Illinois Poll
Shows Support for IRV
February 2004
The Center for Voting and
Democracy, in partnership with the Midwest Democracy Center and
Roosevelt University,on Feb. 20-22 conducted a telephone poll in
Illinois heading into the state's March 16 primary. The poll
included several questions directly about instant runoff
voting.
Here is a preliminary review of results. There also
was a news article in the Daily
Herald (IL).
* Our poll was done with
550 Democrats and 550 Republicans. We asked forsecond and third
choices in both the U.S. Senate primaries (each major party has
large fields of candidates), in the Democratic presidential primary
and, for Republicans, for president in the general
election.
* We asked four questions measuring support for
instant runoff voting. Here are the results. Note the strongest
support was for using IRV for general elections for the
President.
1. In some previous primary elections, the
winner has earned less than 50% of the vote because votes are spread
among several candidates. Are you comfortable with the current way
of voting, which can result in a non-majority winner, or would
you like to see changes that would better assure that the winner
is supported by more than 50% of primary
voters?
Comfortable with current way of voting-
54% Would like
to see changes -
41% Don't know -
5%
2. In some parts of the United States, voters can pick
both a first-choice candidate and a second-choice so that its
easier to know which candidate has majority support. Would you like
to have the option to pick a first-choice candidate and a
second-choice candidate when you vote in Illinois
primaries? Yes -
47.0% No -
46.5% Not sure -
5%
3. Would you like to have this option when electing mayors
and local elected
officials?
Yes -
44%
No - 51%
Not sure - 5%
4. When electing the U.S. President, each
state has a certain number of Electoral College votes. In
Illinois, all the Electoral College votes are awarded to the
candidate who gets the most votes in the popular election. Would you
like a second choice option to better ensure that the winner of
Illinois Electoral College votes has the majority support of
Illinois
voters?
Yes - 50%
No - 41%
Not sure - 9%
* Fully one-third of voters admit to
being likely to switch from their favorite choice in the primary if
they perceive that candidate would not have a chance to win. That
shows the self-fulfilling power of voter perception that can
boost the power of the media and of polling and increase the
odds for candidates who have the resources to spend money early and
get attention as a frontrunner.
* The survey of second
choices had seful nuggets, showing an unofficial alliance among
supporters of the top two frontrunning Democrats in the Senate
primary -- which could lead to attacks between those campaigns, as
they're going after similar voters -- and showing just how solid
John Kerry's support now is in the Democratic presidential
race.
* You can see the full survey at www.primarypoll.com .
Also posted there is the Center's initial analysis, done in
conjunction with James Lewis of Roosevelt
University. |