Arizona
Racial Representation Of Arizona's voting population of 1,512,619, roughly 21.1% are Latino and 2.6% are black.  Under the current eight-district system, Latino voters make up the majority of the population in the Fourth Congressional District, where the representative is Latino.  Under the proposed super districting plan, Latino voters are above the victory threshold in each of the two super districts, but would likely need support from white and other racial minority voters to elect a candidate of choice.
Political Analysis In the 2000 Presidential election, George W. Bush won Arizona with 51% of the vote over Al Gore's 45%.  Arizona's overall Democratic district partisanship 46.7%.  However, even though Democrats make up nearly half of Arizona's population, only two districts can be considered Democratic.  Under the proposed super districting plan, voters would likely elect three Democrats, three Republicans, and two candidates who could come from either party.

SUPER DISTRICT A - FIVE SEATS
     

            2000 Presidential Vote

     % Black % Latino
State CD Bush (%) Gore (%) Other (%) Total Origin Origin
Arizona 1 102068 (50.5%) 91920 (45.5%) 7931 (3.9%) 201919 1.2% 16.4%
Arizona 2 119386 (56.5%) 86251 (40.8%) 5760 (2.7%) 211397 2.1% 14.2%
Arizona 3 114259 (54.5%) 89308 (42.6%) 6140 (2.9%) 209707 2.3% 14.1%
Arizona 4 31542 (34.5%) 57198 (62.6%) 2598 (2.8%) 91338 7.5% 58.0%
Arizona 5 121462 (53.6%) 97604 (43.1%) 7635 (3.4%) 226701 2.7% 18.7%
Total   488717 (51.9%) 422281 (44.9%) 30064 (3.2%) 941062 2.6% 18.7%
Winning Percentage:

16.7%

Voting Rights Analysis: Even though Latino voters are above the victory threshold, to elect a candidate of choice they would likely need support from white and other racial minority voters.
District Partisanship:

46.5%

This super district would likely elect two Democrats and two
Republicans with one swing seat.
SUPER DISTRICT B - THREE SEATS
     

            2000 Presidential Vote

     % Black % Latino
State CD Bush (%) Gore (%) Other (%) Total Origin Origin
Arizona 6 118278 (60.9%) 72093 (37.1%) 3942 (2.0%) 194313 1.9% 17.2%
Arizona 7 49343 (38.3%) 74176 (57.6%) 5271 (4.1%) 128790 2.8% 50.6%
Arizona 8 123585 (49.7%) 114055 (45.9%) 10814 (4.4%) 248454 3.0% 18.2%
Total   291206 (50.9%) 260324 (45.5%) 20027 (3.5%) 571557 2.6% 25.2%
Winning Percentage: 25%
Voting Rights Anal: Even though Latino voters are above the victory threshold, to elect a candidate of choice they would likely need support from white and other racial minority voters.
District Partisanship: 47.1% This super district would likely elect one Democrat and one
Republican with one swing seat.

 

This proposal is based on the current congressional districts of Arizona.  Because current congressional districts are often the results of gerrymandering, the proposed super district boundaries are not as smooth and nice-looking as they could be in a similar proposal that made use of sub-congressional district data.