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Illinois Poll Shows Support for IRV

February 2004

The Center for Voting and Democracy, in partnership with the Midwest Democracy Center and Roosevelt University,on Feb. 20-22 conducted a telephone poll in Illinois heading into the state's March 16 primary. The
poll included several questions directly about instant runoff voting.

Here is a preliminary review of results. There also was a news article in
the Daily Herald (IL).

* Our poll was done with 550 Democrats and 550 Republicans. We asked forsecond and third choices in both the U.S. Senate primaries (each major party has large fields of candidates), in the Democratic presidential primary and, for Republicans, for president in the general election.

* We asked four questions measuring support for instant runoff voting. Here are the results. Note the strongest support was for using IRV for
general elections for the President.

1. In some previous primary elections, the winner has earned less than 50% of the vote because votes are spread among several candidates. Are you comfortable with the current way of voting, which can result in a
non-majority winner, or would you like to see changes that would better
assure that the winner is supported by more than 50% of primary voters?
         Comfortable with current way of voting-  54%
         Would like to see changes - 41%
         Don't know - 5%

2. In some parts of the United States, voters can pick both a first-choice
candidate and a second-choice so that its easier to know which candidate has majority support. Would you like to have the option to pick a first-choice candidate and a second-choice candidate when you vote in Illinois primaries?
         Yes - 47.0%
         No  - 46.5%
         Not sure - 5%

3. Would you like to have this option when electing mayors and local elected officials?
         Yes  - 44%
         No  - 51%
         Not sure  - 5%

4. When electing the U.S. President, each state has a certain number of
Electoral College votes. In Illinois, all the Electoral College votes are
awarded to the candidate who gets the most votes in the popular election. Would you like a second choice option to better ensure that the winner of Illinois Electoral College votes has the majority support of Illinois voters?
          Yes - 50%
          No - 41%
          Not sure  - 9%

* Fully one-third of voters admit to being likely to switch from their favorite choice in the primary if they perceive that candidate would not
have a chance to win. That shows the self-fulfilling power of voter perception that can boost  the power of the media and of polling and increase the odds for candidates who have the resources to spend money early and get attention as a frontrunner.

* The survey of second choices had seful nuggets, showing an unofficial
alliance among supporters of the top two frontrunning Democrats in the Senate primary -- which could lead to attacks between those campaigns, as they're going after similar voters -- and showing just how solid John
Kerry's support now is in the Democratic presidential race.

* You can see the full survey at www.primarypoll.com . Also posted there is the Center's initial analysis, done in conjunction with James Lewis of Roosevelt University.


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