International Voting System News / UK in the Spotlight

To: Center for Voting and Democracy Key List
Fr: Rob Richie, Executive Director, www.fairvote.org
March 3, 1999

There is a good deal of domestic news-in-progress. Look for an update next week, including news of the introduction of a new bill in Congress to allow full representation systems for House elections, real movement for "instant runoff voting" in state legislatures and more on how the Department of Justice has taken positions in support of proportional voting systems in New York and Illinois.

The next few months will be critical ones internationally. Israel, Indonesia and South Africa will hold elections with proportional representation. Italy will hold a national referendum on its "mixed member" form of proportional representation (PR), and the Japanese parliament may take steps to makes its system less proportional. New Zealand will prepare for its second PR election later this year. Of perhaps most influence in the United States, British voters will use forms of PR to elect its delegation to the European parliament and its new legislatures in Wales and Scotland. A bill in the House of Commons is ready to institute mixed member PR for city council elections and instant runoff voting for mayoral elections in London in 2000.

Below is a long excerpt from a news-filled assessment of Britain's constitutional reforms by University of Notre Dame doctoral student Thomas Lundberg, and a series of short items about other international elections and electoral system talk. I've asked Thomas to write periodic updates during the year as matters progress in Britain. Today's full update and future ones will be sent to our "core list" rather than this larger list.

Following are these items:

- South Africa's PR Elections Set for June 2

- New Zealand: Prime Minister Shipley Changes Mind on PR

- Italy to vote on election system April 18

- Japan: LDP seeks to reduce PR seats in Diet

- Indonesia Keeps PR After All

- Israel Holds Primaries for List Seats

- Bangladesh: "Voters Ignore Violence" - Reuters headline

- Quebec: More Statistics about a Flawed System

- United Kingdom News

- Excerpt from Thomas Lundberg's Assessment of UK Reform

* South Africa's PR Elections Set for June 2

South Africa converted to proportional representation for its first all-race elections in 1994. That widely-recognized success contributed to a 1996 vote to put the principle of proportional representation in the nation's constitution.

The Associated Press reports on March 3 that President Nelson Mandela told parliament that South Africa would hold its second proportional representation elections on June 2. Mandela is constitutionally barred from officially proclaiming the election date until after April 30, but he said he was unofficially revealing it early to allow people still registering to vote to know where they will be on ballot day.

Mandela has led the nation since 1994's all-race ballot ended white rule, plans to retire after the election. He is almost certain to be succeeded by Deputy President Thabo Mbeki. Recent opinion polls have shown the ruling African National Congress easily ahead of any other political party and likely to win another clear majority in the 400-strong National Assembly.

* New Zealand: Prime Minister Shipley Changes Mind on PR

New Zealanders adopted a German Style "mixed member proportional" (MMP) system in a 1993 national referendum. Its leading political opinions were the ruling National Party. The

Wellington Dominion in February reports: "Prime Minster Jenny Shipley says she no longer believes first past the post is the best electoral system for New Zealand. Mrs Shipley, an opponent of MMP [Mixed Member Proportional] when it was first introduced at the last election, said on radio in London yesterday the real question now was whether New Zealanders had chosen the best form of proportional representation.

"She confirmed she would not tell her British counterpart, Tony Blair, whether Britain should abandon first past the post in favour of some form of proportional representation. Mrs Shipley, whose job it will be this year to convince voters she is an enthusiastic and effective leader under MMP, said the new system was working for New Zealand.

"She rejected the interviewers claims that New Zealanders were tired of MMP and wanted to move back to the previous system. 'I think that's probably going further that is the situation..... I think that people have found the change a very new and to some extent a disruptive experience. But for all that I think that PR can deliver good governing systems, and certainly has improved the diversity of Parliament. It also certainly slows down the way in which the governing system can work and there is still debate about it at home".

Mrs Shipley said she had not voted for MMP and had always felt first past the post for a small country like New Zealand was better. But asked if "in her heart" she wanted a return to the old system Mrs Shipley said: "I do not... I think there is a lot of discussion in New Zealand as to whether the format of MMP was the correct one."

* Italy to vote on election system April 18

Italians will have a non-binding referendum on April 18 in the third referendum in eight years on its electoral system. As Reuters reported on February 19 -- in a story from which many of the details below are drawn, along with a January article in the Financial Times -- the vote is "in the hope of ridding the country once and for all of its notoriously fragile coalitions and unstable governments."

The problem for Italians seeking this goal is that Italy's politics are far too geographically fragmented to result in one party winning a majority of seats in a straight winner-take-all system -- or, if it occurs, it will be with that party having very little representation in significant portions of the country.

The referendum will ask voters to replace the proportional representation element of the current system used in 25% of seats with a system in which 90% are elected by winner-take-all. If the voters support change, as seems likely, a law must be drawn up on how to assign the 155 seats in the lower house Chamber of Deputies that are currently chosen proportionally. If not, the system remains as it is.

The current government has drawn up a draft law on how to change the system if the referendum passes. According to the decree, 90 percent of the 630 seats in the Chamber would be

elected by a first past-the-post system. If no one candidate takes more than 50 percent of the vote the leading two

candidates go to a second round.

Of the remaining 10 percent of seats, half would go to the coalition that has won overall, while the rest would guarantee smaller parties seats in the chamber. But the bill has met opposition from the centre-right opposition and from some

in the centre-left ruling coalition.

Politically, the referendum is supported by politicians from Italy's main political parties. (In a typically naive comment, Walter Veltroni, who heads the left wing DS, said the referendum opens the way for a two-party system and for guaranteeing government stability.) Both Forza Italia and Alleanza Nazionale, the main rightwing parties, also support the referendum. Italy's greens and the smaller leftwing parties have said that they will campaign for a "No" vote.

* Japan: LDP seeks to reduce PR seats in Diet

The Liberal Democratic Party has dominated Japanese politics since World War II. In the 1990s, the electoral system was changed from one semi-proportional system (the single-non-transferable vote, in relatively small multi-seat districts) to another (a "parallel" mixed member PR system in which the party that wins most districts seats can still win most of the PR seats). A Feb. 19 article from Kyodo reports that: "The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) plans to call on opposition parties to agree on the establishment of a council to discuss a reduction of seats in the House of Representatives, LDP sources said Friday.

"The decision follows a policy agreement to cut the number of seats that was reached by the LDP and the Liberal Party (LP) in January in forming a coalition government, the sources said.

The two parties agreed to cut the number of proportional representation seats in the 500-member lower house to 150 from the current 200. The 300 single-seat constituency seats will remain intact.

"The two parties originally planned to submit legislation needed to implement the cuts in the current regular Diet session, and to aim at reducing the seats from the next lower house election, which must be held by October 2000, officials of the two parties said earlier.

"An executive member of the LDP Diet Affairs Committee said of the LDP's proposal on setting up the council before submitting the legislation, 'It is an issue that concerns all Diet members. We cannot force them to accept the policy.'...

"Meanwhile, Tetsuzo Fuyushiba, secretary general of the New Komeito party, said Friday parties should start discussing among them how to rectify the lower house election system.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiromu Nonaka told a regular news conference Friday that it is difficult for the lower house election system to gain public understanding because it has defects. Nonaka said under the current system, candidates who failed to be elected to a single-seat constituency seat can win in the race for proportional representation seats.

"The sources said the LDP plans to have the council also discuss reform of the election system in an effort to win understanding from the New Komeito, which is opposed to the LDP-LP plan. However, the LDP may have difficulties in persuading the LP on the proposal to set up the council, because the LP says the two parties should first jointly submit a bill to the current Diet session in accordance with their agreement, the sources said."

* Indonesia Keeps PR After All

In a case of reason emerging victorious, Indonesia in January backed away from plans to eliminate proportional representation. PR had been discredited for many by its use under former dictator Suharto - in tightly-controlled elections dominated by Suharto's party -- but analyses of the impact of winner-take-all elections on representation of the nation's great diversity and with tens of parties getting ready for elections this year led to maintaining a PR system.

Associated Press reported on 1/28: "Indonesia's parliamentary leaders yesterday resolved remaining differences over three political laws, clearing the way for the first democratic elections in 40 years. The heads of the four factions hammered out complex last-minute compromises to allow a final vote on today's deadline, lifting fears that a deadlock would cause a delay in the June 7 vote....

"Parliament compromised on a mix of district and proportional voting, rather than a district system as proposed by the government. Seats will be allotted proportionally but parties will have to field candidates in up to 324 districts to get on all

the ballots, a tall order for many of the more than 100 parties that want to participate. Diplomats expected only 10-15 parties to run."

* Israel Holds Primaries for List Seats

Israel on May 17 will hold its second elections with its new system in which voters cast one vote directly for prime minister and one for parliament: a splitting of votes that had the unintended consequence of further fracturing of the party system in the first use of the system. As one way of opening up the system to more democratic control, the Labor Party -- one of the two major parties -- held primaries in February.

Associated Press on February 16 reports: "A Moroccan-born history professor won the elections for the Israeli opposition Labor Party's list of candidates for parliament, according to unofficial results published today. Labor hopes the top candidate, Shlomo Ben-Ami, will help lure voters of Sephardic, or Middle Eastern, descent away from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party in May 17 elections....

"In Monday's primaries, 163,000 registered party members could choose among 82 candidates. The list of candidates for parliament is not determined entirely by the primaries. Party leader Ehud Barak, who won the party's nomination for prime minister, has already been given the No. 1 slot, followed by second place for Shimon Peres, a former prime minister from Labor, and then by the candidates elected in the primaries....

Barak has also reserved several secure slots for newcomers and outsiders who he hopes will make the Labor list more attractive to a broader group of voters.

"Last week, Netanyahu's Likud Party put together what was widely considered a list with women and candidates of Sephardic, or Middle Eastern, background, scoring in the top five. Under Israel's system of proportional representation, the number of votes each party receives nationwide

determines the number of seats it is awarded in parliament."

* Bangladesh: "Voters Ignore Violence" - Reuters headline

Bangladesh is one of a number of decidedly unrealized democracies that uses plurality voting -- yet avoids the criticism of proportional representation nations like Israel

and Italy. A Reuters story recently reported, under the headline above: "Voters recently turned out despite opposition attempts to block the second of three days of nationwide municipal

elections. An alliance of three opposition parties enforced a nationwide strike and at least five people have

died in a spate of bombings and violent clashes."

* Quebec: More Statistics about a Flawed System

CVD member Thomas Jones provides the following facts about the 1998 Quebec National Assembly election, in which plurality voting was used in 125 single member districts.

- The highest district had 5.23 more votes than the

lowest district. The highest winner had 7.54 more

votes than the lowest winner.

- 52 of 125 winners had less than half the votes in

their districts.

- 151 losers had more total votes than the lowest winner.

88 losers had more votes than the lowest district vote total.

- The highest loser had more votes than 81 of 125 winners.

* British Developments: Prime Minister Blair Shows Signs of Support for PR

A February 18 article in the Financial Times reports that: "Tony Blair has sanctioned the start of a campaign to secure a proportional voting system for general elections, as part of efforts to shore up Labour's increasingly fragile working relationship with the Liberal Democrats.

"In a strategy endorsed by the prime minister but which could split his party, Labour MPs who support electoral reform are to put the case for radical change to activists and the wider public, in advance of a referendum. The same MPs, with the blessing of Mr Blair, are to speak out publicly in favour of the government retaining its close links with the Liberal Democrats.

"Mr Blair has declined to call for the ditching of the existing first-past-the-post voting system, but Labour MPs who support reform believe he will eventually back change. The prime minister has been stung by the intense opposition from some Labour MPs and trade unions to change.

"Last week he met five Blairite Labour MPs who support reform. 'He is positive about reform. The message

was to get out and do the business, do the groundwork. It will help him not just on electoral reform but also on

closer links with the Liberal Democrats, which he is getting slagged off for,' one of the MPs present said."

"Mr Blair suggested May's Scottish parliament elections, which will use a proportional voting system, will demonstrate the merits of reform. The result in Scotland will almost certainly lead to a power-sharing administration between Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

"Labour MPs who support reform increasingly believe the referendum should be held after the next general election, even though that would breach the party's manifesto pledge to hold it in this parliament."

* Report from the Electoral Reform Society

The Electoral Reform Society, long-time of proportional representation in the United Kingdom, provided the following summary of developments in the UK in early February:

House of Lords

The Government has published a white paper on stage 2 of its reform of the Lords. The Government is setting up a Royal Commission on House of Lords Reform to report in 2000.

Europe, Scotland and Wales

These three bills have now received the Royal assent and the Scottish and Welsh elections will take place in early may. They will use a two vote AMS (MMP style system) but they will use two ballot papers rather than one. The European system has also received its assent and all the preparations are now in pace. the election will take place on the 10th of June.

London

The Government of London Bill has started going through the Commons, this includes AMS for the assembly and supplementary vote for the mayor. [NOTE: Supplementary vote is a variation of instant runoff voting where all but the top two candidates are eliminated simultaneously.]

Local Government

The McIntosh Commission or to give it is full name the Commission on Local government and the Scottish Parliament, has already recommended PR for Scottish local government and is now looking at systems. You can find more information on their web site: Http://www.lg-gov-commission.gov.uk/

A number of local authorities have also volunteered to have elected Mayor's the first being the London borough of Lewisham. There is some noise that the government may change its mind about PR for local government in England and Wales.

# # #

A Critical Assessment of New Labour's Constitutional Reforms for Britain, By Thomas Lundberg

The Labour government in Britain has begun making a number of potentially far-reaching constitutional reforms. The main developments so far include legislation for the devolution of power to Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and Greater London (with a directly-elected mayor and assembly); reform of the House of Lords; a proportional electoral method for the election of the UK delegation to the European Parliament; and a promised referendum on a more proportional electoral system for the House of Commons. On the surface, these appear to be almost revolutionary changes for one of the most conservative (and centralized) constitutional orders in the democratic world, although a closer examination reveals the retention of at least some centralizing features, enough to warrant an assessment of Prime Minister Tony Blair's true intentions.

The biggest challenge to centralization comes in the form of devolution of power from London to some of Britain's regions. While it will remain a unitary state, the United Kingdom will take on the appearance of some federal systems, with elected assemblies in place in Northern Ireland (1998), Scotland (1999), Wales (1999), and Greater London (2000). These assemblies will have varying degrees of power, but the principle of centralized Westminster rule over all the regions of Britain has been dealt a serious blow. It is likely that the level of responsibilities assumed by each assembly will evolve, based on demands by politicians and the public, and the legitimacy conferred by direct election will make it hard for Westminster to resist calls for greater autonomy.

Furthermore, in yet another break with the past, all four of these assemblies will use electoral systems of proportional representation (PR), instead of Britain's traditional plurality ("first-past-the-post") voting system. Northern Ireland's assembly was elected via the single transferable vote system, in which voters rank candidates in order of their preference. The other assemblies will be elected using the additional member system, based on the German model, and used in New Zealand under the name "Mixed Member Proportional" or MMP. Here, voters cast one vote for a constituency candidate, and one for a political party. Around half of the assembly members are elected by plurality in single member constituencies from the voters' first votes, but the rest are elected from party lists in such a way that each party's total delegation (constituency and list-based added together) is proportional to the percentage of the second votes cast for it. In other words, the list candidates are used to compensate parties which fail to win enough constituency seats, due to a lack of a geographically- concentrated support.

It is likely that PR was chosen for the new assemblies to ensure broad support for devolution. If plurality voting had been chosen instead, it is likely that Labour, with its high levels of support in Scotland and Wales, for example, would win huge seat majorities in those assemblies on less than half the popular vote. Because those two regions have four-party political systems, and the support of smaller parties was essential to give legitimacy to the radical changes proposed by Labour, the use of PR (which would allow for representation of all four parties) was essential.

Labour has also honored its 1997 election manifesto commitment to use PR for Britain's delegation to the European Parliament, a change from plurality voting that will be introduced in time for this June's election. The House of Lords tried to prevent this change, with the upper house's Conservative party majority claiming that it did not oppose PR in principle, only the use of "closed list" PR, in which parties determine the list positions of their candidates, and voters are not able to influence these rankings (and thus the chances for successful election). Some other European Union countries use "open list" PR, in which voters have some degree of influence over the positions of individual candidates. Cynics pointed out that the real reason for Conservative opposition to the introduction of PR had nothing to do with the closed list nature of the proposal, but rather the party's long-standing opposition to PR in principle, fearing that this would be the thin edge of the wedge pushing PR closer to reality for the House of Commons.

Indeed, electoral reform of the lower house of Parliament, the House of Commons, was the subject of the prime minister's attention, and the 1998 Jenkins Commission inquiry into more proportional alternatives to the current plurality system recommended a radical new electoral system untested anywhere in the world. Called "Alternative Vote Plus," this hybrid system combines single member constituencies, in which the winning candidate would need the support of a majority of voters [using the alternative vote, known here as "instant runoff voting"], with a small number of candidates elected from party lists in clusters of single member constituencies. Voters would have two votes; one for a single member constituency candidate, in which voters would rank candidates in order of preference, with votes being transferred from candidates with the lowest amount of support if no candidate wins a majority of first preferences. The second vote is for a party (with the commission recommending "open list" conditions), with seats to be allocated in such a way that parties which are under-represented in regions of about 8-12 single member constituencies would gain list MPs.