Predictions and Results for the 1998 US House Elections This was released following the November 1998 Election CVD's July 1997 Predictions Hold Up Well The following chart compares the predictions made the Center for Voting and Democracy in its July 1997 Monopoly Politics report (updated in August 1998 only to reflect changes in open seats and special elections -- see our web site at: www.fairvote.org) with the actual results in the November 4, 1998 elections. The Center's predictions were extremely accurate despite being made without any consideration of campaign developments in 1998 -- including campaign financing and the qualities of challengers to incumbents. Of the 361 predicted winners, 358 (99%) won-- including 346 (96%) by comfortable margins. Of the three predicted winners who lost, two were in open seat elections; thus, of 340 incumbents predicted to win in July 1997 who ended up running for re-election, 339 won. View our report, Monopoly Politics 1998, which included our predictions. Actual Results on November 4, 1998
Landslide Win	Comfortable Win	Loss
(20% margin)	(10% margin)	(seat change)

CVD's 7/97 Prediction

Uncontested Win*

All (94 seats)	94 (100%)	x x	0
GOP (55)	55/55	x x	0
DEM (39)	39/39	x x	0

Landslide Win (20% victory margin)

All (156 seats)	149/156 (96%)	155/156 (99%)	156/156 (100%)	0
GOP (73)	67/73	72/73	73/73	0
DEM (83)	82/83	83/83	83/83	0

Comfortable Win (10% victory margin)

All (70 seats)	41/70 (59%)	63/70 (90%)	69/70 (99%)	1
GOP (40)	22/40	35/40	39/40	1
DEM (30)	19/30	28/32	30/30	0

Win

All (41 seats		21/41 (51%)		34/41 (83%)		39/41 (95%)	2
GOP (24)		12/24		18/24		22/24	2
DEM (16)		8/16		15/16		16/16	0
IND (1)		1/1		1/1		1/1	0

All (63 seats)		21/63 (33%)		45/63 (71%)		56/63 (89%)	7
GOP (32)		12/32		20/32		28/32	4
DEM (31)		7/31		25/31		28/31	3

* Nearly all such incumbents had been predicted to win by landslide on July 1997.