New Jersey

Racial Representation Of New Jersey's voting population of 3,035,132, 11.8% are black and 11.8% are Latino.  Under the current 13-district system, black voters make up the majority one district and Latino voters do not make up the majority in any district.  There is currently one black and one Latino representative.  Under the proposed super districting plan, black voters are well-positioned to elect a candidate of choice in Super District C.  Both black and Latino voters supporting a candidate with crossover appeal could elect a candidate of choice in coalition with white voters in Super District A.  Black voters in coalition with Latino and white voters are well-positioned to elect a candidate of choice in Super District B.  Even though Latino voters are above the victory threshold in Super District C, they would likely need crossover support to elect a candidate of choice.
Political Analysis In the 2000 Presidential election, Al Gore won New Jersey with 56% of the popular vote over George W. Bush's 40%.  The state's overall Democratic partisanship is 58.0%.  Despite making up two-fifths of New Jersey's voting population, there are currently only two Republican districts and two competitive districts in New Jersey.  Under the proposed super districting plan, voters would likely elect seven Democrats, five Republicans, and one candidate who could come from either party.

 

SUPER DISTRICT A - FIVE SEATS
     

            2000 Presidential Vote

    % Black % Latino
State CD Bush (%) Gore (%) Other (%) Total Origin Origin
New Jersey 5 140132 (44.5%) 120142 (44.5%) 9431 (3.5%) 269705 1.5% 4.5%
New Jersey 8 78446 (36.5%) 129906 (60.4%) 6784 (3.2%) 215136 12.7% 25.8%
New Jersey 9 72695 (33.9%) 135406 (63.2%) 6110 (2.9%) 214211 6.6% 18.8%
New Jersey 10 27718 (15.6%) 147112 (82.7%) 3004 (1.7%) 177834 56.6% 15.0%
New Jersey 11 151617 (53.7%) 121036 (42.9%) 9763 (3.5%) 282416 2.6% 6.8%
Total   470608 (40.6%) 653602 (56.4%) 35092 (3.0%) 1159302 13.2% 13.3%

Winning Percentage:

16.7%
Voting Rights Analysis: Black voters supporting a candidate with crossover appeal could elect a candidate of choice in coalition with white voters.  Latino voters supporting a candidate with crossover appeal could elect a candidate of choice in coalition with white voters.
District Partisanship: 58.0% This super district would likely elect two Democrats and two
Republicans with one swing seat.

 

SUPER DISTRICT B - FIVE SEATS
     

            2000 Presidential Vote

    % Black % Latino
State CD Bush (%) Gore (%) Other (%) Total Origin Origin
New Jersey 1 77367 (33.8%) 144226 (63.0%) 7261 (3.2%) 228854 16.3% 8.2%
New Jersey 2 105630 (42.6%) 134345 (54.2%) 7906 (3.2%) 247881 13.8% 10.3%
New Jersey 3 114621 (43.3%) 141964 (53.6%) 8208 (3.1%) 264793 8.5% 3.8%
New Jersey 4 114309 (46.4%) 123764 (50.2%) 8301 (3.4%) 246374 7.5% 7.6%
New Jersey 12 101145 (40.2%) 141568 (56.2%) 9188 (3.6%) 251901 11.4% 5.5%
Total   513072 (41.4%) 685867 (55.3%) 40864 (3.3%) 1239803 11.4% 7.0%

Winning Percentage:

16.7%
Voting Rights Analysis: Black voters in coalition with Latino and white voters are well-positioned to elect a candidate of choice.
District Partisanship: 56.9% This super district would likely elect three Democrats and two
Republicans.

 

SUPER DISTRICT C - THREE SEATS
     

            2000 Presidential Vote

    % Black % Latino
State CD Bush (%) Gore (%) Other (%) Total Origin Origin
New Jersey 8 78446 (36.5%) 129906 (60.4%) 6784 (3.2%) 215136 12.7% 25.8%
New Jersey 10 27718 (15.6%) 147112 (82.7%) 3004 (1.7%) 177834 56.6% 15.0%
New Jersey 13 39554 (25.0%) 114586 (72.3%) 4338 (2.7%) 158478 11.3% 47.6%
Total   145718 (26.4%) 391604 (71.0%) 14126 (2.6%) 551448 26.5% 28.6%

Winning Percentage:

25%
Voting Rights Analysis: Black voters are well-positioned to elect a candidate of choice.  Even though Latino voters are above the victory threshold, they would likely need crossover support to elect a candidate of choice.
District Partisanship: 72.6% This super district would likely elect two Democrats and one
Republican.

 

This proposal is based on the current congressional districts of New Jersey.  Because current congressional districts are often the results of gerrymandering, the proposed super district boundaries are not as smooth and nice-looking as they could be in a similar proposal that made use of sub-congressional district data.