Monopoly Politics New York 2000

31 seats: 12R, 19D     D 60 

Using our analysis of district partisanship based on presidential results, Republicans are only projected to win five U.S. House seats – none with more than 55%. Yet easy incumbent re-elections and big victories are common for members of both major parties in New York – the majority of House seats were won by more than 40% in all five elections in each election between 1982 and 1990, and 28 of 31 seats were won by landslide in 1998. Nevertheless, the drop in Republicans' projected performance – as indicated by Bill Clinton defeating Bob Dole in every House district in 1996 – did help protect Louise Slaughter, John LaFalce and Maurice Hinchey from well-financed challenges in 1998. If the 2000 election reinforces these trends  – particularly in Rick Lazio's open seat – Republicans could face major problems in the coming years, perhaps helping to explain Michael Forbes' decision in 1999 to switch parties. Forbes' party switch makes him vulnerable, at least in his first run as a Democrat in 2000.
 
  1. Michael Forbes (D), 1994Vulnerable
 '98: 64'96: 55'94: 53['92: D 52]D 52
 
  2. OPEN [Rick Lazio (R), 1992]Vulnerable
 '98: 66'96: 64'94: 68'92: 53D 55
 
  3. Peter King (R),1992Win*
 '98: 64'96: 55'94: 59'92: 50D 54
 
  4. Carolyn McCarthy (D), 1996Win
 '98: 53'96: 57['94: R 50'92: R 50] D 57
 
  5. Gary Ackerman (D), 1983Landslide
 '98: 65'96: 64'94: 55'92: 52 D 61
 
  6. Gregory Meeks (D), 1998Landslide
 '98: 100['96: D 85'94: D 80'92: D 81] D 86
 
  7. Joseph Crowley (D), 1998Landslide
 '98: 69['96: D 71'94: D 87'92: D 57]D 69
 
  8. Jerrold Nadler (D), 1992Landslide
 '98: 86'96: 82'94: 82'92: 81D 79
 
  9. Anthony Weiner (D), 1998Landslide
 '98: 66['96: D 75'94: D 73'92: D 89] D 67
 
  10. Ed Towns (D), 1982Landslide
 '98: 92'96: 91'94: 89'92: 96 U D 91
 
  11. Major Owens (D), 1982Landslide
 '98: 90'96: 92'94: 89'92: 94 U D 92
 
  12. Nydia Velazquez (D), 1992Landslide
 '98: 83'96: 85'94: 92 U'92: 77D 85
 
  13. Vito Fossella (R), 1997Comfortable*
 '98: 65  
['97: 61
 '96: R 62
 '94 R 71
 '92 R 56]
 		D 52
 
 
  14. Carolyn Maloney (D), 1992Landslide
 '98: 77'96: 72'94: 64'92: 50D 71
 
  15. Charles Rangel (D), 1970Landslide
 '98: 93'96: 91'94: 97 U'92: 95 U D 90
 
  16. Jose Serrano (D), 1990Landslide
 '98: 95'96: 96'94: 96 U'92: 91 UD 94
 
  17. Eliot Engel (D), 1988Landslide
 '98: 88'96: 85'94: 78'92: 80D 86
 
  18. Nita Lowey (D), 1988Landslide
 '98: 83 U'96: 64'94: 57'92: 56 D 59
 
  19. Sue Kelly (R), 1994Win*
 '98: 62'96: 46'94: 52['92: R 60] R 51
 
  20. Benjamin Gilman (R), 1972Comfortable*
 '98: 58'96: 57'94: 67'92: 66D 55
 
  21. Michael McNulty (D), 1988Landslide
 '98: 74'96: 66'94: 67'92: 63D 58
 
  22. John Sweeney (R), 1998Win
 '98: 55['96: R 60'94: R 73'92: R 65]R 54
 
  23. Sherwood Boehlert (R), 1982Landslide*
 '98: 81 U'96: 64'94: 71'92: 64R 53
 
  24. John McHugh (R), 1992Landslide*
 '98: 79'96: 71'94: 79'92: 61 R50-50
 
  25. James Walsh (R), 1988Comfortable*
 '98: 69'96: 55'94: 58'92: 56D 52
 
  26. Maurice Hinchey (D), 1992Comfortable*
 '98: 62'96: 55'94: 49'92: 50 D 52
 
  27. Thomas Reynolds (R), 1998Comfortable
 '98: 57['96: R 60'94: R 75'92: R 63]R 55
 
  28. Louise Slaughter (D), 1986Comfortable
 '98: 65'96: 57'94: 57'92: 55D 56
 
  29. John LaFalce (D), 1974Comfortable*
 '98: 57'96: 62'94: 55'92: 55D 52
 
  30. Jack Quinn (R), 1992Comfortable*
 '98: 68'96: 55'94: 67'92: 52D 58
 
  31. Amo Houghton (R), 1986Landslide
 '98: 68'96: 72'94: 85 U'92: 71R 55