Plurality Wins in the 1980 Presidential Race:
John
Andersonís Role
In the1980 presidential election a strong independent candidate,
John Anderson, collected enough votes to lead 24 states being won by
plurality. Anderson received fewer popular votes than George Wallace
in 1968 and did not win any electoral votes, but had a clear impact.
Republican Ronald Reaganís victory in 1980 was overwhelming in
electoral votes, but much smaller in the popular vote. Since most
believe that the moderate-to-liberal Anderson took more votes away
from Democrat Jimmy Carter than from Reagan, it is possible that his
candidacy contributed to this distortion between Reaganís electoral
vote majority and popular vote majority.
If Anderson distorted the race, much of it could have occurred in
the races in which Reagan barely beat Carter. For instance, there
were 10 states in which Reagan won with a plurality and defeated
Carter by less than 3% of the vote. Of course, Anderson could have
distorted races in other states, but these 10 seem to be the most
likely candidates.
Although Anderson did receive 6% of the vote and may have enabled
either Reagan or Carter to win some states that they would have lost
in a two-way race, it is highly unlikely that Anderson had an
overall impact on the race, unlike George Wallace in 1968. For
instance, Reagan won majorities in many of the major electoral
states such as California, Texas, and Florida. The only major state
in which Anderson may have played the spoiler role was New York,
where Reagan beat Carter by a margin of only 2.7%.
Plurality victories in 1980
24 plurality victories total:
…
19 won by Reagan
…
5 won by Carter
Of 24 states won by a plurality:
…
3 were won with less than 45%
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