Virginia

Racial Representation
Of Virginia's voting population of 2,730,292, 18.6% are black and 4.8% are Latino.  Under the current 11-district system, black voters make up the majority in one district.  Virginia currently has one black representative.  Under the proposed super districting plan, black voters are well-positioned to elect a candidate of choice in Super District A; black voters in coalition with other minority and white voters are well-positioned to elect a candidate of choice in Super District B; and black voters supporting a candidate with crossover appeal in Super District C could elect a candidate of choice in coalition with other minority and white voters.
Political Analysis
In the 2000 Presidential election, George W. Bush won Virginia with 52% of the vote over Al Gore's 44%.  Virginia's Democratic partisanship is 46.2%.  Under the current 11-district system, only two districts can be considered Democratic despite the fact that Democrats make up just under half of Virginia's voters.  Under the proposed super districting plan, voters would likely elect four Republicans, four Democrats, and three candidates who could come from either party.

 

SUPER DISTRICT A - THREE SEATS
     

            2000 Presidential Vote

    % Black % Latino
State CD Bush (%) Gore (%) Other (%) Total Origin Origin
Virginia 3 65724 (32.3%) 134020 (65.9%) 3603 (1.8%) 203347 56.0% 2.6%
Virginia 6 147961 (59.8%) 92407 (37.4%) 6984 (2.8%) 247352 10.9% 2.0%
Virginia 7 172425 (60.7%) 105504 (37.1%) 6261 (2.2%) 284190 16.1% 2.0%
Total   386110 (52.5%) 331931 (45.2%) 16848 (2.3%) 734889 25.4% 2.2%

Winning Percentage:

25%
Voting Rights Analysis: Black voters are well-positioned to elect a candidate of choice.
District Partisanship: 46.8% This super district would likely elect one Democrat and one
Republican with one swing seat.

 

SUPER DISTRICT B - THREE SEATS
     

            2000 Presidential Vote

    % Black % Latino
State CD Bush (%) Gore (%) Other (%) Total Origin Origin
Virginia 4 131834 (54.2%) 107553 (44.2%) 3690 (1.5%) 243077 33.1% 2.0%
Virginia 5 137223 (55.1%) 102814 (41.3%) 8907 (3.6%) 248944 23.9% 1.6%
Virginia 9 129110 (54.6%) 100298 (42.4%) 7011 (3.0%) 236419 3.8% 1.1%
Total   398167 (54.7%) 310665 (42.6%) 19608 (2.7%) 728440 20.4% 1.6%

Winning Percentage:

25%
Voting Rights Analysis: Black voters in coalition with other minority and white voters are well-positioned to elect a candidate of choice.
District Partisanship: 44.2% This super district would likely elect one Democrat and one
Republican with one swing seat.

 

SUPER DISTRICT C - FIVE SEATS
     

            2000 Presidential Vote

    % Black % Latino
State CD Bush (%) Gore (%) Other (%) Total Origin Origin
Virginia 1 146914 (58.4%) 98731 (39.2%) 6060 (2.4%) 251705 18.4% 3.0%
Virginia 2 115512 (54.8%) 90256 (42.8%) 4940 (2.3%) 210708 21.4% 4.4%
Virginia 8 101788 (38.2%) 152940 (57.4%) 11692 (4.4%) 266420 13.4% 16.4%
Virginia 10 148211 (55.8%) 109063 (41.1%) 8106 (3.1%) 265380 6.7% 7.1%
Virginia 11 140961 (51.7%) 123702 (45.4%) 8087 (3.0%) 272750 10.1% 9.1%
Total   653386 (51.6%) 574962 (45.4%) 38885 (3.1%) 1266963 13.6% 8.2%

Winning Percentage:

16.7%
Voting Rights Analysis: Black voters supporting a candidate with crossover appeal could elect a candidate of choice in coalition with other minority and white voters.
District Partisanship: 47.0% This super district would likely elect two Democrats and two
Republicans with one swing seat.

 

This proposal is based on the current congressional districts of Virginia.  Because current congressional districts are often the results of gerrymandering, the proposed super district boundaries are not as smooth and nice-looking as they could be in a similar proposal that made use of sub-congressional district data.