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Women
Running for the U.S. House of Representatives, 2004
Originally
Published June
30, 2004
Last Revised
September 15, 2004
Women now hold 14% of the seats in the U.S. House of
Representatives, growing from 11% after the 1992 election--a
rate of growth that would lead to women holding half of the
House seats in 2124. Only 24 states have women representing
them in the House--down from 1993, when 27 states had at least
one female house member.
This analysis considers where women may gain or lose seats in
the 2004 elections, based on our Monopoly
Politics analysis. Our assessment is that women will
achieve a small increase in House representation with a net
gain of three seats.
Here is our review of women U.S. House candidacies in 2004.
Incumbents
Of the 60 women currently serving in the House, 57 are
running for reelection in 2004. We have projected
that 49 of those 57 will definitely hold their seats. In our
projections, 29 of these incumbents will be reelected by a
landslide, or a greater than 20% margin; 18 will be reelected
by at least a comfortable margin of 10%; and two will be
reelected after potentially tighter races. These projections
are based on our Monopoly Politics model,
which has been nearly
perfect in projecting winners in recent elections.
Only one incumbent, South Dakota���s Stephanie Herseth--who
narrowly won a special election to fill a vacancy this year--is
projected as vulnerable, meaning a seat considered most likely
to change hands in the 2004 election. No woman is running
opposite her.
Seven of the other 56 incumbents running for reelection are
facing potentially competitive races and could lose in the
2004 election to a male candidate in the general election.
These incumbents are: Connecticut-5���s Nancy Johnson (R),
Florida-5���s Virginia Brown-Waite (R), and New Mexico-1���s
Heather Wilson (R), who are all in competitive races with
district partisanship leaning slightly against them, and
Indiana-7���s Julia Carson (D), Nevada-1���s Shelley Berkley
(D), and Oregon-5���s Darlene Hooley (D) , who are all in
competitive races with district partisanship leaning slightly
in their favor. Kentucky-3���s Anne Northup is in a
competitive race in a district that is split almost exactly
evenly on partisanship.
Three female incumbents are not running for reelection in
2004.
- Georgia-4���s
Denise Majette (D) is vacating her seat to run in the
Senate race, but both
candidates running in this safely Democratic
district--Catherine Davis (R) and Cynthia McKinney
(D)--are women.
- Missouri-5���s
Karen McCarthy (D) is leaving an open seat. Jeanne Peterson has won the Republican primary in that
district, but
Democrats are very likely to hold the seat, and all
Democratic candidates are male.
- Washington-8���s
Jennifer Dunn (R) is vacating her seat, which is
considered competitive with a district partisanship that
is split evenly. No women are running in the general
election.
Open Seats
There are several women running for open seats in the 2004
election. One notable race is taking place in Pennsylvania's 13th district,
vacated by Joe Hoeffel. Melissa Brown won the Republican
primary and Allyson Schwartz the Democratic primary for this
district, essentially guaranteeing that this seat will be held
by a woman in the 109th Congress.
Many of the women running for open seats have good or at
least competitive chances. Four women
are favored to win open seats: North Carolina-5's
Virginia Foxx; Florida-20's Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D); Washington-5's Cathy McMorris
(R); and Wisconson-4's Gwen Moore (D). Those expected to face competitive
races are Louisiana-3's
Charmaine Degruise Caccioppi (D); Louisiana-7's Willie B.
Mount (D); Michigan-7's Sharon Renier (D); New
York-27's Nancy Naples (R); and New York-29's Samara Barend
(D).
Challengers
Several women also have the opportunity to win seats from
incumbents who are projected as either vulnerable or facing
competitive races. Texas-17's Arlene Wohlgemuth (R) stands a
good chance of winning a House seat over a vulnerable
incumbent, Congressman Chet Edwards (D). Six women may run in
competitive races against incumbents this November: Pennsylvania-6���s Lois Murphy
(D); Pennsylvania-8���s
Virginia Schrader (D); North Carolina-13���s
Virginia Johnson (R); Tennessee-4���s
Janice Bowling (R); Connecticut-4���s Diane Farrell (D); and Minnesota-6���s Patty Wetterling
(D).
Summary
We are projecting a net gain of three seats in the 2004
general election. We expect to win five open seats, and
lose two seats held by women incumbents who are not running
for reelection. Of the 57 incumbents running for
reelection, 49 are expected to retain their seats, seven face
competitive races, and one is projected as vulnerable.
Women are competitive in five open seat races. Where
women are challenging male incumbents, one has a good chance
of winning and six are considered competitive. The
closeness of many races prevents us from making projections in
twenty districts, and though there is the potential for great
gains by women, over recent years the growth of women's
representation in the U.S. House has been slow or
non-existent. This year's moderate projected gain--which
will give women 14.5% representation in the House--would not
alter this trend.
You can download an Excel spreadsheet
with more detailed information about the candidates and their
congressional districts.
This analysis was written by Program Associate Jill
Dannay.
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