
Bonior, thrown into a district with a fellow Democrat, to run for
governor, acknowledging that "Republicans have made the decision to
shut the door on my career in Congress.''
Rep. John Dingell, the nation's
longest-serving House member, saw another Democrat, Lynn Rivers, put
into his district. "We're confronting a vicious, hateful Republican
partisan gerrymander,'' said Dingell, first elected in 1955. "The
motivations of my Republican friends are ... steal as many votes as
they can get, by any means, fair or foul.''
The GOP contends the maps reflect
a state that has become more Republican.
The same argument is heard in
Texas, which gains two seats. "If they're fair, they're going to
give Republicans a majority,'' said Susan Weddington, state GOP
chairwoman. Legislative gridlock, however, sent the maps to the
courts.
California, too, is an unknown.
GOP analysts say the delegation is too Democrat-heavy already - the
Democrats hold a 32-20 edge. But Rep. Martin Frost, a Texas Democrat
overseeing redistricting, thinks there's room for more
representatives from his party.
Congressional redistricting sits
high on both parties' agendas, said GOP Rep. Tom Davis of Virginia,
who is working with state leaders to help draft maps and craft legal
challenges. He won't talk money.
Democrats promise to spend $13
million, Frost said: "Both parties are deadly serious about this and
both parties are working very hard.''
On the Net: Informal
redistricting scorecard by University of Illinois political science
Professor Michael McDonald: http://ilsc.uis.edu/mcdonald/redistricting-scorecard.htm
The New York Times As
Redistricting Unfolds, Parties Leverage Power to Get More of It By David E. Rosenbaum August 13, 2001
Over the last decade, much of the political
power in Texas has shifted to Republicans, and the party once
intended to use this new strength to redraw the lines of
Congressional districts this year so that Republicans could pick up
a half-dozen or more seats in the 2002 elections.
But those plans may have been thwarted. The
Legislature was unable to agree on a redistricting plan, and the
matter will probably be decided this fall by a panel of three
federal judges, two of whom were appointed by President Bill
Clinton.
In California, the situation is somewhat
reversed. With a Democratic governor and strong Democratic
majorities in the Legislature, Democrats anticipated picking up
several new seats from redistricting. But tension among Democrats
over Hispanic demands for more power and the perilous position of
Representative Gary A. Condit, a Democrat from Modesto, have led
Democrats to lower their sights considerably.
Texas, which will gain two Congressional
seats because of population growth, for a total of 32, and
California, which will gain one, for 53, are among the biggest
battlegrounds in the war over redistricting that arises every decade
after new census figures are released.
But other bitter battles, each with its own
characteristics, are being fought in nearly every state � from
Massachusetts, where the Democratic speaker of the House is at odds
with a popular Democratic congressman and seems intent on taking his
seat away, to Oregon, where the Democratic governor just vetoed the
redistricting plan drafted by the Republican-controlled
Legislature.
"It's political hardball, state by state,
and anything can happen," said Representative Thomas M. Davis III of
Virginia, who is in charge of national Republican redistricting
strategy.
Mr. Davis predicted that when the November
2002 elections are over, Republicans would be 8 to 10 seats ahead
from redistricting. He calculated that Republicans won an additional
25 to 30 seats from redistricting 10 years ago, an important factor
in his party's capture of control of the House in the 1994
elections. (Republicans now have 221 seats to 210 for the Democrats
with 2 independents and 2 vacancies.)
Mr. Davis's Democratic counterpart,
Representative Martin Frost of Texas, conceded that his party
suffered badly from redistricting in the 1990's. But lessons were
learned, Mr. Frost said, and he expects the parties will break even
in redistricting this time.
Independent analysts say that Republicans
may have an advantage but that the net swing from redistricting is
not likely to be more than four seats. "Candidate recruiting, the
state of the economy, the condition of the Bush presidency and some
other factors will matter more than redistricting," said Amy Walter,
who follows the topic for the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan
magazine that tracks House races.
But with the House now so closely divided
between the parties and the prospect that lawmakers once elected
will keep their seats for many years, the difference of a few seats
could determine which party controls the House for the next
decade.
Only a handful of states have completed
redistricting. Many legislatures will take up the issue this fall.
Some states, including New York, will not begin the process until
next year.
These are the fundamental rules: Under the
Constitution, each of the 50 states is entitled to one seat in the
House. The other 385 seats are allotted to the states according to
population. After each decennial census, adjustments are made.
As a result of the 1990 census, 12 seats
shifted. Arizona, Florida, Georgia and Texas gained two seats each
and California, Colorado, Nevada and North Carolina each gained one.
New York and Pennsylvania each lost two seats. Connecticut,
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Ohio, Oklahoma and
Wisconsin each lost one.
Even if the size of their Congressional
delegation is unchanged, states must go through the process of
redistricting to account for population shifts in the state. The
Constitution requires Congressional districts to be nearly equal in
population.
In five states (Arizona, Hawaii, Idaho, New
Jersey and Washington), Congressional redistricting is done by a
commission. In all the rest, it is addressed first by the
legislatures and the governors. When both houses of the legislature
and the governor's office are not controlled by the same party, an
agreement often cannot be reached, and the redistricting map is then
often drawn by a court.
In redistricting cases, legal authorities
say, the political affiliation of the judges involved often makes a
big difference. "It is one of the most political things judges do,"
said Sheldon Goldman, a political scientist at the University of
Massachusetts who specializes in the judiciary. "After Bush v.
Gore," Mr. Goldman said, referring to the Supreme Court decision
that ended the Florida recount after the presidential election last
year, "no one in his right mind can say politics never enters
electoral decisions."
This is why Republicans in Texas are
concerned about having the lines of Congressional districts
determined by a judicial panel dominated by Democrats. The trial in
federal court is scheduled for October.
The states where most of the political
fireworks can be expected are those where one party controls both
houses of the legislature and the governor's office. Republicans
have that situation in eight states with 97 Congressional seats and
Democrats in eight states with 103 seats.
Republicans are especially counting on using
their control to improve their position in Pennsylvania, Ohio,
Florida and Michigan.
In Michigan, one of the few states where
redistricting has been completed, Republicans exercised their
strength. Representative David E. Bonior, the Democratic whip, was
thrown into a largely Republican district, and he is leaving
Congress to run for governor. Two other Michigan Democrats,
Representatives John D. Dingell and Lynn Rivers, will have to run
against each other.
The Michigan delegation now consists of nine
Democrats and seven Republicans. The best guess is that after the
next election, there will be nine Republicans and six Democrats.
Democrats hope to reciprocate in Maryland,
Georgia, Alabama and California. No political expert would be
surprised, for example, if Democrats rearranged the lines in
Maryland next year so they gain two seats. In Indiana, where
redistricting was completed last spring, districts now represented
by two Republicans were merged. The lines were drawn by a commission
with a Democratic majority after the divided Legislature could not
reach an agreement.
But California, where the Legislature plans
to finish redistricting next month, may be less fruitful for
Democrats than might have been expected. One reason is that four
vulnerable Republicans were defeated in the last election, meaning
that the lowest-hanging fruit has already been picked.
Another reason is that the biggest growth in
the state's population and in Democratic strength has come from
Hispanics in and around Los Angeles. Rather than ousting
Republicans, the main Democratic goal in redistricting is likely to
be satisfying the demand of Hispanic voters for more representation.
Democrats would like to do this without harming Democratic
incumbents like Representatives Maxine Waters, who is black, and
Howard L. Berman, who is white, and whose districts have big
Hispanic populations.
In addition, because of the notoriety
growing out of the case of the missing intern Chandra Ann Levy, Mr.
Condit's re-election prospects are in jeopardy.
When the redistricting process began 10
years ago, Democrats held a 100-seat advantage in the House. But
despite large black populations, there were no black representatives
from Alabama, Florida, Virginia and the Carolinas and only one from
Georgia, a situation that Democrats found embarrassing and that the
Republican Justice Department found did not comply with voting
rights laws.
When the Congressional map was redrawn,
heavily black districts were created in all these states. As a
result, blacks were elected to the House in all these states, but
the concentration of black voters led to the development of
overwhelmingly white districts that elected Republicans.
The black Democrats who were elected in the
1990's have become entrenched, Representative Frost said, and can be
re-elected in districts with a smaller proportion of blacks. He said
that in Southern states where Democrats control redistricting, like
Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi and North Carolina, the party will try
to make sure that blacks are spread more evenly among districts
where voters are likely to vote for Democrats, white or black, for
Congress.
In New York, the assumption before the
census figures were in was that of the two Congressional seats the
state stood to lose, one would come from a New York City Democrat
and the other from an upstate Republican.
But the final census numbers showed that the
city's proportion of the state's population actually increased in
the 1990's, making it difficult to take away a Congressional seat.
The latest thinking is that when the new lines are drawn next year,
the most vulnerable Democrat could be Eliot L. Engel, whose district
extends from the Bronx into Westchester County. The most vulnerable
Republicans will probably be Benjamin A. Gilman, of Middletown, and
Amo Houghton of Corning.
Roll Call Between the
Lines By John Mercurio August 13, 2001
Boston Brawling,
Cont.
In a sign that Massachusetts' overwhelmingly
Democratic Legislature could face a redistricting impasse, state
Senate leaders last week sided with Rep. Marty Meehan (D) in his
remap battle with state House Speaker Thomas Finneran (D).
Finneran last month proposed a new House map
that would eliminate Meehan's Lowell-based district in northeast
Massachusetts, forcing him into a primary face-off with nearby Rep.
John Tierney (D).
Meeting with mayors of four of the largest
towns in Tierney's 6th district, state Senate President Thomas
Birmingham (D) said Finneran's plan would be a "mistake."
Birmingham and the mayors "did not see a
need for two incumbent Congressmen to run together and they can
envision a map which preserved both the 5th and 6th while also
enabling them to pursue establishing a majority-minority district,
while they still consolidate other districts," said Allison
Franklin, a Birmingham spokeswoman.
Birmingham is an all-but-declared candidate
in the gubernatorial primary that Meehan was pressured to forgo
following Finneran's threats.
Birmingham's views were echoed Thursday by
state Sen. Stanley Rosenberg (D), the chairman of the state Senate
Redistricting Committee.
"There is significant concern in the state
Senate about the dynamic of having two incumbents run against each
other," Rosenberg said. "We're reviewing several maps, but the issue
of incumbency is a significant concern."
Rosenberg said he hopes the state Senate
will approve a map by late September and that both chambers can
agree on a consensus plan by Nov. 21.
With Finneran showing no signs of backing
off his plan, however, redistricting insiders say Rosenberg's
schedule could be overly optimistic. Will Keyser, Meehan's senior
adviser, said Birmingham's comments "were very helpful and
encouraging. But I think we're realistic in knowing that the process
really has just begun. We're still quite early in the game."
Tornado Hits
Mississippi!
Well, not a real tornado, just a proposed
House district in the Magnolia State that's being likened to a real
live twister.
"They call it the tornado plan," state House
Speaker Tim Ford (D) said Thursday of a new district that would
stretch across northern Mississippi into Rankin County. He called
the district "ugly" but acknowledged its appeal because of recent
voting patterns and demographics.
The plan would create a GOP-leaning
district, mostly with territory from Rep. Roger Wicker's (R) 1st
district. It would take Rankin, a GOP stronghold, from Rep. Chip
Pickering's (R) 3rd district.
That would help state legislators accomplish
their goal of eliminating a House district (required under
reapportionment) by forming a new seat that combines most of Rep.
Ronnie Shows' (D) 4th district in southwest Mississippi with other
parts of Pickering's current base.
The two Members would be thrown together
into the new, combined district. Ford says the tornado plan would
hurt Pickering and help Shows.
Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D) is expected to call
the Democratic controlled legislature into a special session for
redistricting sometime this fall.
Minority Gains.
Minorities could gain a second House seat in
Arizona if a new map being considered by the state's bipartisan
redistricting commission is enacted.
The two proposed minority districts,
spanning southwestern Arizona, would have 62 percent and 72 percent
minority populations, respectively.
Hispanics alone would have 54 percent of the
voting-age population in one district. Also, Hispanics, American
Indians, Blacks, Asians and other minorities would have a fighting
chance for House seats in two other districts, each with about 36
percent minority populations.
The House map would create five House
districts in the increasingly populous Phoenix area, put two others
in southern Arizona and create a purely rural district centered in
the state's northern reaches.
Under the 1990 redistricting, Phoenix has
just two districts. But the Phoenix area's population exploded
during the past decade and now has more than 3 million residents -
about three-fifths of the state's total population of 5.1 million.
Still, it's roughly 125,000 residents short of the number needed to
obtain all five districts.
Because Arizona's population grew by 40
percent during the 1990s, including a 79 percent increase in the
minority population, the state's six-Member delegation is gaining
two House seats in reapportionment.
The maps released last Wednesday offered the
first glimpse of House maps the commission is reviewing. They were
drafted by the bipartisan commission's consultant, National
Demographics Corp. The commission is comprised of two Republicans,
two Democrats and one Independent.
Arizona's new, non-political Independent
Redistricting Commission, created by a statewide vote last year, is
expected to approve a new House map this fall.
Roll Call Between the
Lines By John Mercurio and Chris
Cillizza August 6, 2001
Getting the Jitters.
Bracing for a Democratic-controlled remap
that could force them into hostile new territory, several House
Republicans in California have intensified their fundraising drives
this year.
At least
half the 20 Republicans in the state's 52-Member delegation raised
far more money in the first six months of this year than they
collected during the comparable period in 1999, according to
fundraising reports filed last week with the Federal Election
Commission.
The
group which features several top redistricting targets, includes
Reps. Elton Gallegly, Bill Thomas, Dana Rohrabacher, Ed Royce, John
Doolittle, Buck McKeon, Ken Calvert, Mary Bono, Duke Cunningham and
Duncan Hunter. Fundraising reports were unavailable for Reps.
Christopher Cox and Richard Pombo.
"Both houses of the [Legislature] and the
governorship are held by Democrats, so what we Republicans are
holding is our breath," Rohrabacher told the Orange County (Calif.)
Register. "I've raised a little bit more money than I normally would
in case the district is so configured that I have a lot of new
voters. I will have some money to introduce myself."
There was, of course,
an exception to the rule. Another House Republican wearing a bull's
eye on his back, Rep. Steve Horn, raised just $4,000 during the
six-month period, adding fuel to speculation that he may retire next
year.
The state
legislature will start considering new House maps later this month.
Jersey Plan Falters.
The state's bipartisan redistricting panel
will convene after Labor Day to vote on one of several maps
currently being reviewed, but support for an incumbent-friendly
House map drafted by Members could be waning.
Specifically, GOP
commissioners are criticizing a delegation-led move to increase the
Democratic strength of Rep. Rush Holt's (D) district just nine
months after he won re-election by 651 votes. Some Republicans also
want to further protect moderate Republican Rep. Marge Roukema, who
has faced a series of primary challengers in the 5th district,
according to PoliticsNJ.com.
Additionally, Democratic commissioners are
trying to rework proposed district lines in South Jersey, where the
delegation map splits Cherry Hill between the 1st and 3rd districts,
represented by Reps. Robert Andrews (D) and Jim Saxton (R),
respectively.
Camden County Democrats are resisting the move,
which could position Cherry Hill Mayor Susan Bass Levin to run if
Andrews retires. Levin unsuccessfully challenged Saxton last year,
but insiders say she would not be the choice of local party leaders
if a Congressional seat were to open up. Two of the five Democratic
commissioners have not yet endorsed the delegation plan.
Helping Heather.
New Mexico Republicans released their own
plan last week to redraw the state's three House seats in an attempt
to protect Rep. Heather Wilson's (R) Albuquerque-based 1st, a
potential swing district.
The plan, crafted by demographer Rod Adair for
the state GOP, would keep the entire city of Albuquerque in the 1st
and would add the tech center of Los Alamos.
This proposal runs
counter to one of several plans submitted to the state's
Democratic-controlled Legislature by a consultant to the committee
charged with redistricting, which would place parts of Albuquerque
into all three districts and make the new 1st a majority-Hispanic
seat unifying the Rio Grande Valley.
The plan would also bundle the state's Native
American population into the 3rd district of Rep. Tom Udall (D).
Wilson does not
comment on redistricting directly. A Wilson staffer, however, said
"Representative Wilson has a keen interest in redistricting because
it affects the people she represents in Congress.
"She hopes the
redistricting process is a fair and open process," added the
staffer.
The 1st
district is marginal. Then Vice President Al Gore scored a 1-point
victory here over then Texas Gov. George W. Bush in the 2000
presidential race.
State legislators will meet in September to
draw new lines for the 2002 elections. Control of the process is
split, with Democrats in charge in the legislature and Gov. Gary
Johnson (R) having veto power over any plan. It's the first time in
40 years that a Republican governor will oversee the process in the
state.
Texas Tussle.
Texas Democrats last week charged that Gov.
Rick Perry (R) conspired with GOP lawyers to find a friendly judge
in the legal battle over the state's redistricting process. Perry
denied the allegation, made in a Democratic court filing.
Perry had the power to
call state lawmakers into a special redistricting session after the
divided Legislature failed to adopt a map during a regular session
that ended in May. But Perry decided not to do so, saying he doubted
the Legislature could reach a consensus.
On the same day that Perry notified legislative
leaders of his decision, attorneys with the Houston firm Baker Botts
were filing litigation in a Republican
judge's court in Harris County.
However, Renea Hicks, a Democratic attorney in
Austin, said the timing was not a coincidence. Hicks told The
Associated Press that the Baker Botts lawyers had "inside
information from the governor and/or his staff" so they could find
"a forum to their liking." Democrats filed their legal papers last
Tuesday.
Lawyers
for Democrats and Republicans have filed several redistricting
lawsuits and are jockeying to see which court will hear which
lawsuit. Typically, the first lawsuit, if filed properly, determines
where the court battle over redistricting will be fought.
A Perry spokeswoman
last week brushed off the Democratic charges. "Conspiracy theories
abound," Kathy Walt said. "It's a political season, and there's been
a shortage of conspiracy theories."
New York Times Metro Briefing:
Newark: Residency Rule For Candidates July 30, 2001
A federal judge has ruled that
New Jersey's strict residency requirement for legislative candidates
violates the United States Constitution's equal-protection clause.
Jay R. Schwartz and Dennis Gonzalez sued the state after being
barred from running for the Assembly in Passaic County. Because of
redistricting and their moves to different towns, they had not lived
in their districts for a full year. But with the June 26 primary
over, the impact of the July 19 ruling by the judge, Dickinson R.
Debevoise, above, of Federal District Court in Newark, was
uncertain.
Roll Call Between the
Lines By John Mercurio July 30,
2001
Play Ball!
He was there to talk about redistricting, but
House Democratic Caucus Chairman Martin Frost (Texas) clearly had
another spectator sport on his mind Friday morning.
In his latest attempt
to win the redistricting spin war, Frost repeated his mantra that
the state-by-state process will conclude in a virtual draw
nationally.
"We
may pick up a few seats; they may pick up a few seats," said Frost,
who was joined at the Capitol Hill media briefing by Democratic
Congressional Campaign Committee Chairwoman Nita Lowey (N.Y.). "It
will basically be a close ball game."
With that, Frost launched into a protracted
metaphor about "GOP grand-slam fantasies" in states such as
Pennsylvania, Texas and Florida, "Republicans swinging for the
fence" in Ohio and Michigan and Democrats' numerous opportunities
for more realistic "base hits" in Maryland, California and Oklahoma,
among others.
"We'll be perfectly happy with a lot of singles
and doubles," Frost quipped. "Republicans are banking on massive,
five- and six-seat swings in some states."
It didn't stop there.
Frost then compared Republicans to former Minnesota Twin Harmon
Killebrew, who "usually swung for the fences, trying to hit a home
run every at-bat, regardless of the circumstances." Killebrew, who
played from 1954 to 1975, hit 573 home runs in 21 seasons, Frost
noted, but he had only a .256 career batting average and struck out
1,559 times.
Democrats, Frost said, are behaving like
legendary New York Yankee Joe DiMaggio, who had only 361 career home
runs, but had a career batting average of .325. His 56-game hitting
streak in 1941 is still the longest in Major League history.
Additionally, Frost observed, the star slugger struck out only 369
times.
DiMaggio's
teams won nine World Series in 13 seasons, while Killebrew never won
a championship.
"Like Killebrew, Republicans are attempting to
club a home run at every opportunity, regardless of the
circumstances," Frost said.
House Republicans countered that they're
already poised for a net gain of eight seats in the nine states that
have completed the redistricting process - five seats in Michigan
and one seat in Indiana, Illinois and Nevada.
"Martin Frost's
understanding of redistricting and baseball is deeply flawed," said
Steve Schmidt, the National Republican Congressional Committee's
communications director. "If they wish to compare themselves to
baseball players, it's clear that Bill Buckner would be most
appropriate."
For
the record, Buckner was the Red Sox first baseman who allowed a
routine ground ball to roll between his legs in a misplay that cost
Boston the 1986 World Series championship.
The Keating Five.
Oklahoma Gov. Frank Keating's (R) wife, Cathy,
is running to succeed Rep. Steve Largent (R), but that didn't stop
the term-limited governor from wading into his state's redistricting
battle last week.
Rejecting claims that he was maneuvering to
protect his wife and the Tulsa-based district in which she's
running, Keating unveiled a series of House maps, including one that
would throw GOP Reps. Ernest Istook and J.C. Watts into the same
central Oklahoma district.
Members of the House delegation, which is
losing one of its six seats in reapportionment, got a glimpse of
Keating's plans last week when Oklahoma Secretary of State Mike
Hunter, who also serves as a political adviser and legislative
liaison for Keating, traveled to Washington to discuss redrawing
districts.
House
Republicans reacted skeptically, at best, to the governor's foray
into redistricting. Istook suggested that the delegation may present
a map that would eliminate Largent's seat, a proposal Hunter called
a "non-starter," according to Istook spokeswoman Micah Swafford.
Cathy Keating "has far
more importance than any of the incumbents to the governor," Istook
told the Daily Oklahoman newspaper.
Swafford noted that Keating's plan could
jeopardize the political futures of three Republicans who hold
powerful positions in the House - Watts, the Republican Conference
chairman; Istook, a senior member of the Appropriations Committee;
and Rep. Wes Watkins, who is on Ways and Means.
"It's perfectly
understandable that the governor would want to protect his wife, but
he puts her above everyone else," Swafford charged. "He's talking
about sacrificing one of these incumbents for the possibility of an
open seat for his wife."
Meanwhile, House Democrats are content to sit
back and watch the GOP fireworks. They played down the ultimate
impact of the governor's plan, noting that Democrats who control the
state Legislature have not weighed in yet.
"Nonetheless, there
will be a lot of blood in the water here as Republicans fall over
themselves," a gleeful Frost predicted Friday.
Meehan in the
Middle.
Worried about continued resistance from state
House Speaker Thomas Finneran (D), the Bay State's House delegation
is finally throwing its weight behind Rep. Marty Meehan (D-Mass.) in
a battle between the two over redistricting.
That is, everyone
except Rep. Barney Frank (D), who said Friday that he erred when he
signed a delegation letter urging Finneran to drop his map plan.
"I'm embarrassed," Frank told The Associated Press. "I made a
stupid, careless mistake."
Frank said he supports Finneran's plan to
create a majority-minority district in southeastern Massachusetts, a
move that would require Meehan to run against Rep. John Tierney (D).
"There appears to be strong interest in one and I am supportive of
that," Frank said. "I represent those people, and I would have to
side with them."
Responding to Finneran's threat, Meehan last
week opted to forgo a gubernatorial bid to run again in what he
hopes will be his own district.
Finneran had said he would reconsider his
proposal if Meehan quit the governor's race to seek re-election.
However, he reversed course last week, maintaining his support for
the map that pits Tierney against Meehan.
"Adopting a
redistricting plan that preserves and enhances a delegation's
influence in federal decision making is a worthy and important goal
of any state's redistricting plan," the House Members wrote last
Thursday in a letter to Finneran and state Senate President Thomas
Birmingham (D).
Members acknowledged that there are other goals
in redistricting besides incumbent protection. "[But] we believe
they can be met without forcing any incumbent Member of the
delegation to run against one another," they wrote.
Roll
Call Between the Lines By John Mercurio July 23,
2001
Helping Themselves.
The New Jersey House delegation has embraced a
new map aimed at protecting a bipartisan duo of vulnerable Members,
Reps. Rush Holt (D) and Mike Ferguson (R). Officials expect the map
to gain the approval of the state's redistricting commission later
this year.
Meanwhile, that commission has chosen Rutgers
University Professor Alan Rosenthal as its tie-breaking 13th member.
Rosenthal, who runs Rutgers' Eagleton Institute of Politics, served
as the tiebreaker when New Jersey reconfigured its House districts a
decade ago. He is a registered Democrat who nonetheless voted with
Republicans in 1992 for the current House map.
"Both Democratic and
Republican members of the commission thought [Rosenthal] was fair.
He knows New Jersey and participates in the election process," said
George Gilmore, chairman of the commission's GOP delegation.
The 12th district, now
represented by Holt, would pick up some Democratic precincts in
Trenton and the towns of Franklin and North Brunswick, while some
GOP-leaning communities in Hunterdon and Somerset counties would
become part of Ferguson's 7th district. Holt won his 1998 election
by 3 points and was re-elected last year by 651 votes.
Copies of the plan
will be forwarded to the redistricting commission, which will
determine the actual map. However, officials in both parties said
the commission would probably approve the delegation's blueprint.
"If the entire
delegation agreed on one map, we'd certainly consider it," Gilmore
said.
Down in the Valley.
Hoping to capitalize on Hispanic population
gains throughout California in the 1990s, two prominent Hispanic
groups last week urged the Golden State to draw a new House district
into the San Joaquin Valley that would help elect another Latino
House Member.
The
groups also want to amass large Hispanic bases in the Long
Beach-based district of Rep. Steve Horn (R), who is widely viewed as
one of the Democrats' top redistricting targets, and the Palm
Springs-based district of Rep. Mary Bono (R).
Statewide, the
Hispanic population soared by 43 percent in the 1990s. California's
11 million Hispanics now make up 31 percent of its population.
The groups - the
Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund and the William
C. Velasquez Institute - want to create a new district that would
include most of Tulare County and the city of Fresno in the
agriculture-rich Central Valley.
Those areas are currently represented by Reps.
Cal Dooley (D), Bill Thomas (R) and George Radanovich (R). The
region falls just south of the Modesto-based district of Rep. Gary
Condit (D), whose political and legal woes are sure to be a major
issue for Democrats who control the state's remapping process.
California's 53rd
district will come as a result of the fact that the state gained one
House seat in reapportionment.
"The San Joaquin Valley is growing
dramatically, and a Tulare County seat made good sense," said
Antonio Gonzalez, president of the institute. "This area has been
historically divided for no good reason. There are no state Assembly
members or Congress people who are from Tulare County."
The new district would
be nearly 47 percent Hispanic.
Horn's 38th district would also change
dramatically under the groups' plan. The 38th would shift the
primarily Hispanic cities of Huntington Park, Cudahy, South Gate,
Lynwood, Paramount, Bellflower and parts of other nearby cities into
one district.
The
new district would be about 69 percent Hispanic. Horn won a fifth
term last November by just 1 point - by far his closest re-election
margin.
The plan
for Bono's 44th district would join Imperial County with parts of
Riverside County "to unite Latino communities that have been
divided" in the southeast part of the state, Gonzalez said. That
district would be nearly 50 percent Hispanic.
Roll
Call Between the Lines By John Mercurio July 16,
2001
Condit's
(Redistricting) Dilemma.
The official line among California Democrats
last week was that "no one's really thinking about" how Rep. Gary
Condit's (D-Calif.) woes will affect redistricting in the nation's
most-populous state.
"Don't believe that, not for a second. It's all
we're thinking about. It's all we're talking about," said a top
state Democratic official, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
Indeed, few House
Members could have a more significant impact on redistricting in
California than Condit, whose Central Valley 18th district is ripe
for a GOP takeover (President Bush carried it by 9 points) and
borders two Democratic-held districts desperately in need of help
from party leaders, who control the state's remap.
Specifically, sources
say, Democrats were debating how to shore up Condit, who won a sixth
full term last year with 67 percent well before most people had even
heard of missing 24-year-old intern Chandra Levy, while bolstering
nearby Democratic Reps. Ellen Tauscher and Cal Dooley, who recently
have faced competitive challengers. Other sources said party leaders
are also preparing for Condit's possible resignation, which would
allow them greater flexibility in the remap. Condit has said he
plans to run for re-election.
Democrats also said they would like to target
Rep. Richard Pombo (R), who represents a potential swing seat that
borders Condit's to the north.
Meanwhile, Republicans, and some Democrats,
have floated names of potential successors to Condit, either for a
special election in the current district or in its new configuration
in 2002.
State
Republicans focused mostly on term-limited state Sen. Dick Monteith,
who said he would run for Congress if Condit does not seek another
term.
Democratic
prospects included former Rep. Richard Lehman, an ally of Sen.
Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), state Sen. Jim Costa and former state
Assemblyman Rusty Areias.
Another possible Democratic candidate is state
Assemblyman Dennis Cardoza, but Cardoza could be hindered by his own
resume - he once worked for Condit as his special assistant for
local government affairs.
National Republican Congressional Committee
Chairman Tom Davis (Va.) said Republicans would target the district,
but only if Condit is not on the ballot.
"The 18th district is a district that is
trending more Republican with every election. If the seat were to
become vacant, it would be a huge battleground," Davis said, adding
that the NRCC has not conducted a poll there since Condit's troubles
began.
Going to Court.
The GOP-led Legislature in Michigan voted
along party lines to approve a House map last week that could force
six Democratic incumbents to face-off in three primaries, but
Democrats have already filed a court challenge to the plan.
The Republican plan
would pit Democratic Reps. John Dingell and Lynn Rivers against each
other in a district that favors Dingell; Dale Kildee against James
Barcia in a seat that favors Kildee; and Sander Levin against David
Bonior. Bonior, the Minority Whip, is retiring to run for governor
in 2002.
Gov. John
Engler (R) has said he will sign the redistricting bill. Republicans
were able to target so many Democrats in part because Michigan's
16-Member delegation lost a House seat in reapportionment.
Last Wednesday a group
of mostly Democrats filed a lawsuit in U.S. District Court in
Detroit challenging the plan, which experts say could switch the
state's House delegation from 9-to-7 Democratic to 9-to-6
Republican. Tom Lewand, an aide of then Gov. James Blanchard (D), is
the lead attorney for the Democrats.
Going to Court II.
Virginia Democrats plan to challenge a
GOP-backed House map in court, charging that it dilutes minority
influence by moving thousands of black voters now in Rep. Randy
Forbes' (R) district into Rep. Bobby Scott's (D) district.
Notably, the GOP plan
also removes Portsmouth, the home of state Sen. Louise Lucas (D),
from Forbes' district. Lucas, who is black, narrowly lost a June 19
special election to Forbes in the southeastern Virginia district.
The map now faces
scrutiny by the Justice Department under requirements of the Voting
Rights Act. However, owing to the department's initial approval of
the GOP-sponsored legislative maps earlier this month, several
Democrats said they're preparing to go to court.
Scott, an
African-American who saw his Richmond-based district largely redrawn
in 1998 to reduce the percentage of black voters by 10 percent, said
the main issue will be whether Republicans have "packed" black
voters into his district, already a Democratic stronghold, for the
purposes of "diluting" their strength elsewhere.
"The dilution in the
4th violates the Voting Rights Act," Scott said Friday. "In the old
district, the minority voters in the 4th were able to elect a
candidate of their choice and, in fact, candidates of choice in
statewide elections carried the district. Under the new district,
they would rarely carry the district."
Meehan's Bad Week.
While House GOP leaders in Washington last
week blocked Rep. Marty Meehan's (D-Mass.) prized campaign finance
reform plan, his Bay State colleagues offered scant support in his
clash with state legislators over redistricting.
Members of the state's
all-Democratic House delegation said they would not help Meehan
restore district lines, threatened in a plan by state House Speaker
Thomas Finneran (D), until Meehan announces whether he intends to
run for governor next year.
"Until we know if he's running for governor,
there's nothing to fight over," one House Member told the Boston
Globe on the condition of anonymity.
Last week Finneran unveiled a House map that
would eliminate Meehan's Lowell-based district, which is northwest
of Boston, and replace it with one in the southeastern part of the
state. The Finneran plan could force Meehan into the district of
Rep. John Tierney (D), who doesn't intend to back down from the
possibility of a Member-versus-Member primary with Meehan.
"I'm running for the
6th district, and I'm the incumbent there," he declared.
For his part, Meehan
has said he will decide this summer whether to challenge Gov. Jane
Swift (R) in 2002.
Additionally, the Finneran plan would force
Rep. Mike Capuano (D) to run in a majority-minority district.
Chris Cillizza contributed to this
report.
Roll Call Between the
Lines By John Mercurio July 9,
2001
Headed to Court.
Rep. Martin Frost (D-Texas), who has
frequently predicted and privately hoped that redistricting in Texas
would end up in court, appears to have gotten his wish. Citing vanishing hopes that the state's divided
Legislature could reach a remap consensus, Gov. Rick Perry (R) said
last Thursday that he does not plan to spend the money required to
hold a special redistricting session.
"It is now clear to me that the Texas
Legislature is not currently able to reach a consensus on a new
Congressional plan," he wrote in a letter to legislative leaders. "I
have decided that it is not in the best interest of our State to
call a special session at this time."
Perhaps more than most House Members from
Texas, Frost has closely monitored his state's redistricting
process, both in his role as chairman of the House Democratic Caucus
and as a top target of GOP redistricting agents.
Last month Frost
criticized a map put out by Republicans in the state's
GOP-controlled Senate, which would have targeted him as well as
Democratic Reps. Ken Bentsen and Nick Lampson.
"Passing a
Congressional plan in both houses of the divided Texas Legislature
was always a difficult task, particularly in light of the fact that
they were unable to agree on a plan for their own legislative
lines," Frost said in a statement last week. "I am very confident
the courts will craft a fair plan that protects minority voting
rights and honors Texas tradition by providing voters the
opportunity to vote for their Member."
Rural-Urban Divide.
Most rural voters in Utah back a plan to expand
freshman Rep. Jim Matheson's (D) Salt Lake City-based district into
the state's rural reaches, placing them at odds with city voters who
favor keeping the district's urban nature, a new poll shows.
About 43 percent of
those surveyed in a Deseret News-KSL poll favored dividing Salt Lake
County among Utah's three Members. But only 29 percent of Salt Lake
City residents backed the idea of blending it with more rural
regions, according to the survey, conducted June 25-30 by Dan Jones
and Associates.
Jones, an independent pollster based in Salt
Lake City, questioned 403 Utah residents; the poll had a margin of
error of plus or minus 5 percent.
The plan, which Matheson has threatened to
challenge in court, has the backing of the state's two House
Republicans, Reps. Jim Hansen and Chris Cannon. But state Democrats
are crying foul, noting that it would effectively end freshman
Matheson's House tenure by diluting any Democratic strength in the
2nd.
Indeed,
respondents to the survey were split largely along party lines.
The poll found that 48
percent of Democrats favored keeping Matheson's district wholly in
Salt Lake County, while only 33 percent favored splitting the county
three ways. Republicans preferred the three-way split by 53 percent,
with only 17 percent saying the 2nd should be kept entirely in Salt
Lake County.
Arab-Americans Decry
Michigan Plan.
Arab-Americans are criticizing a GOP-sponsored
redistricting plan in Michigan, saying it would weaken their clout
in suburban Detroit, one of their largest communities.
"The dividing line
goes through the heart of Dearborn, with Arab-Americans on one side
and the Europeans on the other," Ismael Ahmed, executive director of
the Arab Community Center for Economic and Social Services, told the
Detroit News.
"Because this is the center of the [most dense]
Arab-American community in the United States, this has national
implications," he added. "It's not that we don't like Detroit. Our
representation would be weakened."
About one-third of the city's 98,000 residents
are Arab-Americans. Approximately 300,000 Arab-Americans live in the
Detroit area, which experts say is the highest concentration in the
country.
Although
state Republicans have cautioned that the plan is preliminary,
Nasser Beydoun, executive director of the American-Arab Chamber of
Commerce, said Arab-Americans might file a federal lawsuit if the
final boundary lines are similar.
Colorado Commission.
Leaders of Colorado's divided Legislature last
week assembled a bipartisan task force to start tackling
redistricting, several months before legislators are scheduled to
consider an actual map.
State Senate members of the task force are
Majority Leader Bill Thiebaut (D), Terry Phillips (D), Ron Teck (R)
and Doug Lamborn (R). State House members are Rosemary Marshall
(D),Val Vigil (D), Keith King (R) and Joe Stengel (R).
Colorado gained one
House seat in reapportionment, making it unclear which sitting House
Members, if any, will be targeted.
Roll
Call Between the Lines By John Mercurio July 2, 2001
Drawn Out.
Marty Castro
was ready for a primary challenge to Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.). A
Chicago attorney and friend of Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin (D) and
Mayor Richard Daley, Castro is a proven fundraiser with ties to the
city's Hispanic and party activists, and he recently bought a house
in the Hispanic-majority district that has re-elected Gutierrez four
times.
However,
that was before Illinois' House delegation drafted a new map that
carved the block Castro recently moved onto out of Gutierrez's
horseshoe-shaped district.
"It's not even a full city
block. It's a half-block, and it just happens to be the half-block
that I live on. This is not a coincidence," Castro said Thursday.
"My wife and I went to sleep in the 4th Congressional district and
we woke up in the 7th. ... It is exactly these kinds of politi cal
games that make voters cynical about politics."
The new map,
which has been embraced by state legislators, places Castro in the
majority-black 7th, represented by African-American Rep. Danny Davis
(D). Castro insisted he doesn't want to challenge Davis, saying, "I
want to run in my community, and this is my community."
Castro is
not alone. Elsewhere in Illinois, Lance Pressl (D), who took 39
percent in a 2000 challenge to Rep. Phil Crane (R) and planned to
run again, is now drawn out of Crane's district - by less than 100
feet. State Sen. Barack Obama (D), who took 30 percent last year in
a primary challenge to Rep. Bobby Rush (D), now lives two blocks
from the border of Rush's district. State Sen. Donne Trotter (D) and
George Roby, who also challenged Rush last year, were likewise drawn
out of his district.
In southern
Illinois, Mike Kelleher (D), who lost to now freshman Rep. Tim
Johnson (R) last November, now lives down the street from Johnson's
district.
Legislators
and incumbent House Members have fiercely denied engaging in any
self-interested monkey business, and Gutierrez spokesman Billy
Weinberg said Castro's cries of foul play will backfire in the 4th.
"This is
like people who move to the banks of the Mississippi River, and then
when the water starts to rise, they complain that their house is the
one that gets flooded. He's trying to make noises, and it's kind of
an odd noise to make," Weinberg said.
"After a
sustained period of making this your core issue, it dawns on voters
that this is the only thing he has to talk about. To whatever extent
he has the public megaphone, he's chosen to make a campaign issue of
how the location of his house affects his political future."
Boosting Randy, Stiffing Ollie.
In charge of
redistricting for the first time, Virginia Republicans last week
signaled that they may use their new power to protect newly elected
Rep. Randy Forbes (R) by increasing the percentage of white voters
in his district.
However, the
new maps outlined by GOP leaders of the General Assembly had some
bad news for another Republican - 1994 Senate nominee Oliver North,
who failed to persuade legislators to draw the district for which he
had hoped.
Republicans
are certain to hang Rep. Rick Boucher (D) with a more competitive
district, but they rejected a plan advanced by North's supporters
that would stretch the Democrat's southwestern Virginia seat into
Northern Virginia, a move that could have set the stage for North to
run against Boucher. Just days before Republicans unveiled the maps,
North said he would run if a district was drawn for him.
The GOP map
floated in the state House was drawn by state Del. Jeannemarie
Devolites (R), a close friend of National Republican Congressional
Committee Chairman Tom Davis (Va.).
In his role
as NRCC chairman, Davis has said the committee will press state
legislators to maximize potential Republican gains in redistricting.
But the Devolites map protects Davis and two other House Members
from Northern Virginia, including one House Democrat: Reps. Frank
Wolf (R) and Jim Moran (D).
The clear
winner in the GOP maps is Forbes, a former state Senator who
narrowly beat African-American state Sen. Louise Lucas (D) in a June
19 special election. Lucas' strong showing in GOP-friendly district
is widely attributed to unexpectedly high turnout among black
voters.
Forbes'
white constituency would increase from 59 to 67 percent under
Devolites' plan. Most of the black voters in the 4th would be moved
into the Richmond-based district of Rep. Bobby Scott (D), who in
1992 became the first African-American elected to Congress from
Virginia since Reconstruction.
The General
Assembly will consider the plans during a July 9 special session.
Two other maps, introduced in the state Senate, were similar to
Devolites' proposal.
Texas Remap.
Zeroing in
on a trio of House Democrats, Republicans in the Lone Star State
last week advanced a new map that would create two new minority
districts, but is also aimed at giving the GOP a majority in the
House delegation.
The map
pushed by Republicans in the state's GOP-controlled Senate, which
failed to produce a map during a legislative session earlier this
year, would cause problems for House Democratic Caucus Chairman
Martin Frost and Reps. Ken Bentsen and Nick Lampson.
Democrats
have cried foul, and Frost, a Democratic point person on
redistricting, lambasted Republicans in his home state for drafting
a map that is "not a serious plan."
"The
proposal moves the Legislature farther away from consensus on a
Congressional map, not closer, because it differs significantly from
the map already passed in the House Committee," Frost said. He added
that the GOP map is "bizarrely shaped and extremely partisan."
Republicans
say their plan creates 17 GOP-leaning seats and 15 Democratic seats.
Democrats claim it's closer to 20 Republican seats, 10 Democratic
seats and two swing districts.
Hoping to
bypass a Republican-dominated process that features a Republican
Senate and Gov. Rick Perry (R), Democrats, who run the state House,
are criticizing the GOP plan in an effort to ensure that
redistricting is resolved in court.
Perry has said he would call
a special session for redistricting if both parties resolve their
differences beforehand. Otherwise, he has threatened to send the
issue to federal court. It is widely expected on both sides of the
aisle that redistricting will end up there.
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