What You Won't Learn From The Polls

Pundits predict a Democratic sweep on November 7, 2006. But that's only the the tip of the iceberg...

1. What Do Votes Have To Do With It?
   Why a Democratic vote majority might not mean a Congressional majority
2. Monopoly Politics
   FairVote's seminal prediction model and how, on November 9, we'll predict nearly all House winners... for 2008
3. The Untouchables
   The growing list of House members on total cruise control
4. The Gerrymander & Money Myths
   The real roots of non-competition and GOP advantage
5. The Republican Turnout Machine Myth
   If not real in 2004, why would it be now?
6. The 50-State Question
   Measuring Dean's gamble in 2006... and 2016
7. Downballot GOP Blues
   What a Democratic wave could mean for state legislatures
8. Of Spoilers & Minority Rule
   Where split votes could swing seats - and already have
9. The Democrats' Paradox
   Why a win could shake up House leaders and the presidential race
10. Slouching Toward Diversity
    Who's to gain when a few more white men lose?

With appendices:

1. Incumbency Bumps: Measuring the bonus for House members, 1996-2004
2. Horserace Talk: The inside track on projecting 2006 Congressional races
3. Open Seat Analysis: How the Monopoly Politics model measures 2006 open seats

[Download the Report - PDF 637kb]
[Check out Monopoly Politics 2006]